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With a 14-2 common season, the Kansas City Chiefs have set themselves as much as fulfill their year-long mission: successful a second-consecutive Super Bowl title. They possess the AFC’s lone bye — and whether or not it’s within the divisional spherical or the convention championship, they may face any of the six AFC groups that may play on this weekend’s Wild Card spherical.
When the Chiefs play at their finest, it’s practically unattainable to beat them. Even after they’re not, they’re laborious to beat — however no NFL group is actually unbeatable. So whereas final season’s title run was actually magical, there’s no assure it’ll occur once more.
Each AFC playoff group is 11-5 or higher. The postseason bracket is as loaded because it has been in current reminiscence. I examined every potential opponent, on the lookout for one aspect of the matchup that would result in an upset loss for the Chiefs.
7. Indianapolis Colts
After they might play: Divisional spherical
In opposition to the run and the cross, the Colts’ protection is without doubt one of the NFL’s elite. They’re prime 10 in each factors allowed and yards given up, whereas forcing turnovers on the third-highest price within the NFL. It begins with their defensive position trio: DeForest Buckner, Justin Houston and Denico Autry have mixed for 25 sacks.
Buckner’s freakish size and explosiveness is just like Chiefs defensive deal with Chris Jones — which is dangerous information for Kansas Metropolis’s weak inside offensive line. If he has an affect just like Grady Jarrett’s within the Week 16 recreation in opposition to the Atlanta Falcons, the Colts’ more-effective zone cross protection will probably be much more of an issue for Patrick Mahomes.
But when the Chiefs pay an excessive amount of consideration to Buckner, Houston and Autry are completely able to collapsing the pocket from the sides — even with out assist from blitzes.
6. Cleveland Browns
After they might play: Divisional spherical or AFC Championship
The Browns have one of many NFL’s highest-volume dashing assaults — but additionally one of the environment friendly. Operating backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have averaged 4.9 yards per rush try, which helped the Cleveland offense have the NFL’s third-longest drives by time of possession.
Their success isn’t depending on Chubb and Hunt. At full well being, the Browns’ offensive line is dominant. Led by their proper guard Wyatt Teller — by PFF’s reckoning, the league’s highest-graded run-blocking offensive lineman — they open up working lanes as usually as any line within the NFL.
With the Chiefs’ linebackers at lower than full well being, the Browns might make brief runs flip into enormous performs on any snap. The Browns might attempt to dominate time of possession, maintain the ball out of Mahomes’ palms and use their underrated receiving group out of play-action to make fast strikes.
5. Baltimore Ravens
After they might play: Divisional spherical or AFC Championship
The Ravens simply don’t match up properly with the Chiefs. Their blitz-heavy scheme feeds proper into Mahomes’ palms — and so they don’t have the offensive explosiveness to maintain up with Kansas Metropolis’s scoring.
Their solely probability is to return out with an ideal first 15 performs to attain early touchdowns — after which play conservatively on protection. The Chiefs understand how necessary it is going to be to get out to a lead; the Ravens might want to alter their model, taking away huge performs with deeper protection and fewer blitzing. They’ll need to lull the Kansas Metropolis offense to sleep — after which soar on any alternative the place Mahomes tries to power one thing.
They’ve the expertise within the secondary to capitalize on any errors Mahomes may make — and if they’ll get out to a lead, the Ravens’ offense will have the ability to take their time, enjoying the model by which they’re most comfy.
4. Tennessee Titans
After they might play: Divisional spherical or AFC Championship
As working again Derrick Henry rushed for two,027 yards this season, quarterback Ryan Tannehill took benefit of heavy containers and led one of many NFL’s most effective passing offenses. They rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ whole DVOA and passing DVOA — and out of play-action, Tannehill had the NFL’s highest passer score.
Kansas Metropolis’s safeties and linebackers could have their consciousness and vary put to the check. Linebackers can’t be manipulated an excessive amount of by the play motion. In any other case, they’ll depart gaps within the intermediate areas for straightforward completions and large beneficial properties. If the safeties creep up an excessive amount of, receivers A.J. Brown and Corey Davis can get behind the deep protection defenders, making catches over any defender.
It is a recurring theme for the Chiefs. If the linebacker unit is lacking key gamers — or can’t play successfully — the Titans will probably be ready maximize the strengths of their offense.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
After they might play: AFC Championship
This one is easy: if their cross rush can dominate to its full potential, the Steelers can beat the Chiefs.
Edge rusher T.J. Watt is a prime candidate for defensive participant of the 12 months His 15 sacks lead the league — and at his place, he has the second-most pressures. Per PFF, he additionally leads the league in quarterback hits. Subsequent to him is defensive deal with Stephon Tuitt, who has 11 sacks and the NFL’s fourth-most pressures.
If these two play on the peak of their powers, they may wreak havoc on the Chiefs’ passing recreation — and assist a Pittsburgh secondary able to reap the benefits of errors.
2. Buffalo Bills
After they might play: AFC Championship
That is the sport everybody desires to see — exactly for the best way the Payments can beat the Chiefs: by outscoring them in a shootout.
Quarterback Josh Allen is absolutely good. He ended the season with the league’s fourth-best completion share and passer score, whereas rating fifth in passing yards, passing touchdowns and yards per try. He additionally had the second-most passes for greater than 20 yards downfield.
But it surely’s not simply Allen. Huge receiver Stefon Diggs is among the many NFL’s elite extensive receivers, proving it by main the league in each receptions and receiving yards. Slot receiver Cole Beasley would probably be considered one of Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed’s hardest matchups but.
With Allen’s mobility out and in of the pocket, he might carve up the Kansas Metropolis protection, permitting him to maintain tempo with Mahomes — and doubtlessly outlast him.
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