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TORONTO – There are nonetheless six weeks of runway earlier than the Aug. 2 commerce deadline and groups stay within the essential interval of evaluation and planning for Main League Baseball’s annual summer time swap-fest.
The final route is evident for golf equipment just like the Toronto Blue Jays, who at 38-28 personal the third-best file within the American League and are well-positioned to make the playoffs, particularly now that six groups per league advance.
Very clearly, then, they’re going to be including.
But with the New York Yankees at 49-17, main the AL East by 11 video games, the Blue Jays have to place their roster not solely to outlive the common season, however to be able to knocking off prime golf equipment for as much as 4 playoff rounds this October.
What precisely does that appear like?
“It is depth in areas, complementary skill-sets in others,” GM Ross Atkins stated final week when requested how he may increase the membership past apparent pitching wants. “We have spent a variety of time on that during the last month and we’ll proceed to within the coming weeks.”
Fairly obscure, possible intentionally so, as there’s little cause for Atkins to tip his hand this early and provides rival entrance places of work added leverage in commerce talks. And to be truthful, their pathways to enchancment aren’t essentially apparent, with a number of totally different potential approaches.
With that in thoughts, let’s envision some eventualities that would attraction to the Blue Jays because the summer time unfolds.
Based mostly on conversations with a number of trade sources, every thing is in play at this level, with the Blue Jays surveying the marketplace for beginning pitchers, relievers and place gamers. Finest-case situation, their current gamers step up, decreasing the necessity for out of doors assist. But when they falter, they’ll want additions — even when which means buying and selling from the big-league roster to make the mandatory enhancements.
First, what can the Jays commerce away?
The farm system stays deep, even with the latest promotion of Gabriel Moreno, and the Blue Jays have a possibility for a major restock in subsequent month’s draft due to the compensatory picks they obtained for the departures of Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray.
Nonetheless, value noting is that they’ve already traded their first-round picks from the previous two drafts (Austin Martin within the Jose Berrios deal final summer time and Gunnar Hoglund within the Matt Chapman commerce this spring) they usually have to be cautious of stripping down too far.
Moreno’s early displaying solely reinforces that he’s primarily untouchable, so anticipate groups to start their asks for anybody of consequence with infield prospect Orelvis Martinez. With a .789 OPS as a 20-year-old in double-A, there’s a variety of promise there and the Blue Jays will, fairly clearly, be reluctant to maneuver him.
Groups are additionally more likely to eye the promising cache of younger arms at high-A Vancouver, the place the lightning-armed Ricky Tiedeman, chance-to-move-quick Yosver Zulueta and polished Sem Robberse are all having sturdy seasons.
Atkins, nevertheless, has predominantly traded from the fringes of his prospect-pool base and the Blue Jays may very effectively observe that development once more this summer time. The 2021 Berrios deal was an exception and solely an ideal match on a number of ranges prompted him to take that plunge.
Moreno’s ascension does create a surplus of plus catchers on the big-league degree and it’s attainable the Blue Jays may swap out a bit there, or elsewhere on the major-league roster underneath the fitting circumstances. All of it relies on what the market presents and, in fact, a participant’s vaccination standing.
So, what are some prospects?
STARTING ROTATION
State of affairs 1: Add Depth
With Hyun-Jin Ryu set to overlook the rest of the season, the Blue Jays’ beginning rotation now lacks depth behind new No. 5 starter Ross Stripling. The season-long struggles of Yusei Kikuchi solely compound the uncertainty in the back of Toronto’s rotation.
Which means it’s essential to discover the marketplace for rotation assist, and with that in thoughts Atkins has indicated the Blue Jays intend to see what upgrades could also be attainable there. Likelihood is, the Blue Jays will discover all choices, however due to the trio of Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and Berrios, they don’t have to drive a deal for a high-end starter so long as they’ve a dependable entrance 5.
The depth method is one Atkins took in 2020, when he added Stripling, Ray and Taijuan Walker on the deadline. Ray and Walker have been comparatively cheap as a result of the previous was a reclamation undertaking within the midst of his worst season whereas the latter got here with sturdiness questions.
All names listed here are speculative, however for depth choices suppose alongside the strains of Chad Kuhl, Zach Davies, Jordan Lyles or Jose Quintana. Being extra inventive, would the Rockies half with German Marquez, who’s struggling this season and is owed $15.3 million subsequent 12 months, and is {that a} swing the Blue Jays are keen to take, akin to Ray a few years in the past?
State of affairs 2: Swing Massive
Although Atkins speaks about including depth and complementary gamers, the Blue Jays’ latest observe data exhibits they like going after stars, too. It was simply final 12 months that they despatched Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson to Minnesota for Berrios, and over the winter they landed Kevin Gausman whereas additionally chasing Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard in free company.
These pursuits mirror curiosity in high-impact gamers, so we should always think about what which may appear like this summer time.
Righty Frankie Montas is entrance and centre in that regard as one of many few veterans to outlive Oakland’s low season purge. He’s confirmed, pitched in pennant races and his per-nine stroll and strikeout ratios of two.2/9.3 are proper within the Blue Jays wheelhouse.
Equally, Reds righty Luis Castillo’s ratio is at 2.9/8.4 in eight begins since coming back from a shoulder harm (conversely, Tyler Mahle is presumed unavailable to the Blue Jays as he was positioned on the restricted checklist when Cincinnati visited Toronto final month). Each Castillo and Montas have one 12 months of arbitration left, which means they’d additionally fill a necessity for the Blue Jays in 2023.
BULLPEN
State of affairs 1: Add Depth
Maybe the clearest want for the Blue Jays at current is a swing-and-miss arm for the bullpen and if there are methods so as to add high-strikeout late-game reduction, anticipate the Blue Jays to be lively.
A mannequin commerce alongside the depth route could be the Yankees acquisition of Clay Holmes final summer time, figuring out somebody who’s underperforming and serving to them reset by means of utilization and mechanical changes. The Blue Jays tried this with much less success final 12 months once they acquired Brad Hand and Joakim Soria on the deadline, so there’s excessive danger right here in addition to excessive reward.
Related veteran varieties this summer time may embrace Steve Cishek and Sergio Romo, whereas maybe there’s extra in somebody like Noe Ramirez (8.6/3.4 strikeouts-to-walks per 9), who leads the majors with 31 appearances this 12 months however has a 4.91 ERA and 5.21 FIP.
State of affairs 2: Swing Massive
Extra certainty is clearly most popular and a longer-term piece like David Bednar or Gregory Soto would make excellent, however possible prohibitively costly, enhances to nearer Jordan Romano.
Such a daring strike could be a departure for the Blue Jays, so leases like righty David Robertson, placing out 12.4 per 9 whereas closing for the Cubs; Michael Fulmer, who has a 2.16 ERA with the Tigers; or lefty Andrew Chafin, who has a participant choice for 2023 and an identical .579 OPS allowed versus hitters on both aspect of the plate, could also be extra possible candidates to fortify supervisor Charlie Montoyo’s late-game manoeuvring.
POSITION PLAYERS
State of affairs 1: Add Depth
Whereas handedness solely tells a part of the story, there is a case to be made for including steadiness to a Blue Jays lineup that tilts closely to the fitting. Fortunately for the Blue Jays, there seems to be an honest quantity of choice on this market – maybe greater than there may be on the pitching aspect.
Recently, Cavan Biggio’s been filling that position properly, however his efficiency bears watching within the weeks forward. Raimel Tapia has additionally been hitting higher of late, however he’s been a below-average defender with the Blue Jays and he presents restricted energy. If both falters, the Jays might want to look elsewhere.
Such a participant would profit the roster in a few methods. Maybe most clearly, he may begin in opposition to some right-handed pitchers, particularly those that wrestle in opposition to left-handed batters (Bailey Ober or Dane Dunning to call a pair).
However extra broadly, a high quality left-handed hitter would give the Blue Jays totally different choices in the case of constructing out their lineups. For example, Atlanta usually slotted Joc Pederson between right-handed hitters like Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, Dansby Swanson and Travis d’Arnaud throughout final 12 months’s World Sequence run.
If the Blue Jays acquired an influence lefty bat, they may slot that hitter between two right-handed hitters (Alejandro Kirk and Teoscar Hernandez, for example), giving him the platoon benefit every time opposing managers usher in right-handed relievers late in video games. In concept, that sort of setup can put a lefty bat extra usually, nevertheless it’s only one instance amongst many. Backside line, extra good hitters create extra good choices for Montoyo.
Even past the on-field manufacturing, the fitting veteran bat may assist information a notably younger and nonetheless inexperienced group by means of what’s wanted to beat the challenges forward. The departures of veteran free brokers Semien, Corey Dickerson and Jarrod Dyson left a little bit of a void in that regard and a few imagine there’s worth in including place gamers with playoff expertise.
The $22 million he’s owed for 2023 and the buyout on a 2024 membership choice is a matter, however Mike Moustakas probably suits that mould. He gained a World Sequence with the Kansas Metropolis Royals in 2015, bats left-handed and has expertise at first, second and third. Earlier than he signed with the Reds, Montoyo paid him a recruiting go to, so the Blue Jays have at minimal appreciated him prior to now.
Change-hitter Carlos Santana is underperforming each his anticipated Weighted On-Base Common (.293 versus .351) and a number of other public projections for his 2022 output and has been to the post-season 4 instances with Cleveland. He got here up by means of the minor-leagues underneath Blue Jays CEO Mark Shapiro and Atkins.
The Rockies’ path ahead isn’t actually clear, however Charlie Blackmon’s slugging proportion is up this season and with three journeys to the playoffs on his resume, he’s an intriguing on a regular basis left-handed choice within the outfield. He advised reporters on the finish of final season that he intends to train his $10 million 2023 participant choice, which can imply he’s greater than only a rental.
Whereas the commerce market’s nonetheless taking form, it seems plenty of different pending free brokers shall be out there subsequent month, together with left-handed hitters Andrew Benintendi ($6.6 million wage), Tyler Naquin ($4.03 million), Ben Gamel ($1.8 million, now on injured checklist) and Kole Calhoun ($2 million wage, $5.5 million staff choice for 2023).
Change-hitters Josh Bell ($10 million) and Robbie Grossman ($5 million wage) must also be out there whereas one supply believes Ian Happ ($6.85 million wage) shall be moved although he’s arbitration-eligible by means of 2023.
With ample choice right here, the Blue Jays will be capable to add in the event that they so select.
State of affairs 2: Swing Massive
Ideally, the Blue Jays’ current gamers produce. Even when not, complementary strikes for bench gamers could possibly be sufficient to equip this staff’s roster for a protracted playoff run. However what if accidents or poor performances drive the Blue Jays’ hand?
Earlier than the lockout, groups requested the Blue Jays concerning the likes of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen in trades. It’s conceivable these conversations may re-start, although the return would clearly should be vital. Gurriel Jr. and Hernandez have recovered from sluggish begins, however the emergence of Gabriel Moreno would enable the Blue Jays to ponder transferring Jansen for the fitting return.
Dream targets Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani are unlikely to be unavailable, however what about Joey Votto, who has a .931 OPS since coming back from the COVID injured checklist a month in the past? Maybe there’s a inventive framework during which the Reds assist subsidize the deal by taking Ryu’s contract again to assist degree off the cash, or the Blue Jays swallow a lot of the $32 million he’s nonetheless owed to cut back the quantity of prospect capital to get Castillo, too?
Concepts starting from far-fetched to practical will get whittled down within the coming weeks with the outcomes on the sphere serving to to form the entrance workplace’s subsequent strikes at each flip. As Atlanta confirmed final summer time, the most effective strikes aren’t at all times the flashiest ones, however moderately those that plug the fitting gap with the fitting match.
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