7 Final Thoughts From Tokyo: Analyzing Team USA’s Performance, Who Benefited Most from the COVID Delay, & More

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By Jonathan Gault
August 12, 2021

TOKYO — The 2020 Olympics are over. And whereas the monitor season is way from completed — we’ve nonetheless acquired some nice meets on the calendar, together with the Prefontaine Basic and the brand new mega Diamond League last in Zurich — there may be lastly slightly time to catch one’s breath, as Pre continues to be 9 days away.

As I write this, I’m caught in Haneda Aiport, since my flight dwelling has been delayed (replace: after a 22-hour delay in Tokyo and a six-hour delay in Chicago, I made it dwelling at 3:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday). And I’m not alone in that plight. Mike Tirico, NBC’s face of the Video games, was alleged to be on my flight (no phrase on whether or not he was on the delayed flight, however I can verify he had significantly extra baggage than me).

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With a while to kill, I figured I’ll as properly empty my pocket book and attempt to make sense of the ten days of Olympic monitor & discipline we simply devoured. Some last observations from Tokyo, on and off the monitor:

1) This was not an important Olympics for the US — significantly on the boys’s aspect — however that doesn’t imply it’s time to panic

After I wrote a version of this column 5 years in the past after Rio, I led by praising Staff USA for his or her greatest Olympic efficiency for the reason that Soviet-less 1984 Video games on dwelling soil in Los Angeles. This yr, the Individuals weren’t almost nearly as good, profitable 26 medals in comparison with 32 in Rio and barely half as many golds (seven versus 13). Right here is how Staff USA’s medal rely stacks up in opposition to previous Olympics and the 2019 World Championships:

Yr	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Complete medals	Factors
2021	7	12	7	26	52
2019	14	11	4	29	68
2016	13	10	9	32	68
2012	9	12	7	28	58
2008	7	9	7	23	46
2004	9	11	5	25	54
2000	7	4	5	16	34
1996	13	5	5	23	54
1992	12	8	10	30	62
1988	13	7	6	26	59
1984	16	15	9	40	87
Common	10.9	9.5	6.7	27.1	58.4

*Factors = (gold x3) + (silver x2) + bronze

There are undeniably some areas wherein Staff USA underperformed. Getting into the Olympics, it was possible for the US to win all seven males’s sprinting occasions (100, 200, 400, 110 hurdles, 400 hurdles, 4×100, 4×400). To come back away with only one gold in these occasions — within the 4×400, an occasion the US ought to by no means lose — is a serious disappointment.

However let’s put this efficiency in context. The US nonetheless completely dominated the medal desk in Tokyo, profitable 26 (Kenya was subsequent, with 10). The truth is, the US not solely received extra golds than every other nation (seven versus Italy’s 5), however extra silvers (12 versus Kenya’s 4) and bronzes (seven versus Jamaica’s 4) as properly. Wanting on the desk above, this was the USA’s worst Olympic efficiency since 2008…but it surely wasn’t far off the US’s common medal or factors haul. It simply wasn’t nearly as good because the unbelievable performances on the 2016 Olympics or 2019 Worlds.

Since 1984, Staff USA on common wins 27.1 medals with 10.9 of these being gold, 9.5 silver and 6.7 bronze. In Tokyo, the US received 26 medals — so only one fewer medal than regular (okay, two when you take into account the combined gender 4×400 was solely added in 2019). The one motive this story getting a variety of consideration is there have been 4 fewer golds than regular.

Sure, America has a inhabitants benefit over lots of its rivals, however monitor & discipline is without doubt one of the hardest sports activities to dominate as it’s actually a bunch of various sports activities thrown collectively and the barrier to entry is low. Forty-three totally different international locations received a monitor & discipline medal in Tokyo, and 23 totally different international locations received gold (for swimming these numbers are simply 21 and 12). Other than soccer, there isn’t a extra world sport than monitor & discipline. The US isn’t aggressive in each occasion, however it’s aggressive in most of them, profitable a number of medals in every of the foremost occasion teams — sprints, distance, jumps, and throws (every thing however the race stroll).

2) Taking a more in-depth have a look at the American males’s lack of gold medals on the monitor

One of many greatest tales of the 2020 Olympics was the failure of the American males to win a single gold medal in a person operating occasion — one thing that had by no means occurred within the 126-year historical past of the Olympics (outdoors of the 1980 Video games in Moscow, which the US boycotted). This was considered as a failure by Staff USA, however “Staff USA” is an phantasm. Trayvon Bromell and Grant Holloway don’t practice collectively. One’s success or failure has nothing to do with the opposite’s. They’re solely “teammates” at one in all these main championships, when USATF slaps a purple, white, and blue Nike uniform on their chests.

I don’t fault my fellow journalists for looking for an overarching development that explains the dearth of gold medals — that’s our first intuition as journalists, to hunt for traits and explanations. However one of the best ways to clarify the outcomes is to have a look at every occasion individually, as a result of monitor & discipline is a person sport.

Males’s 100

The US was closely favored to win this occasion. The truth is, a 1-2-3 end wasn’t out of the query as Individuals Trayvon Bromell, Ronnie Baker, and Fred Kerley entered Tokyo with the #1, #3, and #4 instances on the planet this yr. So to return away with solely a silver, collectively, is a disappointment. Bromell was one of many greatest underperformers of the Video games — he simply didn’t look proper in his prelim or his semi and shockingly didn’t even make the ultimate after a dominant common season. Baker is a little bit of a combined bag. He ran a pb of 9.83 within the semis, however contemplating he assumed the favourite standing after Bromell did not qualify, a fifth-place end within the last is a disappointment. Kerley, in the meantime, will get an A. He was simply third on the US trials and no higher than fifth in his two post-Trials European meets. To run 9.84 and take silver within the Olympic last is a large outcome.

Males’s 200

There’s nothing to criticize about Kenny Bednarek, who ran a 19.68 pb to take silver, or Erriyon Knighton, who completed 4th within the last as a 17-year-old. It will get tough with Noah Lyles. Based mostly on Lyles’ earlier physique of labor, bronze is a disappointment. It is a man who has dominated the 200 since 2017, the fourth-fastest man in historical past and reigning world champion who ran world leaders in 2017, 2018, and 2019 and had misplaced only one out of doors 200 as a professional coming into Tokyo.

However Lyles has additionally spoken candidly about how the pandemic took a critical toll on his psychological well being and the way the antidepressant remedy he prescribed, whereas bettering his temper, would sap his power. He handled all this whereas coaching for the 100/200 double at a serious championship for the primary time — a double that might not materialize in Tokyo after he completed seventh on the US Olympic Trials and did not make the 100 staff. If we grade him solely on 2021 Noah Lyles requirements, then a bronze in 19.74 — tying his season’s greatest — is a advantageous outcome.

Males’s 400

This occasion typified the US males’s struggles on the monitor. Michael Cherry ran the race of his life, a 44.21 private greatest, within the Olympic last to complete fourth, simply .02 off a medal. That could be a super outcome. In the meantime Michael Norman, the largest American expertise on this occasion since Michael Johnson, was simply fifth in 44.31, nearly a full second off his private greatest.

Norman’s struggles — and it does really feel slightly unusual to make use of the phrase “battle” for a man who received the US Olympic Trials this yr — are exhausting to grasp. In 2019, when he ran 43.45 in April however did not make the World Championship last, it was clear he was not at 100% attributable to a hamstring damage. However what’s the clarification this yr? At 23, Norman must be in his prime. Norman ran a ridiculous 9.86 within the 100 final yr and his coaching associate Rai Benjamin is within the type of his life. Is it nonetheless his hamstring? Or one thing else? Nothing about this is sensible.

Males’s 110 hurdles

As my colleague Robert Johnson pointed out, it could have taken a giant efficiency from Grant Holloway to win the Olympic last as Jamaica’s Hansle Parchment summoned a 13.04 — a time he hadn’t touched in six years — to win the gold. Holloway has truly solely run 13.03 or quicker 4 instances in his life and simply 10.3% of time in his final 39 races courting to the beginning of 2019.

However Holloway has specialised in large performances this yr. He hadn’t misplaced a race in 2021 earlier than the ultimate and three of the 4 quickest races of his profession got here in his final 5 races earlier than the ultimate in Tokyo: 12.81 and 12.96 on the Olympic Trials and 13.02 within the first spherical in Tokyo. Within the last, Holloway fell aside over the ultimate three hurdles and whereas his 13.09 was nonetheless adequate for silver, it was removed from his greatest. That being mentioned, 13.09 continues to be quicker than the time he ran in 2019 to win Worlds (13.10). Fourth in 13.14 is about proper for Devon Allen. Had he run his season’s greatest (13.10), he would have tied with Ronald Levy for the bronze.

Males’s 400 hurdles

Rai Benjamin was the US’s solely medal risk on this race and ran the race of his life, 46.17, for second behind Karsten Warholm. By no means, form or kind can that outcome — over half a second beneath the prevailing world file — be thought-about an underperformance. Benjamin simply had the misfortune to get crushed by one of the greatest performances in the history of the sport.

Males’s 800

The 800 was all the time going to be a tough occasion to win on the Olympics, however Clayton Murphy‘s 1:43.17 win on the Olympic Trials — a world chief on the time — stamped him as a gold-medal contender. There was no disgrace in Murphy ending off the rostrum, however for him to complete final within the last was a disappointment. The opposite Individuals, Bryce Hoppel and Isaiah Jewett, weren’t thought-about medal contenders and didn’t even make the ultimate, although Jewett acquired a little bit of a uncooked deal after falling in his semi following contact with Nijel Amos (I nonetheless haven’t heard a great clarification for why Amos was superior as a substitute of Jewett.).

Males’s 1500

Contemplating it took 3:29.05 to medal in Tokyo, there was no motive to count on a US medal in that form of race. Just one American — Bernard Lagat — has ever run that quick, and he was representing Kenya on the time. Cole Hocker ran magnificently to complete sixth in 3:31.40 as a 20-year-old, and whereas it was a disappointment for Matthew Centrowitz to not make the ultimate, he was not going to medal in a 3:29 race.

Males’s steeplechase

The remainder of the world raised its recreation on this occasion on the Olympics. Benard Keter responded splendidly, with a private greatest within the prelims and an Eleventh-place end within the last. Mason Ferlic missed the ultimate however was solely two seconds off his pb within the prelims. Hillary Bor, who was a fringe medal contender after profitable a Diamond League earlier this yr, positively underperformed by failing to make the ultimate.

Males’s 5,000

A bronze medal from Paul Chelimo is an effective consequence. Grant Fisher (ninth) and Woody Kincaid (14th) weren’t anticipated to medal and each appeared beaten-up from the 10k.

Males’s 10,000

Grant Fisher is the one American not named Rupp or Shorter to complete within the prime 5 on the Olympics on this occasion within the final 50 years. He wasn’t thought-about a medal risk however got here nearer than most anticipated (including his own father). fifteenth and sixteenth for Woody Kincaid and Joe Klecker is perhaps barely decrease than expectations, however not by a lot.

Males’s marathon

Earlier than the race, Galen Rupp‘s coach Mike Smith instructed me that Rupp had a “very contained” vary of outcomes. In different phrases, he knew Rupp would run a great race, however had no concept whether or not that race could be adequate to medal. Rupp did certainly run a great race, however not the nice race he wanted to medal and took eighth. The opposite Individuals, Jake Riley (twenty ninth) and Abdi Abdirahman (forty first) weren’t medal contenders and did properly simply to make the US staff.

***

In spite of everything of that, it appears clear: the US’s greatest stars didn’t ship on the largest stage. (I instructed you I’m educated to search for traits). Bromell, Norman, Holloway, and Lyles have all produced performances lately that might have received them the gold medal in Tokyo. They might not summon that efficiency in crucial race. Is {that a} failure? From a binary perspective, sure. Nevertheless it additionally tells you simply how exhausting it’s to win an Olympic title and may make us recognize the athletes who did ship as favorites — Athing Mu, Sydney McLaughlin, Ryan Crouser — all of the extra.

Shifting forward to a house World Championships in 2022, the US is in a great place. Bromell, Norman, Holloway, and Lyles are all of their primes (Bromell, who turned 26 final month, is the oldest). And the US will get again two reigning world champions who missed Tokyo in Christian Coleman and Donavan Brazier. Search for monitor golds — a number of — by the US males in Eugene.

3) Youth motion?

Watching 19-year-old Athing Mu win the 800, 20-year-old Jakob Ingebrigtsen win the 1500, and 21-year-old Sydney McLaughlin win the 400 hurdles, it definitely felt as if there was a youth motion afoot on the monitor. However was there? It will depend on the way you have a look at it.

The typical age of males’s gold medalists in operating occasions this yr was 25.9, which was pretty typical (the quantity was 27.7 in 2016, 26.2 in 2012, and 23.1 in 2008). A part of the drop from 2016 was attributable to new blood reminiscent of Ingebrigtsen and 21-year-old Selemon Barega. However one other issue was the dearth of repeat champions. In 2021, just one male runner repeated as Olympic champion: 36-year-old Eliud Kipchoge within the marathon. In 2016, it occurred 5 instances: 27-year-old David Rudisha received the 800, 29-year-old Usain Bolt received the 100/200, and 33-year-old Mo Farah received the 5k/10k.

On the ladies’s aspect, the typical age of gold medalists in operating occasions was 25.5 in 2021, once more a reasonably typical quantity (it was 24.9 in 2016, 26.3 in 2012, and 25.4 in 2008). This yr noticed 4 repeat champions in Elaine Thompson-Herah (100/200), Shaunae Miller-Uibo (400), and Religion Kipyegon (1500).

2021 did stand out in that, throughout each genders, there have been as many monitor gold medalists age 21 or youthful (4) as in 2012 (two) and 2016 (two) mixed. However 2008 (seven) nearly had as many as all three of these Olympics mixed. Reality is, there may be all the time churn in gold medalists within the Olympics as new stars are born and others fade. In Mu, Ingebrigtsen, and McLaughlin, the game appears to have three new superstars to hold it via the 2020s.

4) Which occasions have been affected most by the COVID postponement?

After the Tokyo Olympics have been pushed again a yr, everybody agreed the podiums would look totally different. With the advantage of hindsight, listed here are the occasions that have been most shaken up by the COVID-enforced postponement.

Males’s 100

A yr in the past, Marcell Jacobs was an unknown 10.03 man and Fred Kerley was a 400 runner. They wound up going 1-2 within the Olympics. After all, Jacobs was nonetheless an unknown 10.03 man this yr as properly till two weeks in the past.

Girls’s 200

Elaine Thompson-Herah was superb in 2020 (she received 9 of her 10 races) however hadn’t confirmed something suggesting her 2021 kind. However the greatest adjustments come within the silver and bronze positions. Final yr, Christine Mboma was 17 years previous and had but to emerge and Gabby Thomas had but to make the breakthrough we noticed this summer season.

Males’s 1500

Jakob Ingebrigtsen and his father/coach, Gjert

After I requested Jakob Ingebrigtsenwhy he was capable of beat Timothy Cheruiyot for the primary time in Tokyo after 12 consecutive defeats, he answered politely and rationally.

“I imply, I consider my first try, I used to be in all probability 15,” Ingebrigtsen mentioned. “After all he’s been one of many world’s greatest runners for a few years already. I’ve slowly been bettering, all the way in which up up to now.”

Ingebrigtsen was truly 16 when he ran 3:39.92 to complete tenth on the BAUHAUS-galan in Stockholm on June 18, 2017, over 9 seconds behind Cheruiyot, who received the race in 3:30.77. By his subsequent matchup on the Prefontaine Basic a yr later, Ingebrigtsen had chopped that hole to lower than three seconds. However by 2020, Ingebrigtsen had not fairly crushed Cheruiyot but, however he was nearer nonetheless, ending second behind him in Monaco and Stockholm. One additional yr could have been simply what Ingebrigtsen, 20, wanted to topple his rival in Tokyo.

Girls’s 800

Athing Mu and Keely Hodgkinson went from 2:01 private bests as 18-year-olds to 1:55 and a 1-2 end within the Olympic last as 19-year-olds. Fairly important jumps.

5) The lads’s 400 hurdles was one of the best occasion — in any sport — in Tokyo

It appeared unattainable for the boys’s 400 hurdles to exceed the pre-event hype generated by the performances of Karsten Warholm and Rai Benjamin this season. Even when each males ran underneath the prevailing world file, 46.70 by Warholm, not many monitor nuts would have been shocked.

However no quantity of hype may have ready us for the mayhem that unfolded on the Olympic Stadium monitor on the morning of August 3. Watching Warholm and Benjamin duel down the house straight was unbelievable, and once I noticed the clock cease at 45.94, I couldn’t assist however scream. I simply saved repeating the identical two digits.

45! 45! He ran 45!

Downstairs within the combined zone, the response was in contrast to something I had ever seen. I’ve coated three World Championships and two Olympics and have seen my share of world information. Nothing in comparison with this. Nobody knew what to say. Was it the spikes? Was it the monitor? Was the clock damaged? How the hell do you are taking .76 of a second off a dash file within the yr 2021?

Please don’t suppose that each one we needed to do within the combined zone was to cheapen Warholm’s efficiency and the unbelievable instances that adopted him. Everybody was in awe of what we — we fortunate few allowed contained in the stadium that day — had simply witnessed. I requested a number of journalists whether or not it was the best race that they had ever seen in particular person. A unanimous sure. The one query was whether or not it was the best race ever. That’s unattainable to reply, however the truth that it was even within the dialog was proof of simply how particular that last was.

6) From contained in the Olympic bubble, you couldn’t inform anybody in Japan was against internet hosting the Olympics

Followers throughout the road from the Olympic Stadium welcomed guests to Tokyo

Within the leadup to the Video games, you in all probability noticed a variety of widely-publicized polls concerning the Japanese public’s help (or lack thereof) for internet hosting the Olympics. One survey performed by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper in Might discovered 43% of respondents wanting the Video games to be cancelled and simply 14% for them to go forward (40% needed them postponed once more, which was by no means an choice). An online petition titled “Cancel the Tokyo Olympics to guard our lives” garnered over 450,000 signatures. Loads of Japanese residents didn’t need these Olympics to occur.

I didn’t see any of them, although. Clearly that’s self-selecting. After all the volunteers and employees who selected to work the Video games needed them to occur. And after all the followers I noticed outdoors the Olympic Stadium each day, lining up simply to get an image of it via the 10-foot steel fence, have been blissful the Video games have been on. However the Olympic Stadium would even have been the proper place to protest the Olympics, and I didn’t see any demonstrations (that’s not to say they didn’t exist).

One second that stood out: as I walked to my seat for the Closing Ceremony on Sunday evening, I regarded out of the stadium to an house constructing throughout the road. Inside, individuals had embellished their home windows with flags or the phrases TOKYO 2020 and have been waving their telephones backwards and forwards, saying good day to everybody as we headed inside to benefit from the spectacle they have been solely allowed to look at on tv. I waved again — everybody round me did. And once we exited the stadium two hours later, those self same individuals have been nonetheless waving to us.

And about these volunteers and staffers: rock stars, all of them. Everybody radiated power and positivity, regardless of how small or repetitive the duty. After I forgot to fill out a kind or walked someplace I wasn’t alleged to go, there was no anger, solely a serving to hand. If I had an issue, somebody was on a radio instantly to get it fastened. I can’t reward them sufficient.

Oh, and in case you have been , of the 676,789 COVID screening assessments performed on Olympic contributors between July 1 and August 8, simply 163 (0.02%) have been optimistic. All of the restrictions appeared to work — even when a few of them appeared extra performative than preventive.

7) Just a few last last ideas

On the Closing Ceremony

No nation is extra obsessive about one runner than Norway with Jakob Ingebrigtsen. I’ve been interviewed by a number of Norwegian journalists for my ideas on Jakob this summer season and most of the mixed-zone classes with different 1500 runners featured Norwegians asking for his or her opinions on Jakob. It form of is sensible. Take into consideration the hype surrounding Cole Hocker within the operating group within the US. Then transport him to a rustic not recognized for producing sports activities stars and provides his household their very own actuality present…On condition that we have been prevented from consuming in eating places, the vast majority of my weight-reduction plan in Japan consisted of comfort retailer meals — which isn’t as dangerous because it sounds. Japanese comfort shops, generally known as conbini, are in all places, they usually supply extra plentiful (and extra tasty) choices than their American counterparts. This New York Times article does an important job of explaining the attraction. I can verify that the Household Mart fried rooster is juicy and scrumptious, the 7-Eleven corn canine is high quality, and each single sandwich is served with out crust (which triggered some critical childhood nostalgia)…Japanese beer observations: Sapporo was good, Asahi not a lot, and 7-Eleven’s house lager was surprisingly drinkable…The robot revolution could also be coming earlier than you suppose. Be careful, Steph Curry…Tokyo has the cleanest streets of any main metropolis I’ve visited. It additionally has the fewest trash cans of any main metropolis I’ve visited. Can somebody clarify this to me?…Tokyo was extremely sizzling and humid. Like, legitimately depressing to be outdoors throughout daytime hours. 90 levels, 80% humidity each day. Even as soon as the solar set, it was sticky. I sweat myself silly within the combined zone, so I can solely think about how the athletes felt…I attended the Closing Ceremony on Sunday evening and after seeing the hype video, Paris 2024 can’t come quickly sufficient…

Tokyo photograph dump