Our Best Bets for Team Point Totals (August 6)

The 2021-22 Premier League kicks off its extremely anticipated season August 13, with Arsenal visiting Brentford within the opener match.

Whereas the switch window remains to be open and a few participant motion is to be anticipated, PointsBet launched its over/underneath level totals for 19 of 20 groups within the English prime flight. The one lacking group is Tottenham Hotspur, because of the unsure way forward for star striker Harry Kane with the north London membership.

Manchester Metropolis is the highest projected group at 86.5 factors, with Liverpool and Chelsea behind the defending league champion at 76.5 factors. That triumph is adopted by Manchester United (73.5), Arsenal (61.5) and Leicester Metropolis (58.5) to spherical out the top-six picks.

On the backside of the desk, Burnley, Newcastle, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Norwich Metropolis and Watford make up the final six and have projected at level totals of 38.5 or decrease.

Soccer writers Anthony Dabbundo and BJ Cunningham unveil their favourite win complete (over/underneath) picks previous to the opener between the Bees and Gunners. Let’s have a look what they assume is perhaps in retailer.

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Anthony Dabbundo

Liverpool — Beneath 76.5 Factors (-110)

Final season, the Reds had a horrible run of ending loads of unhealthy luck on the harm entrance, but they nonetheless managed to complete sturdy in third place to safe a Champions League berth.

Usually, I’d look to play on these groups to bounce again and enhance the next season as a result of ending and accidents are usually noisy within the brief time period and stability out in the long run.

Nonetheless, that’s not the case for Liverpool, which hasn’t executed a lot to bolster its ageing squad as the beginning of the season nears. Its entrance three of Sadio Mané, Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino are all 29 years previous and on the age the place declines in manufacturing turns into frequent for attackers. The one dependable backup is Diogo Jota.

Liverpool wasn’t in a position to get youthful in assault or the midfield both. Dropping Georginio Wijnaldum may damage within the brief time period, and Jordan Henderson is on the unsuitable aspect of 30 within the midfield as nicely.

Defensively, the Reds ought to enhance with the return of Virgil Van Dijk, however he’s additionally off a serious knee harm at 30 years previous. Liverpool did a wonderful job of signing gamers to maximise its squad’s peak health and age curves from 2018-2020. That window is closing, although, and the Reds haven’t spent sufficient to replenish the youthful finish of the age curve.

Liverpool solely had 68.6 anticipated factors final season, so even a return to regular ending received’t be sufficient. The Reds’ urgent wasn’t nearly as good with ageing gamers in COVID-19 protocol final season, and it received’t be as efficient this yr as nicely. That 76.5 complete is simply too excessive with Manchester United and Chelsea improved, so Liverpool ought to be across the low 70s at greatest.

Leeds United — Beneath 53.5 factors (-115)

The Peacocks surpassed even essentially the most bullish of expectations throughout its 2020-21 marketing campaign with a stable efficiency in a return to the Premier League. And there was nothing flukey about it. Leeds’ superior health, glorious attacking play and likelihood creation vaulted it to ninth place within the desk, in addition to eleventh within the xP desk.

Virtually all the things went proper for the Peacocks to complete as excessive as they did, although. The vast majority of the gamers remained wholesome virtually all yr. They ran actually sizzling defensively, permitting simply 54 targets from 62.9 anticipated targets in opposition to.

Leeds isn’t the primary group to over-perform in an EPL return, with Wolves and Sheffield United being latest examples of that precise scenario. Wolves repeated their success for another yr, whereas the underside fell out for Sheffield United in relegation final season. Leeds is prone to fall in between these outcomes.

Groups will alter to their urgent within the second yr when dealing with them and power the Peacocks to be extra pragmatic. There are nonetheless critical defensive considerations with supervisor Marcelo Bielsa’s aspect, which allowed the second-most xG within the league.

Leeds is unlikely to be in any relegation hazard, however 53.5 factors is simply too excessive for the membership coming into this season.

Southampton — Beneath 43.5 Factors (-120)

The Saints had a sizzling begin final season with 23 factors in its first 12 matches. They had been sitting in fourth place on December 14, showing to be adapting nicely to the COVID-19 period of soccer.

Nonetheless, issues unraveled for the Saints. Accidents, an absence of squad depth and regression got here arduous for supervisor Ralph Hassenhuttl’s aspect. They managed simply 20 factors of their ultimate 26 matches with 5 wins, 5 attracts and 16 defeats. No group had fewer factors in that point interval.

Southampton’s xG numbers and factors additionally tanked (seventeenth greatest since Dec. 14), because it was unable to proceed urgent with the identical success and depth as gamers wore down from the condensed schedule. No group was extra negatively impacted by the shortcoming to implement a ferocious defensive press than this membership.

Now, the Saints have misplaced striker and main scorer Danny Ings to Aston Villa. They had been within the backside 5 in passes allowed in their very own penalty space, extraordinary for previous urgent groups underneath Hassenhuttl. James Ward-Prowse is about to overlook the beginning of the yr, there are query marks at goalkeeper and Southampton is one chilly spell from being within the relegation battle.

I took Southampton to be relegated at +550 odds and love its underneath 43.5 factors. For a group that solely managed 43 factors final yr and is worse on paper with out Ings’ 10-plus targets per season, it’s my favourite complete throughout Europe.

BJ Cunningham

Brighton & Hove Albion — Over 46.5 Factors (-125)

This can be a laguable quantity and ought to be nicely above 50 factors. The Seagulls’ had a +13.91 xGDiff, which was good for fifth greatest within the Premier League, however their precise purpose differential was -6 on the season.

So, primarily based on xP of which they amassed 61.41 final season, they need to have completed 11 spots larger within the England’s prime flight. Brighton ought to have been battling for a Europa League spot, however as an alternative it was preventing relegation.

What’s much more merciless about Brighton’s outcomes is simply how good it was at residence, however had only a few factors to point out for it. Of their 19 residence matches, the Seagulls had a +18.13 xGDiff and conceded simply 0.81 xG per match.

Solely Manchester Metropolis and Chelsea —  the Champions League finalists — had a greater xGDiff than Brighton. So, Brighton’s luck has to show round coming into this season.

Brighton did promote its greatest defender in Ben White to Arsenal for $64.35 million, however the membership is bringing in a implausible, very versatile midfielder to play alongside Yves Bissouma in Enock Mwepu from Austrian outfit Salzburg. These two within the midfield will likely be an extremely dynamic duo, as they’re two of the most effective urgent midfielders in England’s prime flight. In actual fact, Brighton had the fourth-best stress success charge within the Premier League final season.

Brighton was essentially the most unfortunate group in league historical past final season, so if it will possibly proceed to play with that a lot high quality, water will discover its degree and the membership goes to fly previous 46 factors.

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Crystal Palace — Over 36.5 Factors (-140)

Now, earlier than I get into Crystal Palace, I do know the aspect overachieved and due for unfavorable regression. The Eagles had been backside 5 in xG, xGA and xPlast season. With that being mentioned, I like what Crystal Palace did within the switch market and assume it helps them turn out to be a 40-point membership.

Crystal Palace offered off their previous, underperforming gamers like Andros Townsend, Patrick van Aanholt and Mamadou Sakho to call just a few, then introduced in some thrilling younger abilities.

The Eagles added middle again Marc Guehi from Chelsea, who spent all final season on mortgage at Swansea; middle again Joachim Anderson from Lyon, who spent final season on mortgage at Fulham; and, and attacking midfielder Michael Olise from Championship aspect Studying.

Crystal Palace nonetheless has Wilfred Zaha, who is without doubt one of the league’s greatest artistic attackers and had 85 shot-creating actions in 27 appearances final season. The Eagles even have one of the vital promising younger midfielders in Eberechi Eze, who’s poised for a breakout marketing campaign..

Crystal Palace additionally has a brand new supervisor in former Arsenal legend Patrick Vieira. He  was not too long ago the supervisor of Good in France, main the membership to a seventh-place end and a spot within the Europa League two season in the past. Nonetheless, after a nasty run of type in late 2020, he was sacked by the membership. Vieira will likely be an improve over former chief Roy Hodgson.

So, I feel this younger Crystal Palace squad has a whole lot of potential this season.

West Ham United — Over 49.5 Factors (-135)

The Hammers had a dream 2020-21 season, ending in sixth place en path to securing a Europa League berth. Whereas they’re prone to regress from attaining 65 factors, the decline received’t be that drastic as a result of West Ham has a very stable roster, particularly on the again.

The membership has fairly presumably the most effective middle defensive-midfield pairing within the league by way of Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček of their 4-2-3-1 formation. 

West Ham’s offense was the rationale why it completed as excessive because it did a season in the past, averaging 1.59 xG per match. Sadly, it should take care of the lack of Jesse Lingard, who came to visit on mortgage in January final season and lit the Olympic Stadium on fireplace. Lingard scored 9 targets and dished out 4 assists in simply 16 appearances.

Nonetheless, outdoors of Lingard, West Ham stored its whole squad collectively and added Alphonsse Areola on mortgage from French big Paris Saint-Germain. Areola spent final season on mortgage with Fulham, ending within the eightieth percentile or above in Put up Shot xG allowed minus precise targets allowed, crosses stopped, and save proportion amongst Europe’s prime 5 leagues.

With just about the very same roster, I feel West Ham is unquestionably a 50-plus level group and may as soon as once more contend for a Europa League spot.

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