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The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs didn’t simply win the AFC West in 2020, they completely strolled it.
Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and co completed six video games away from Las Vegas with the Chargers and Broncos mentioning the rear.
No shock then that KC is a red-hot favorite on NFL betting lines to repeat in 2021, however when you’ve obtained that out of the way in which, it begins to get a bit of bit bizarre.
Sure the Chargers have Justin Herbert coming off a stellar rookie 12 months, and sure Denver has a talent-laden roster. However we nonetheless can’t work out why Las Vegas – second within the West in 2020 – is thrice their odds.
The larger image query after all – ever since he signed that blockbusting 10-year $450million deal – is whether or not the Chiefs now have the cap room now to encompass Mahomes with sufficient expertise to win extra Tremendous Bowls.
When Patrick gained his first Lombardi Trophy he was nonetheless on his rookie deal – terrific worth for KC. Now the principles are very completely different and he accounts for round 25 % of the Chiefs cap.
KC should steadiness the good thing about having probably the most proficient quarterback within the NFL with the necessity to nonetheless construct a roster able to difficult for championships.
As we noticed in 2020, simply having Mahomes will not be sufficient. He was battered and befuddled in that 31-9 defeat by the Bucs in Tremendous Bowl LV. How will they rebound?
AFC West in 2020: KC in a one-horse race
When you’re in search of a phase right here which talks in regards to the race for the AFC West title in 2020, you’re about to be upset. There wasn’t one.
Whereas the Raiders began nicely, beating KC en path to a 6-3 begin, they imploded after dropping the return sport in Week 11 and collapsed to an 8-8 end. The Chiefs in the meantime had been nearly good in registering a 14-2 season and clinching the primary seed for the AFC playoffs.
The Chargers did flash potential for the long run, largely within the form of a terrific rookie season for quarterback Justin Herbert (AP Offensive Rookie Of The 12 months). Los Angeles was 3-9 and formally out of post-season rivalry although earlier than it reeled off 4 wins to finish the season.
A few of the hope for the Chargers comes from how shut it was to being considerably higher. It blew a collection of fourth-quarter leads and a number of other of these losses had been shut.
Denver, regardless of constructing a roster filled with promise, was decimated by accidents and damage by poor quarterback play and a below-par protection. All these elements must be very completely different in 2021 if the Broncos are to get anyplace close to the Chiefs as the category of the West.
Ultimate Standings
- 14-2 Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
- 8-8 Las Vegas Raiders
- 7-9 Los Angeles Chargers
- 5-11 Denver Broncos
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs in 2021
The Chiefs gained 16 video games in 2020 and went to a different Tremendous Bowl. So why wouldn’t they be heavy favourites to win a division which wasn’t even aggressive final 12 months?
There’s a seismic shift wanted to make it a race in ‘21, when it comes to regression by Andy Reid’s males and enchancment elsewhere within the division. However some consultants nonetheless consider it would occur.
We obtained a high-profile sneak peek at what may occur in KC throughout Tremendous Bowl LV. Mahomes had a sieve for an offensive line and took a horrendous beating from a stellar Tampa D. Ultimate = 31-9 Tampa.
That confirmed that Mahomes alone can not assure a championship, and the Chiefs should on the very least shield him adequately in the event that they hope to play within the greatest sport of all for the third consecutive season.
Colin Cowherd reveals his first official AFC predictions for the 2021 NFL season | NFL | THE HERD
Not stunning then that Kansas Metropolis made a decided effort to make enhancements to its offensive line within the offseason. Out went Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, whereas in got here a number of new faces.
Sort out Orlando Brown Jr arrived by way of a blockbusting commerce with Baltimore, whereas one of many league’s greatest guards – former Patriot Joe Thuney – inked a five-year $80million deal in free company.
The Chiefs weren’t performed there both, as they spent a premium draft decide (Spherical 2) on Oklahoma middle Creed Humphrey. In the meantime guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif – an optout in 2020 – will return this 12 months.
Lastly, the Chiefs took an opportunity that Kyle Lengthy – coming off a 12 months in “retirement” – can come again refreshed and wholesome by signing the previous Bear to an economical one-year deal.
These adjustments not solely give Kansas Metropolis a much-needed injection of expertise up entrance, in addition they supply nice versatility. An enormous step in the appropriate path to repair a pronounced 2020 weak spot.
There aren’t any such worries after all at ability positions, Mahomes will once more have two of probably the most potent receiving weapons round in WR Tyreek Hill and all-world TE Travis Kelce.
Most groups within the NFL who throw a ton of {dollars} at offense (nothing incorrect with that) find yourself being horribly uncovered on protection.
There isn’t any doubt that it’s the group’s weak spot (in comparison with that high-powered offensive assault), with some key query marks. Notably the standing of star defensive finish Frank Clark, arrested within the offseason for unlawful possession of a hid firearm in a car.
Kansas Metropolis did use its prime draft decide – a second-rounder – to snag Missouri linebacker Nick Bolton, whereas Florida State defensive finish Joshua Kaindoh was chosen within the fourth.
The Chiefs ranked precisely center of the pack for whole protection in 2020 – all that’s wanted to go deep into the playoffs you probably have the flexibility to attain at will.
There are considerations within the secondary regardless of the group buying and selling for Vikings nook Brian Hughes. The Chiefs didn’t tackle nook in any respect within the draft.
Abstract: The Chiefs are all in on a 3rd consecutive Tremendous Bowl go to, and their total MO is to construct round Mahomes – why wouldn’t it’s at $45m per season?
The strikes it has made to rebuild the offensive line are important and in the event that they do the job, count on KC to be unstoppable once more.
The protection is one other matter, we’ve outlined the considerations. However the extra we take into consideration this, we can not see previous one other AFC West title on the very least. These 1/3 odds aren’t nice for punters – however the worth is solely merited.
Las Vegas Raiders in 2021
Okay we’ll be completely clear up entrance, we’ve by no means been followers of Jon Gruden as a head coach. And nothing we’ve seen in Las Vegas has modified that.
That Tremendous Bowl Gruden gained in Tampa in early 2003 had far more to do with the fearsome protection Tony Dungy constructed than something ‘Chucky’ did after he walked into the constructing.
However regardless of our disdain for Gruden, we nonetheless don’t get that huge odds differential between his group and people of Los Angeles and significantly Denver.
One purpose is recency bias – Las Vegas dropped 5 of its final seven video games in 2020 after a wonderful 6-3 begin which included a win over the mighty Chiefs.
Regardless of that we’d nonetheless take Derek Carr over something Denver has to supply at quarterback proper now, and that very same recency bias performs massively into the Chargers’ skinny worth to win the West.
Derek Carr needs to be a Las Vegas Raider ‘for all times’ | Brother From One other
Don’t get us incorrect, that is all a bit moot as we don’t count on the Raiders to return near profitable the division, we simply don’t agree with the percentages.
It was Carr’s groin damage late final season which actually ended any hopes of a profitable document for Las Vegas – earlier than that he’d been wonderful, passing for greater than 4000 yards in addition to 27 touchdowns (solely 9 INTs). These Raider followers who’re nonetheless hating on him? They’d miss him if he was gone.
Derek was super-accurate too, finishing greater than 67 % of his passes, and a repeat of these stats in 2021 will set the Raiders up properly to at very least problem for #2 within the West.
Carr will as soon as once more be throwing to one of many league’s greatest tight ends within the sensationally proficient Darren Waller, whereas Josh Jacobs (with Kenyan Drake now behind him) give the Raiders a decent floor sport.
It will be good if Las Vegas had someone on the skin who can actually terrify defenses, it’s been some time since that they had a 1000-yard wideout. Time for the likes of 2020 first-round decide Henry Ruggs to step up and produce. And to suppose the Raiders may have had CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy OR Justin Jefferson as a substitute.
The massive concern on offense for the Raiders is the road – in brief they blew up a unit which had been one of many higher teams within the league. Out went Rodney Hudson, Trent Brown and Gabe Jackson, to get replaced by three new starters.
Probably the most high-profile offseason transfer Vegas made was to take Alabama OT Alex Leatherwood with the seventeenth general choice within the draft. Seen as a attain by many draftniks, he’ll seemingly outline this class for massively revered GM Mike Mayock.
Whereas the turnover on that line is more likely to be giving Carr sleepless nights proper now, he’s in all probability questioning when the protection goes to start out giving him some assist too.
The Raiders ranked twenty fifth in whole protection in 2020, with the secondary particularly being torched regularly.
Las Vegas did at the very least make some strikes to enhance that unit, inking Chargers vet Casey Hayward to a one-year deal price $4million.
But it surely was the draft the place the Raiders deployed most sources by taking 4 defensive backs – headed by TCU security Trevon Moehrig. He must be a cornerstone piece fairly rapidly.
Abstract: It wouldn’t be regular if no person was hammering Gruden and the Raiders – we’re vulnerable to it ourselves. However when the group signed ‘Chucky’ to that 10-year $100million contract it was to return this group to the land of the dwelling.
We are actually heading into 12 months 4 of the second Gruden period with the Raiders, and nonetheless the group awaits a return to the post-season regardless of annual enchancment within the wins column. Higher once more will likely be anticipated in 2021.
A profitable document will demand one other wonderful season from Carr, extra big-play functionality outdoors, these O-line adjustments to gel rapidly and the protection to step up. If not, count on extra disappointment on the Strip.
Los Angeles Chargers in 2021
New Chargers Brandon Staley HC is already favorite within the betting Stateside to be Coach Of The 12 months in 2021.
Now we are going to caveat by saying it’s 14/1 the sphere, nevertheless it does let you know one thing in regards to the state of affairs Staley is inheriting.
Staley, who coached the Rams protection to be the perfect within the NFL in 2020, hardly had any upheaval shifting jobs – the Chargers and the Rams now share SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Which simply occurs to be the host website for Tremendous Bowl LVI subsequent February.
The potential which certainly factored into Staley taking the job is headlined by second-year quarterback Justin Herbert. He was wonderful as a rookie, beginning 15 video games and throwing for greater than 4300 yards and 31 touchdowns.
Herbert’s performances didn’t at all times translate to wins, however the way in which Los Angeles completed the season with 4 straight wins has pleasure excessive amongst Bolts followers heading into 2021.
Justin has loads of weapons to work with, headed by WR Keenan Allen, whereas the departed Hunter Henry is changed at TE by Jared Cook dinner – a wise one-year signing by the entrance workplace.
Former Packer Corey Linsley (5 years, $62.5million) was one of many league’s greatest facilities in 2020 and may anchor the offensive line shifting ahead, whereas former Pittsburgh guard Matt Feiler (three years, $21million) additional beefs up the entrance.
Stephen A. reacts to the Chargers firing head coach Anthony Lynn | First Take
In addition to having offensive firepower to burn, the Chargers additionally had a top-10 protection in 2020, anchored by that beast of a defensive finish Joey Bosa. When wholesome he is without doubt one of the league’s greatest.
On the again finish the Chargers have one other potential famous person in security Derwin James – IF he can keep wholesome. He has hardly figured within the final two seasons after a stellar rookie 12 months in 2018, however he ought to be again to full health to start out 2021.
Los Angeles topped off a wonderful offseason by incomes plaudits for draft, kicked off by having highly-rated Northwestern OT Rashawn Slater fall into their laps at #13 general.
Their second-round decide additionally may turn into a steal – Florida State CB Asante Samuel Jr (son of the previous Patriots standout), whereas Spherical 3 introduced a pair of latest weapons for Herbert in Tennessee WR Josh Palmer and Georgia TE Tre’ McKitty.
Abstract: When you’re in search of a purpose the Chargers had been 3-9 and out of the playoffs earlier than they lastly obtained on monitor, the firing of Anthony Lynn and rent of Staley ought to offer you a clue.
Lynn was the autumn man for failing to maximise all that potential, and now it falls on Staley’s shoulders to get the specified outcomes from an thrilling roster.
Until they discover loopy methods to lose once more this ought to be a profitable group in 2021. Is it ok to dethrone the Chiefs? That’s a giant ask.
Denver Broncos in 2021
It’s nearly felony {that a} Denver roster with a lot assembled expertise may find yourself 5-11 and in final place within the AFC West. However that’s what accidents and the dearth of a franchise QB will do to you.
Denver will hope to have higher luck with well being in 2021, however the query mark on the sport’s most vital place stays.
Buying and selling for Teddy Bridgewater from Carolina at the very least supplies competitors for 2019 second-round draft decide Drew Lock. However he’s not the long-term reply.
There may be nonetheless after all the possibility that Denver will end up acquiring last year’s MVP in Aaron Rodgers. He stays sad in Inexperienced Bay, and at some stage one of many two events might want to budge.
The final time John Elway and Denver gained a Tremendous Bowl, it got here from going all out to get the perfect QB available on the market – then free agent Peyton Manning. Rodgers will not be precisely free – however he would immediately rework the Broncos to difficult KC for favouritism within the AFC West.
That’s how good the remainder of this Denver roster is. Full of studs, however with out that established sign caller to transform potential into wins.
That is Why The Denver Broncos had an EPIC 2021 NFL Draft | CBS Sports activities HQ
Lock was disappointing at greatest in 2020 after a promising rookie 12 months. Simply 4-9 as a starter regardless of having weapons like Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant and KJ Hamler surrounding him. He did lose Courtland Sutton for a lot of the 12 months although. Bridgewater will push him this offseason.
The backfield ought to be additional improved in 2021 with North Carolina RB Javonte Williams chosen within the second spherical of the draft. He ought to pair with Melvin Gordon to offer the Broncos a robust one-two punch.
On the defensive facet of the ball, one other man who noticed 2020 ruined by damage was former Tremendous Bowl MVP Von Miller. If he’s again to full well being and firing on all cylinders together with Bradley Chubb, this Denver protection might be actually good in 2021.
Satirically, since protection is head coach Fangio’s speciality, it was that facet of the ball that basically let the Broncos down final season. That has to vary in 2021.
Whereas Miller and Chubb ought to present move rush, the again finish of the Denver D additionally had excellent news within the offseason. The Broncos locked up star security Justin Simmons for the long-term, whereas drafting among the finest cornerbacks within the draft in Patrick Surtain II.
Free company introduced additional reinforcements for the secondary in former Washington nook Ronald Darby and former Bear Kyle Fuller.
Abstract: Fangio’s job is probably going on the road in Denver in 2021. With out important enchancment on final season, it’s tough to see him getting one other probability to gel with new GM George Paton.
The choice to move on Ohio State QB Justin Fields (later chosen by Chicago) within the draft will likely be analysed closely. Surtain is admittedly good, however you don’t move on a franchise quarterback.
So possibly Denver actually is purchased into Lock and the idea that 2020 was a blip? Or possibly it actually does consider Rodgers might be prised away from Lambeau.
Both approach, the remainder of the home is constructed. Simply how pleased it’s within the coming months will rely nearly solely on the beginning quarterback. A story as outdated as time…
Odds right at 0830 BST (23/07/21)
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