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2022 NBA MVP Odds
Consensus odds up to date as of Jan. 5.
I’m monitoring the MVP race for the remainder of the season utilizing my mannequin to find out if there’s worth inside the betting markets. And on this second installment there’s been some motion among the many prime names. For extra on the methodology you’ll be able to take a look at the primary put up here.
Once I first printed my NBA prediction fashions on Dec. 22, each my linear regression and logistic regression mannequin pegged Kevin Durant as having one of the best worth to win the league’s Most Useful Participant Award.
At that time, Durant was main the league in scoring and the Nets had one of the best file within the Jap Convention at 21-9, regardless of inconsistent play from James Harden and the absence of Kyrie Irving. Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and DeMar Derozan rounded out the highest 5 MVP candidates, in keeping with my mannequin, however a lot has occurred across the league in that quick period of time.
Though the highest 5 hasn’t modified, their positions definitely have. Right here’s how the listing is shaping up within the early days of 2022.
2022 MVP Mannequin Projections
Right here’s a take a look at the percentages to win the NBA MVP award in comparison with my mannequin’s projections. Reminder: This can be a snapshot of the race at a given time limit, so these numbers will evolve.
2022 MVP Race
Stephen Curry
In keeping with each my linear regression and logistic regression mannequin, Curry presents one of the best worth to win MVP, which is true according to the betting markets which have him at about +125 to win. This shouldn’t come as a lot of a shock contemplating his Golden State Warriors are tied for one of the best file within the NBA on the time of writing and he’s averaging 26.8 factors, 6.1 assists and 5.2 rebounds.
His numbers have slipped not too long ago, although. In his previous two video games towards the Miami Warmth and Dallas Mavericks, Curry has shot a mixed 8-of-41 from the sphere and 2-of-19 from behind the arc.
You may additionally argue that that is additionally a down 12 months for Curry who’s taking pictures simply 42% from the sphere and 38.8% from 3-point vary, which might be wonderful for many however feels underwhelming for Curry. These numbers are lowest of his profession outdoors of his 2019-20 marketing campaign the place he performed simply 5 video games. So long as the Warriors proceed to win, Curry will doubtless stay the favourite, but when this droop carries on, it might go away the door ajar for an additional candidate to steal the award.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
As I mentioned earlier than, Antetokounmpo was one in every of my picks to win MVP at +850 earlier than the season began, and my colleague Brandon Anderson did a stable job at highlighting all of the the reason why he checked all the boxes.
Though the Bucks had a sluggish begin to the season with accidents to Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Vacation, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis amongst others, this group is lastly beginning to get wholesome. Whereas Antetokounmpo missed their final recreation towards the Toronto Raptors, the Bucks are beginning to make a push, profitable six of their final eight video games.
With Antetokounmpo placing up his ordinary MVP caliber stat line of 27.9 factors, 11.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists he has definitely put himself within the combine for an additional MVP Award. Antetokounmpo can be on the prime of almost each superior metric, rating 2nd in PER (31.3), Win Shares (5.8), BPM (10.2), and VORP (3.1).
My linear regression and logistic regression fashions differ in terms of Antetokounmpo’s probabilities largely because of the Bucks sitting third within the Jap Convention. I can’t suggest a wager at this level, however he’s definitely a reputation to observe going ahead.
Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant is on tempo for his fifth scoring title, main the league in scoring at 30.0 factors per recreation whereas taking pictures 51.8% from the sphere. On the time of writing, he’s second in minutes per recreation (37) and has shouldered an enormous load for a lot of the season.
Issues ought to get simpler for Brooklyn going ahead as Irving has returned to the lineup for street video games and Harden has seemingly returned to kind. Over the previous six video games, Harden is averaging 29.8 factors whereas averaging 12.2 free throw makes an attempt per recreation.
Though that is good for the Nets, it doubtless hurts Durant’s MVP probabilities going ahead whilst he comes off a recreation through which he scored 39 factors and shot 62.5% from the sphere together with eight rebounds and 7 assists. With two different All-NBA caliber gamers subsequent to him it’s robust to think about Durant getting MVP consideration even with stellar numbers.
The largest factor hurting him in my mannequin is the Nets dropping to second within the Jap Convention behind the Chicago Bulls with a 24-12 file. Earlier than Wednesday’s win over the Indiana Pacers, the Nets misplaced three straight video games, together with an upset loss to the Clippers with out Paul George and Marcus Morris.
It’s clear the Nets received’t be going all out within the common season and at the side of having two different star gamers on this group, it’s robust to advise including any positions on Durant to win MVP at this level except one thing adjustments.
Since each of my fashions closely weigh factors per recreation and seeding, Durant together with Harden are each seen as having an honest probability of profitable, primarily as a result of the Nets are are presently among the many prime two within the Jap Convention.
DeMar DeRozan
The Bulls presently have one of the best file within the Jap Convention with a 25-10 file. The largest purpose why is DeRozan who’s averaging 26.9 factors on 50% taking pictures whereas grabbing 5 rebounds and dishing 4.5 assists. Much more spectacular is how Derozan has carried out within the clutch this season. He’s second in fourth quarter factors per recreation this season behind Giannis Antetokounmpo with (8.0) in keeping with NBA Advanced Stats.
Since coming back from the well being and security protocols, Derozan has been on a tear, averaging 28.5 factors per recreation on 48.2% taking pictures. Throughout this eight recreation stretch he’s hit recreation winners towards the Lakers, Pacers and Wizards, which has catapulted him into the MVP dialogue amongst each hardcore and informal followers. His MVP odds have since dropped from +6600 on Dec. 22 to +4000 as of right now.
Nonetheless, his superior metrics are missing in comparison with his friends. For Derozan to have a reputable shot at profitable MVP, the Bulls would wish to complete because the No. 1 seed and he’d have to beat the affect of his teammate Zach LaVine who can be having a stellar season, averaging 26.3 factors per recreation together with 4.2 assists and 5.1 rebounds.
Much like Durant and Harden, LaVine can be given an honest probability of profitable the Award primarily based on the Bulls having the highest seed within the Jap Convention.
Nikola Jokic
Jokic continues to current his case for being each one of the best participant and a participant who’s most beneficial for his group given the accidents his group is coping with. Jokic is averaging 25.7 factors on 56.4% taking pictures whereas additionally grabbing 14.2 rebounds and doling out seven assists.
He’s on the prime of nearly each single superior metric. He’s first in PER (32.2), he’s first in field plus minus (13.4), offensive (8.7) and defensive field plus minus (4.7) and worth over substitute (3.9). Whereas he was first in Win Shares again on December twenty second, he has since dropped to 3rd (5.7).
Sadly for the Jokic, whereas he’s placing up one other MVP caliber season the Nuggets aren’t profitable sufficient for him to be thought-about. They’re simply 18-18 on the season after going 5-5 of their final 10 video games. With Jamal Murray nonetheless recovering from his torn ACL and accidents to Michael Porter Jr and PJ Dozier, the Nuggets simply don’t have sufficient on a nightly foundation regardless of how dominant Jokic has been.
Chris Paul
Paul has really seen his MVP odds go up from +6600 to +7000 this season. Not a lot has modified for him since we printed our tracker in December. Chris Paul is averaging simply 14.1 factors per recreation together with 10.1 assists whereas main the Suns to a 29-8 file, tied for one of the best within the league together with the Warriors.
As was the case with Steve Nash in our outliers part, level guards who aren’t enormous scoring threats won’t ever be pretty priced by my MVP mannequin, which locations an enormous emphasis on factors. Nonetheless, Paul is without doubt one of the highest affect gamers within the league.
The Suns are scoring 116.3 factors per 100 possessions with Paul on the ground and 107.4 with him off it (+8.9). Whereas the affect is there, his lack of explosive scoring outburst together with enjoying with Devin Booker doubtless has him drawing lifeless for this award.
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