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Growth, bust, and every part in between. What does that imply, precisely? If that is your first time studying this piece, you may be questioning that.
When somebody mentions that “Participant X recorded 5 WR1 performances final 12 months,” it irks me a bit. It’s like saying one thing to the impact of “Tyler Lockett completed because the WR8 final 12 months, so he was a rock-solid WR1.” Ask anybody who owned him in fantasy final 12 months if he was the eighth greatest large receiver. He failed to attain greater than 12.3 PPR factors in 10-of-16 video games in 2020. Stating the place somebody completed for a selected week doesn’t do us any good, both, as a result of variance is an actual factor.
To raised show you how to perceive what I’m speaking about, the common top-12 large receiver efficiency in 2020 was 20.6 PPR factors. What you don’t know is that Nelson Agholor scored 21.7 PPR factors in Week 7 however wasn’t awarded a WR1 efficiency as a result of it simply occurred to be a high-scoring week for large receivers. On the flip facet, Adam Humphries scored 18.4 PPR factors in Week 6 and was awarded with a WR1 efficiency as a result of it was a low-scoring week for large receivers.
The participant’s efficiency shouldn’t be graded on a curve, as a result of we now have no management on predicting what that curve is for any specific week. Our objective as analysts is to foretell who could have WR1 performances in any given week, which stood at 20.6 PPR factors in 2020.
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The numbers differ from year-to-year, which is the place the analysis comes into play. Whereas the WR2 quantity was 15.3 PPR factors in 2017, it lowered to 14.9 PPR factors in 2018, then 14.5 PPR factors in 2019, however then shot as much as 15.6 PPR factors in 2020. Each place is totally different, however know that I’ve gone via annually, every place, and every participant, charting what number of top-12, top-24, top-36 performances they’ve had in response to that 12 months’s stats. Not simply that, although, as I’ve added increase and bust classes, which showcases their ceiling and ground on a week-to-week foundation. This analysis is finished on PPR leagues as a result of it’s the format that presents probably the most consistency, which makes it probably the most predictable.
The quantity to attain increase or bust standing varies per place, as some have it more durable than others. With large receivers, the quantity to “increase” wound up on 25.0 PPR factors as a result of it could have amounted to eight receptions for 120 yards and a landing. That quantity can clearly be completed in quite a lot of other ways, however once more, we simply need them to succeed in that quantity. A “bust” then again amounted to lower than 8.0 PPR factors. Under, you’ll find the chart with the parameters for every place.
| Place | Growth | Bust |
| QB | 26.0 | 13.9 or much less |
| RB | 25.0 | 6.9 or much less |
| WR | 25.0 | 7.9 or much less |
| TE | 20.0 | 6.9 or much less |
To provide you an concept as to one thing chances are you’ll discover under, right here’s an instance: Robby Anderson carried out as a WR2 or higher in 43.8 p.c of his video games, but goes because the WR34 in drafts, whereas Tyler Lockett hit that mark in simply 37.5 p.c of his video games however goes because the WR21.
For the fifth time, welcome to Growth, Bust, and All the things In Between. Listed below are the large receivers, whereas the opposite positions will probably be launched all through the remainder of the week. You’ll be capable to discover the hyperlinks under as soon as they go dwell.
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Tight Ends
Vast Receivers
High-10
Let’s begin by looking on the goal hog receivers being taken contained in the top-10, highlighting which of them stand out, in addition to which appear to be they don’t belong. It’s vital to notice that for a participant to build up a sport performed on this examine, they needed to garner not less than one goal. If he was on the sideline beginning the 12 months and never getting any targets, it shouldn’t have an effect on his percentages.
Davante Adams is a king, and no, it’s not only one 12 months. In actual fact, his 2018 season was higher than his 2020 season. Listed below are the final three years on his resume:
| YEAR | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| 2020 | 57.1% | 78.6% | 85.7% | 42.9% | 7.1% |
| 2019 | 41.7% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| 2018 | 60.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
Now that we all know Aaron Rodgers is again, Adams ought to be a locked-in first-round choose and can be my first receiver off the board. In the meantime, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs aren’t far behind, however that’s the tip of the primary tier.
DeAndre Hopkins noticed loads of targets in his first season with the Cardinals, however seeing that he produced WR3 or higher numbers simply 62.5 p.c of the time strikes him out of the elite tier. One may make the argument that Calvin Ridley belongs within the elite tier with Adams, Hill, and Diggs, particularly figuring out that Julio Jones is now out of the image.
There’s only one receiver on this bunch who produced WR2 or higher numbers in lower than 50 p.c of his video games, and that’s Terry McLaurin. He does get a quarterback improve this 12 months, however there’s additionally way more expertise round him, which may cap his goal upside. We’ll discuss extra about him later.
There actually aren’t too many errors drafters are making with the top-10 large receivers, although some ought to be shuffled round, together with A.J. Brown over Justin Jefferson and D.K. Metcalf. You may see Brown posted basically similar numbers to Keenan Allen however with almost three fewer targets per sport. Positive, Julio Jones is now there, however that shouldn’t essentially be used as a adverse, as he’ll see extra single-man protection.
11-20 Vary
This appears to be the vary the place most fantasy house owners imagine a participant will take a leap in manufacturing, as they’re drafting them as WR2s more often than not. However when you choose somebody in a draft, you’re in search of fairness within the choose to develop, so that they nearly must have top-10 upside to be justified.
Anybody who tells you that Tyler Lockett was the No. 9 large receiver final 12 months, I need you to direct them to this chart. He was a WR3 or higher simply 43.8 p.c of the time, which ranked forty fourth amongst large receivers in 2020. However yeah, certain, he was a WR1 at season’s finish. This chart was additionally not form to CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Kupp, who carried out as a WR2 or higher in lower than 40 p.c of their video games. The rationale for optimism right here is that they’ll each have a quarterback improve in 2021, and we’ve already seen Kupp produce higher numbers up to now.
Some would possibly say that Adam Thielen is being undervalued this 12 months, although I’d disagree with that sentiment. He’s correctly valued as a WR2, as touchdowns closely impacted his performances final 12 months, and that reveals while you take a look at his bust charge. It’s no shock that each Theilen and Justin Jefferson had the identical variety of busts as they did booms, as a result of the offense doesn’t have a ton of quantity, resulting in a little bit of inconsistency.
Julio Jones has been a stud on this examine for years regardless of not having excessive landing totals, and although accidents affected his numbers in 2020, he has a brand new workforce in 2021. I’d be prepared to say that Ryan Tannehill is an improve over Matt Ryan, although the amount in his new offense will not be as excessive because it was in Atlanta, transferring him into high-end WR2 territory. It’s arduous to grasp why he’s going after Mike Evans contemplating the historical past of the 2.
21-30 Vary
We’re now to the purpose the place you’ll see a number of the extra constant choices who could not have the WR1 upside that these within the 11-20 vary do, however they’re usually the receivers who include a greater ground.
This was an eye-opening revelation I had whereas placing this text collectively. Why draft Terry McLaurin within the third spherical when you possibly can draft Diontae Johnson within the fifth (and typically sixth) spherical? Positive, you are able to do each, however check out this:
Remember the fact that Johnson wasn’t even notably environment friendly along with his targets final 12 months. Each different receiver who noticed greater than 8.5 targets per sport is being drafted as a top-12 large receiver. That is your likelihood to steal Johnson at a significant low cost.
Kenny Golladay‘s numbers recommend he’d be an amazing WR2 to have, however his new workforce and quarterback are discounting his worth, and rightfully so. The opposite famous person on this territory is Brandon Aiyuk, who ought to be method up within the low-end WR1/high-end WR2 dialog based mostly on his 2020 numbers. Nevertheless, there are lots of various things we have to think about. The 49ers have a wholesome secure of working backs, a rookie quarterback that figures to take over earlier than lengthy, and most significantly, they’ve George Kittle and Deebo Samuel again within the lineup. There have been simply 4 video games the place the trio have been on the sector collectively, and through that point, Aiyuk noticed simply 21 targets (the bottom of the three) and had 13/189/1 mixed in these video games. It’s sufficient to low cost his worth, however the upside is unquestionably there.
Odell Beckham’s numbers have been worse than I believed in 2020. He’s been tumbling down the charts because the years have gone on, however his worth in drafts lastly displays that. After being completely dominant (was one of the best charted receiver on this examine for the primary 5 years of his profession), he’s now trended within the fallacious course in back-to-back years.
| YEAR | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| 2020 | 14.3% | 28.6% | 28.6% | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| 2019 | 12.5% | 31.3% | 56.3% | 6.3% | 25.0% |
| 2018 | 41.7% | 66.7% | 83.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 50.0% | 75.0% | 75.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| 2016 | 37.5% | 68.8% | 68.8% | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| 2015 | 53.3% | 73.3% | 73.3% | 40.0% | 6.7% |
| 2014 | 58.3% | 83.3% | 91.7% | 41.7% | 8.3% |
Getting him as your WR3 within the sixth or seventh spherical leaves you unbelievable progress potential, and when you miss, it’s not like we are able to’t discover one other WR3 on the waiver wire or later within the draft.
Many can be shocked by Tee Higgins‘ numbers, which recommend he was extra of a WR3 than a locked-in WR1 or WR2 final 12 months, although dropping Burrow for the final two months of the season actually didn’t assist. It appears many predict Chase Claypool to take an enormous leap in 2021 seeing he’s going forward of JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose numbers have been higher throughout the board in the identical offense final 12 months. Now that we’ve talked about Smith-Schuster, it’s an excellent time to deliver up that he’s the discounted model of Robert Woods.
31-40 Vary
It’s powerful to say what house owners search for on this vary, as some wish to play it secure with a veteran who’s a lock for seven targets per sport, whereas others are prepared to take their pictures on gamers who provide week-winning upside, even when it means sacrificing a fantasy ground.
*It ought to be famous that I moved Michael Thomas to WR35 based mostly on ECR slightly than ADP just because it hadn’t caught up by the point I began scripting this.
In the event you look strictly on the targets right here, you’ll discover that Robby Anderson stands proud like a sore thumb. He was a stable WR2/3 to depend on and would slot in with proper behind guys like Terry McLaurin and Robert Woods, although he lacked the WR1 performances to get there. Nonetheless in the identical offense, he ought to be going a tad greater, although the transfer to Sam Darnold does create some uncertainty.
Will Fuller is the clear outlier on this group, however he’s going from Deshaun Watson to Tua Tagovailoa, and will probably be surrounded by extra weapons in Miami. The numbers he posted in 2020 have been completely top-10 worthy, so it’s a disgrace to see him go away (although Watson would possibly as nicely). The receiver left behind in Houston is Brandin Cooks, who can also be wanting like a worth late in drafts. Getting a participant as a WR4 who produced as a WR3 or higher 60 p.c of the time is superb worth. If Watson have been to play this 12 months, Cooks ought to be within the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 vary.
We’ve recognized Jarvis Landry to be a participant we may depend on for constant, regular manufacturing, however that wasn’t the case in 2020, and that was with Odell Beckham lacking a lot of the season. Him falling to WR40 makes extra sense than his finish of 12 months finishes in recent times. If Drew Lock is the starter, it’s dangerous information for Jerry Jeudy, who had no reliability final season.
41-60 Vary
That is the territory the place fantasy managers have to grasp the gamers they’ve on their roster, as a result of that is bench territory. Do you’ve got a bunch of confirmed gamers who would possibly lack some upside? That is your space to take some danger. Do you’ve got lots of upside gamers who would possibly bust? That is your space to snag some safer gamers.
It’s superb to get Antonio Brown the place we’re in drafts. His WR3 or higher charge of 62.5 p.c ranked seventeenth within the NFL, tied with DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Jefferson, and Mike Evans. Remember the fact that’s after a 12 months off soccer and studying a brand new offensive system on the fly. He may be one of the best worth in fantasy soccer drafts. Some may be enthusiastic about Curtis Samuel‘s marks on this chart, however don’t overlook he’s not on the Panthers. He’s going again to Scott Turner’s offense, which wasn’t so form to him in 2019.
Why is Corey Davis lasting so long as he’s? He went from being the No. 2 in a low-volume offense, to now being the No. 1 possibility on a workforce that’s going to throw the ball much more than the Titans did. His scenario acquired higher, whereas Tyler Lockett‘s remained the identical. Now, check out the chart under and clarify to me why there’s a 7-8 spherical hole between these two in ADP:
| Participant | Tgts/gm | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| Tyler Lockett | 8.3 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.8% | 18.8% | 31.3% |
| Corey Davis | 6.6 | 21.4% | 35.7% | 50.0% | 14.3% | 21.4% |
Until the Raiders fully revamp the offense and alter how they view/make the most of Henry Ruggs, his ADP makes little sense. It’s nonetheless the identical quarterback and the identical offense, so there’s little motive to assume there’ll be a drastic change. I’d a lot slightly take gamers like Michael Gallup, Cole Beasley, Sterling Shepard, and Christian Kirk.
DeVante Parker has been a worth in recent times, and his numbers in 2020 have been higher than his present ADP, however I’d argue he ought to transfer additional down with the acquisition of each Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. Marvin Jones goes to a brand new workforce with a rookie quarterback, which brings volatility to his projection, however he’s confirmed to make it work with totally different quarterbacks all through his profession. It’s potential he’s being undervalued.
61-80 Vary
That is the pure sleeper territory for many who are chosen with one among your remaining picks. These are the fellows you’ll lower in the event that they don’t carry out in Week 1 to snag the recent waiver wire pickup.
The very first thing you’ll discover is that Jamison Crowder was higher than you thought final 12 months. In actual fact, he had higher numbers than Tyler Lockett throughout the board. Nevertheless, this isn’t the identical offense or similar regime. The Jets have a brand new head coach, new play-caller, new quarterback, and extra importantly new receivers, together with second-round choose Elijah Moore. They basically compelled Crowder to chop his pay in half if he needed to stick with the workforce, and whereas he did, it wouldn’t shock me to see Moore cross him on the depth chart comparatively rapidly.
John Brown is on a brand new workforce, so these numbers don’t actually imply an entire lot, however he ought to be the No. 1 possibility at large receiver on the Raiders. Well being has at all times been an impediment for him, however when on the sector, he’s a lot better than his WR62 ADP. Nelson Agholor is the one Brown is changing, as he went off to the Patriots. It may end up that Agholor is simply higher than his time in Philadelphia confirmed, as he posted stable numbers 12 months one with the Raiders. Can he do the identical with the Patriots? It’s just about free to search out out.
Primarily based on this chart, it could seem Russell Gage is being undervalued as nicely, however don’t overlook it’s a brand new offense that doesn’t run almost as many 3WR units because the Falcons did final 12 months. In the event that they did, he’d be the cheaper model of Cole Beasley.
Certainly one of my favourite values late in drafts is Jakobi Meyers, who basically took over Julian Edelman’s function within the offense as soon as he went down. Remember the fact that his numbers on the chart embody a sport the place he noticed one goal as Edelman’s backup.
What We Realized
It’s fairly uncommon to search out large receivers who’ll produce WR1-type numbers greater than 33 p.c of the time. There have been simply 11 of them in 2020. Heck, there have been simply three of them in all of 2019. The place simply isn’t almost as constant as working backs.
With extra three- and four-wide receiver units, we’re seeing extra receivers contribute on a weekly foundation, although it’s eradicating the weekly consistency of elite goal shares. For the template on large receivers, you ought to be aiming in your WR1 to hit WR2 or higher numbers not less than 55 p.c of the time, with WR1-type numbers 33 p.c of the time. Your WR2 ought to be hitting WR2 or higher numbers not less than 45 p.c of the time with WR1-type numbers 25 p.c of the time. And lastly, your WR3 ought to be posting not less than WR3-type numbers not less than 55 p.c of the time.
A number of the gamers who stood out right here on this article (with out their conditions being modified for the more severe) based mostly on the place they’re being drafted embody Calvin Ridley, Diontae Johnson, Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown, Corey Davis, and Jakobi Meyers.
A number of the gamers who don’t look so nice when in comparison with their ADP embody D.K. Metcalf, CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Odell Beckham, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs. Does this imply all of them will fail to dwell as much as their ADP? No, there are elements that make me like a few of them fairly a bit, however they need to come at a bit extra of a reduction contemplating their performances in 2020.
In case you missed it, the running backs have been posted yesterday, with the quarterbacks and tight ends coming within the subsequent few days.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured author at FantasyPros. For extra from Mike, try his archive and observe him @MikeTagliereNFL.
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