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Final yr was a foul season for third-year receivers. The Class of 2018 had much more busts than breakouts, and it was irritating. Hopefully, the Class of 2019 might be higher as third-year stars this season. Of the gamers we touted final yr as third-year breakout receivers, solely Calvin Ridley stepped up. D.J. Moore and D.J. Chark have been disappointments, Courtland Sutton missed the complete yr with a torn ACL and accidents and poor play additionally hampered Michael Gallup, Allen Lazard, Christian Kirk and Anthony Miller.
Should you do not consider in third-year receiver breakouts anymore then 2020 is an effective season to carry up for instance. However I am nonetheless shopping for into the idea {that a} receiver’s greatest likelihood to interrupt out is available in his third season within the NFL. There are too many examples of this to disregard, together with Ridley from final yr.
Another latest third-year breakouts are Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp and Kenny Golladay. And traditionally, you may level to Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Cris Carter, Terrell Owens and Keyshawn Johnson, amongst others.
Now, this doesn’t suggest receivers are solely good of their third season. Removed from it. Clearly, receivers can nonetheless be good in 12 months 1 and 12 months 2, and we have seen that already from the Class of 2019.
For instance, three third-year receivers in 2021 — A.J. Brown, D.Ok. Metcalf and Terry McLaurin — have already produced at a excessive degree of their first two seasons. However they nonetheless have the possibility to do extra, and this could possibly be the yr it occurs.
I have been writing about third-year receivers for greater than 15 years. I’ve talked to quite a few receivers and coaches about it, starting from Jerry Rice and Carter to Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin — and plenty of extra.
The third-year huge receiver idea relies on gamers on the place having a breakout marketing campaign after two full seasons within the NFL. What some receivers have stated is it takes no less than two years to develop. They should learn to hone their craft, develop a rapport with their quarterback and in addition perceive defenses higher.
Metcalf, for instance, has the possibility to boost his route tree this yr with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. McLaurin will get a quarterback improve with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brown may see much less protection with Julio Jones in Tennessee, and perhaps the Titans open up the passing sport now that they’ve a extra strong receiving corps, which may result in extra targets.
We’ll dissect all the high receivers from the Class of 2019, and hopefully, this group is healthier than the Class of 2018. I like the blokes for this season way more than final yr, and hopefully, they ship in an enormous method.
However I additionally perceive you would possibly dismiss this idea based mostly on what some guys have completed of their first two seasons. Together with Brown, Metcalf and McLaurin producing at a excessive degree of their first two years, we additionally noticed Justin Jefferson simply have a historic rookie marketing campaign.
Due to how faculty offenses are working today, many receivers come into the NFL extra ready than ever earlier than. Their maturation course of is accelerated, and the training curve is not as steep.
And so reasonably than Fantasy gamers gravitating towards third-year breakouts, they’re as a substitute simply utilizing it as one other a part of the decision-making course of. It is not essentially a precedence anymore.
I am nonetheless a believer within the third-year receiver idea. It may not be as related as in earlier years, however I nonetheless goal receivers getting into their third season, with the expectation this could possibly be a breakout marketing campaign. And most of the guys listed right here might be on a number of my Fantasy rosters in 2021.
The Stars
These are guys you are drafting within the first three rounds in all leagues.
A.J. Brown, Titans
2019: 52 catches, 1,051 yards, 8 touchdowns, 84 targets
2020: 70 catches, 1,075 yards, 11 touchdowns, 106 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 77 catches, 1,299 yards, 11 touchdowns, 121 targets
Outlook: When 2020 ended, I believed Brown had the possibility to be the No. 1 Fantasy receiver this yr in all codecs. The addition of Julio Jones in Tennessee makes that aim tougher to attain, however Brown ought to nonetheless be thought-about a borderline top-five receiver in all leagues. He will stay the most suitable choice for Ryan Tannehill, even with Jones on the roster, and he is confirmed to be among the many greatest receivers within the NFL by means of two years. He is scored no less than 20 PPR factors in 10 of his previous 20 video games going again to his rookie marketing campaign. And over that span, he is did not high 14 PPR factors simply six occasions. Brown needs to be drafted in Spherical 2 in all codecs.
We had a enjoyable time breaking down Fantasy Football rankings disputes on the most recent FFT and sure it did even get heated at occasions:
D.Ok. Metcalf, Seahawks
2019: 58 catches, 900 yards, 7 touchdowns, 100 targets
2020: 83 catches, 1,303 yards, 10 touchdowns, 129 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 84 catches, 1,295 yards, 10 touchdowns, 136 targets
Outlook: Metcalf will hopefully make that third-year leap because the Seattle passing sport is anticipated to be extra numerous below new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. That ought to assist Tyler Lockett as effectively, however Metcalf has star potential and could possibly be the most effective receiver in Fantasy if every little thing clicks this season. He began final yr on a torrid tempo, with no less than 19 PPR factors in six of his first eight video games, and he had no less than eight targets in 5 video games over that span. For the season, he had 10 video games with no less than eight targets in 2020, and he scored no less than 18 PPR factors in seven of these outings. This needs to be an enormous season for Metcalf, who’s value drafting as early as Spherical 2 in all leagues.
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Terry McLaurin, Washington Soccer Group
2019: 58 catches, 919 yards, 7 touchdowns, 93 targets
2020: 87 catches, 1,118 yards, 4 touchdowns, 134 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 87 catches, 1,209 yards, 7 touchdowns, 135 targets
Outlook: I am most likely larger on McLaurin than most, and I’d not be shocked if he is a top-five Fantasy receiver this yr with the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Since 2010, in stops with the Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets and Dolphins, Fitzpatrick has eight seasons with no less than 9 begins. Over that span, his No. 1 receiver — Steve Johnson (3 times), Kendall Wright, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall (twice) and DeVante Parker — had no less than 128 targets on the yr. There have been seven occasions the place the No. 1 receiver had no less than 72 catches, six occasions the place the No. 1 receiver had no less than 1,000 yards and 3 times the place the No. 1 receiver had no less than 10 touchdowns. McLaurin has competitors in Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, Logan Thomas and the working backs, however I count on Fitzpatrick to lean on McLaurin. He is value drafting as early as Spherical 3 in all leagues.
The Subsequent Greatest
These are guys you are drafting within the first eight rounds.
2019: 59 catches, 680 yards, 5 touchdowns, 92 targets
2020: 88 catches, 923 yards, 7 touchdowns, 144 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 100 catches, 988 yards, 6 touchdowns, 160 targets
Outlook: Some would possibly say Johnson belongs within the high class after the best way he performed in 2020. Solely 12 receivers had extra receptions than Johnson final yr, and he was No. 6 in targets. However clearly, there’s room for enchancment, particularly in yards and touchdowns. He additionally has to chop down on his league-leading 16 drops from final yr, which is not one thing you need to be involved about (Tyreek Hill, for instance, had 11 drops). Now, the hope is Ben Roethlisberger is healthier in his second season again from elbow surgical procedure, and he entered coaching camp in nice form and stuffed with optimism. Nevertheless, Johnson additionally has to cope with a crowded receiving corps, which incorporates JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron and Najee Harris. I used to be an enormous believer in Johnson final yr, and I am concentrating on him once more in his third season. He is value drafting as early as Spherical 4 in PPR and Spherical 5 in different codecs.
2019: 46 catches, 584 yards, 7 touchdowns, 71 targets
2020: 58 catches, 769 yards, 8 touchdowns, 100 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 62 catches, 870 yards, 8 touchdowns, 99 targets
Outlook: Brown closed final season on a excessive word, averaging 15.5 PPR factors in his remaining six video games. He had no less than seven targets in 4 of these outings, and hopefully, he can construct off that heading into this yr. Whereas he ought to stay a high goal for Lamar Jackson, the Ravens added loads of competitors at receiver with free agent Sammy Watkins, first-round decide Rashod Bateman and fourth-round decide Tylan Wallace. Brown needs to be higher than all of them, however he solely has three video games in his profession with greater than eight targets within the common season. And the Ravens have been final within the NFL in go makes an attempt in 2020 and 2019 — when Jackson was the MVP. I like Brown as a low-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver and key reserve coming into the yr in all leagues, and he is value drafting with a mid-round decide.
2019: 57 catches, 802 yards, 3 touchdowns, 81 targets
2020: 33 catches, 391 yards, 1 landing, 44 targets (7 video games)
2021 SportsLine projections: 76 catches, 991 yards, 4 touchdowns, 108 targets
Outlook: Samuel was stable as a rookie in 2019, averaging 15.5 PPR factors per sport over his remaining eight outings. However accidents and extra competitors ruined his sophomore marketing campaign, and we’ll see if he can get again on observe this yr. We’ll should see what San Francisco does at quarterback with rookie Trey Lance competing with Jimmy Garoppolo for the beginning job, and that may impression Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. And clearly, Samuel has to cope with Aiyuk and Kittle stealing manufacturing. Each of these guys have a better ceiling than Samuel, and it may take Samuel doing extra as a rusher to assist his manufacturing. As a rookie, Samuel had 14 carries for 159 yards and three touchdowns, with the touchdowns troublesome to duplicate. I am wonderful taking a flier on Samuel with a mid-round decide, however I am not overly optimistic about his Fantasy manufacturing if Aiyuk and Kittle are wholesome.
Maintain An Eye On These WRs
These are guys you are drafting with late-round picks.
2019: 26 catches, 538 yards, 6 touchdowns, 41 targets
2020: 41 catches, 560 yards, 4 touchdowns, 62 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 49 catches, 719 yards, 7 touchdowns, 75 targets
Outlook: The Athletic reported in early July that Hardman will enter coaching camp because the No. 2 receiver in Kansas Metropolis reverse Hill. That makes Hardman a really interesting Fantasy possibility with a late-round decide in all leagues. With Watkins gone, Hardman will hopefully show the Chiefs made the best resolution to pick out him within the second spherical of the NFL Draft — forward of Metcalf, Johnson and McLaurin. Watkins averaged 6.0 targets per sport in 24 video games within the common season with the Chiefs over the previous two seasons, and hopefully, Hardman absorbs these targets. He has six video games in his profession with no less than six targets in a sport, and he averaged 14.2 PPR factors per sport in these outings. That is an excellent place to begin when Hardman’s upside, together with taking part in with Patrick Mahomes and reverse Hill and Travis Kelce. Now, the Chiefs may decide to begin Demarcus Robinson or Byron Pringle forward of Hardman, so keep watch over what occurs in coaching camp. However Hardman could possibly be a big difference-maker given his anticipated Common Draft Place within the double-digit rounds.
2019: 18 catches, 127 yards, 1 landing, 24 targets
2020: 6 catches, 71 yards, 9 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 43 catches, 447 yards, 3 touchdowns, 62 targets
Outlook: The most important problem for Campbell is well being since he is performed in simply 9 video games in two seasons. He stated in Might that he is wholesome following the knee harm that ended his season in 2020 in Week 2, however he nonetheless has loads to show — to Fantasy managers and the Colts. New quarterback Carson Wentz will hopefully lean on Campbell to no matter quantity he is on the sphere, and Indianapolis has no less than two receivers forward of him in T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman. The Colts may use Campbell in a wide range of methods, together with as a rusher, and he had an incredible remaining season at Ohio State in 2018 with 90 catches, 1,063 yards and 12 touchdowns. It could be nice if he stays wholesome and turns into a trusted weapon for Wentz, however Campbell is simply value drafting with a late-round decide in all leagues.
Deep League Choices
These are guys you would possibly take a late-round flier on in deeper leagues.
2019: 12 catches, 105 yards, 2 touchdowns, 24 targets
2020: 33 catches, 309 yards, 2 touchdowns, 57 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 42 catches, 390 yards, 4 touchdowns, 79 targets
Outlook: The one purpose to think about Harry in any redraft Fantasy leagues is that if he is traded from the Patriots. He requested a commerce in July, however he is doubtless heading to coaching camp in New England. He is been a first-round bust because the second receiver chosen on this class behind Brown at No. 32 total from Arizona State, however perhaps a recent begin can unleash his potential. Regulate what occurs, and a commerce may make Harry value a late-round flier in deeper codecs. With the Patriots, Harry has virtually no shot as a Fantasy asset this yr.
2019: 48 catches, 740 yards, 8 touchdowns, 83 targets
2020: 50 catches, 751 yards, 3 touchdowns, 96 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 44 targets, 612 yards, 5 touchdowns, 81 targets
Outlook: It was a foul offseason for Slayton after the Giants added free agent Kenny Golladay and first-round decide Kadarius Toney. With Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley nonetheless on the roster, it’ll be onerous for Slayton to make a big impression if everyone seems to be wholesome. Whereas Slayton regarded good as a rookie, together with 4 video games with no less than 16 PPR factors, it is clear the Giants do not have a lot religion in him. That stated, ought to an harm happen to Golladay, Toney or Shepard then Slayton may return to a primary place. He may find yourself as a waiver-wire goal in the course of the yr.
2019: no catches, 3 targets
2020: 38 catches, 539 yards, 4 touchdowns, 67 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 5 catches, 65 yards, 9 targets
Outlook: For 5 video games final season, Fulgham was a star Fantasy receiver. From Weeks 4-8, he averaged 18.8 PPR factors per sport. He had three video games with no less than 19 PPR factors and three video games with no less than 10 targets. After which he disappeared, combining for simply 16 PPR factors over the remainder of the yr. He enters this yr because the potential No. 3 receiver for the Eagles behind DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor, however Fulgham may have Fantasy relevance in deeper leagues in that position. We’ll see what occurs in coaching camp, and Fulgham could possibly be value a late-round flier in deeper leagues. Perhaps he may have a quick stint as a star once more as he confirmed us in 2020.
Scotty Miller, Buccaneers
2019: 13 catches, 200 yards, 1 landing, 26 targets
2020: 33 catches, 501 yards, 3 touchdowns, 53 targets
2021 SportsLine projections: 20 catches, 300 yards, 2 touchdowns, 34 targets
Outlook: It can take an harm for Miller to have Fantasy relevance this season, and he is not value drafting in any leagues. Nevertheless, ought to one thing occur to Chris Godwin, Mike Evans or Antonio Brown then we could possibly be including Miller off the waiver wire. In 2020, Miller had 5 video games with no less than 5 targets, and he averaged 14.0 PPR factors over that span. Whereas we do not wish to see Godwin, Evans or Brown miss any time, Miller may find yourself as a high quality alternative possibility off the waiver wire in the course of the season.
Jalen Hurd, 49ers
2019: no catches
2020: no catches
2021 SportsLine projections: 12 catches, 190 yards, 1 landing, 16 targets
Outlook: Hurd has by no means performed a down within the NFL. He missed 2019 with again points and suffered a torn ACL final season. However he could possibly be the No. 3 receiver for the 49ers this yr, and he is value maintaining a tally of simply in case he is lastly wholesome. Now, if Samuel goes to battle for targets, it’ll be even worse for Hurd behind Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle. If Hurd is wholesome and wins the No. 3 receiver job for San Francisco then he could possibly be value a late-round flier in deeper leagues.
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