Could the Kansas City Chiefs have three 1,000-yard receivers in 2021?

It’s a brand new period of the Nationwide Soccer League.

The growth to a 17-game common season will have an effect on all-time information and statistical knowledge. Our John Dixon laid out all those implications on Saturday — primarily stating how more likely it’s for a quarterback to have a 5,000-yard passing season.

With extra passing yards come extra receiving yards, fairly clearly. The Kansas City Chiefs are close to locks to have two gamers surpass 1,000 receiving yards within the common season: Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have earned 1,000 yards every in the identical season three of the final 4 years. In 2019, Hill missed 4 video games because of damage — however he was on a 16-game tempo for 1,093 yards.

In 2020, Hill and Kelce mixed for two,692 yards — or 57% of quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ regular-season passing yards. That left 2,048 yards to be shared among the many remainder of the receiving corps. When you extrapolate Mahomes’ passing yards over 17 video games quite than the 15 video games he performed in 2020, he would complete 5,372 yards. If Kelce and Hill eat up the identical proportion of his yards, that would depart 2,321 yards for the remaining receivers — however it is going to be exhausting to repeat such an unprecedented, important market share of the yards.

That leads me to the large query:

Is there a 3rd pass-catcher that may account for 1,000 of these remaining yards?

It’d be a historic feat: It’s solely occurred 5 occasions in NFL historical past. It hasn’t been finished because the Arizona Cardinals completed it within the 2008 season. The 2019 Los Angeles Chargers have been seven receiving yards by operating again Austin Ekeler away from incomes that accolade, however no different group has gotten as shut.

Realistically, there are solely two candidates that would step up and earn 1,000 of the remaining receiving yards. I examined how probably it’s that both of them makes that leap in 2021:

Mecole Hardman

Picture by Jamie Squire/Getty Pictures

Hardman is the extra probably of the 2 candidates to get 1,000 yards — however it could take an incredible season from each him and the offense. The third-leading receiver on a Chiefs group coached by Andy Reid has by no means topped 700 receiving yards; Sammy Watkins acquired to 673 in 2019 primarily due to Hill lacking time for damage.

Nonetheless, the third-leading receiver has averaged 69 targets within the three seasons with Mahomes because the starter. Over 17 video games, that will increase to 73 targets. Hardman has a profession charge of 10.7 yards per goal — however in his rookie 12 months of 2019, he averaged 13.1 yards each move thrown his approach. If he have been that environment friendly on 73 targets, he’d complete 956 receiving yards.

13.1 yards per goal is an exorbitant charge and can be tough to repeat. That stated, Hardman’s velocity and big-play capacity give him a greater likelihood than most receivers. Plus, he completed that in a rookie season the place he confirmed inconsistencies as a real receiver. If that facet of his recreation improves, there’s an opportunity he might method that degree of effectivity once more based mostly on not having as many targets fall incomplete.

On high of all that, he has the plain benefit of Kelce and Hill taking the vast majority of the protection’s consideration. If Hardman can earn extra targets than the standard third-leading receiver in a Chiefs offense, the large performs he’s able to might push him to the 1,000-yard mark.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

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With all of the hype surrounding the receiving capacity of second-year operating again Clyde Edwards-Helaire, it’s value exploring how probably he’s to have a historic season and high 1,000 receiving yards out of the backfield — even whether it is extremely unlikely.

Solely 5 operating backs in NFL historical past have ever earned over 1,000 receiving yards; the Carolina Panthers’ Christian McCaffery is the one one to take action because the flip of the century. Moreover, solely three backs have ever earned that complete whereas additionally gaining greater than 1,000 dashing yards.

If any coach can function a operating again sufficient to get them to 1,000 yards, it’s Andy Reid. That stated, no again of his has ever topped 800 yards in a single season. In 2004, Philadelphia Eagles operating again Brian Westbrook gained 703 in 13 video games; in a 17-game schedule, that tempo would have gotten him to 919 yards. Since Charles’ massive receiving 12 months in 2013, no Chiefs again has earned greater than 460 yards by the air.

The case for it to occur is the number of methods they will get Edwards-Helaire concerned as a receiver. He’ll line up within the slot, he can go on intermediate routes from the backfield, and there’s at all times the specter of Reid’s display screen performs.

If a second extensive receiver doesn’t set up themselves because the third passing goal, Edwards-Helaire might be much more closely featured as a pass-catcher. With the downfield passing recreation at all times on the thoughts of opposing defenses, the short-to-intermediate areas will probably be susceptible for a dynamic, open-field again comparable to Edwards-Helaire.

Backside line

Will probably be very powerful for a participant behind Hill and Kelce to take up that quantity of the group’s move manufacturing. Traditionally, the Chiefs have unfold the wealth fairly evenly after the 2 star receivers. It’ll take one of many two gamers talked about above to persistently dominate his matchup every week for him to get sufficient alternative.

If considered one of them can develop into that massive of a difference-maker, the Chiefs’ offense is probably going at its peak efficiency of the Mahomes period.