Houston Rockets: Inside long rebuild after Harden trade

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Rockets basic supervisor Rafael Stone reflected on the James Harden trade in a press convention final week, noting it wasn’t honest to guage Houston’s return on its blockbuster deal till at the least 2030. The remark was made largely in jest, adopted by a chuckle from Daryl Morey’s successor. But the joke was revealing as Stone and the Rockets begin what could be an arduous rebuild. After a half-decade of cashing in property in pursuit of a championship, Houston is taking the lengthy street again to competition.

Stone & Co. have come underneath appreciable hearth for his or her offers in current months. Some seen Ben Simmons as a better asset than seven years of choose management from the Nets. Houston didn’t precisely get a significant return for P.J. Tucker. It opted to acquire Victor Oladipo rather than Caris LeVert, and the subsequent trade of Oladipo didn’t internet any promising younger items. The Rockets stood as a fringe Finals contender only one 12 months in the past. They’re something however now, with few items you possibly can think about as future constructing blocks. Because the losses mount, so has the criticism of Stone. However maybe the critics aren’t seeing the larger image at play.

To know the place the Rockets are going, it’s vital to grasp the place they’ve been. Current years have featured a severe push towards the Larry O’Brien trophy, with every transfer geared towards bettering the current roster. Harden has been an All-NBA first-team choice six occasions since 2013–14. He’s logged 5 top-three MVP finishes, and when you ask these in Houston’s entrance workplace, he ought to have at the least 4 MVPs by now. Harden is a franchise player in every sense of the word. With a participant of his caliber, not promoting out for a championship is sort of irresponsible. With 5 50-win seasons since 2013–14, it’s arduous to criticize Houston’s aggressive maneuvering within the Harden period.

However even contemplating Harden’s greatness, there may be one transfer Houston’s mind belief want to have again if given a time machine and a mulligan. The Chris Paul period ended within the spring of 2019, with Harden cryptically noting the change that wanted to be made to ensure that Houston to lastly break via within the Western Convention. An offseason of hypothesis adopted, and in July, a blockbuster was struck. The Rockets dealt Paul to Oklahoma City in exchange for Russell Westbrook, moreover giving the Thunder first-round picks in 2024 and 2026 and choose swaps in 2021 and 2025. The commerce now serves as a demarcation level in Houston’s slide out of competition.

Swapping Paul for Westbrook isn’t an indefensible transfer in a vacuum. Paul appeared to have critically misplaced a step within the final 12 months of his Rockets tenure, and taking pictures effectivity be damned, Westbrook logged a very dominant three-month stretch in Houston earlier than the COVID-19 disaster started. However the further picks and swaps despatched to Oklahoma Metropolis may show debilitating to the Rockets’ roster-building within the coming years. Dealing with a choose deficit, buying draft capital for Harden in January grew to become probably the most prudent transfer.

It’s unlikely any of Brooklyn’s future picks (unprotected firsts in 2022, 2024 and 2026, plus swaps in 2021, 2023, 2025 and 2027) leads to drafting a participant of Simmons’s caliber, although would buying Philadelphia’s level guard actually function an efficient reset button for the Rockets? It is a roster greater than a single piece away from competition, and pairing Simmons’s max contract with John Wall’s would have considerably dampened Houston’s monetary flexibility within the coming years. Trotting out Simmons with this roster would doubtless end in a fringe play-in staff, touchdown the Rockets firmly in NBA purgatory. It is probably not the prettiest product in the intervening time, however Houston can now at the least backside out, shoot for some lottery luck and transfer ahead with a reasonably clear cap sheet and a treasure chest of picks.

Stone additionally famous the flexibleness supplied by Brooklyn’s bundle apart from wage cap issues. Houston can now dangle the Nets’ picks in commerce negotiations all through the 2020s, with the picks and swaps in 2024–27 doubtlessly holding important worth. The scenario isn’t precisely akin to Brooklyn’s disastrous deal with the Celtics given the age of Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. However there’s no assure the Nets’ core remains to be intact within the latter phases of the 2020s. The Rockets used a pair of first-round picks together with Jeremy Lamb and Kevin Martin to amass Harden practically a decade in the past. When the subsequent star is on the commerce market, Houston’s choose capital may turn out to be useful.

“I undoubtedly consider [the draft picks] as commerce property, too,” Stone stated in final week’s press convention. “They’re the one factor which can be commoditized within the NBA. Everyone values first-round picks, and the higher the picks are, the upper the worth.”

The Rockets drew largely blended opinions for his or her choice to decide on Brooklyn’s mountain of picks over a possible Simmons bundle. Their different two marquee offers have been met with larger criticism. However Stone & Co. are comfy with their returns for each Tucker and Oladipo. Houston will doubtless transfer up a handful of spots within the 2021 draft because of the Tucker commerce, and the first-round choose they personal from Milwaukee will now convey in 2023 moderately than 2022. As for the Oladipo commerce, the Rockets are actually able to retain Kelly Olynyk as a frontcourt piece in free company, and so they may additionally swap their Brooklyn choose with the Warmth in 2022. Now that’s not precisely the kind of blue-chip piece Houston hoped to amass for Oladipo, however they nonetheless obtained some modicum of worth nonetheless.

Maybe Stone made a miscalculation in selecting Oladipo over LeVert. Perhaps he ought to have been extra proactive to find a house for Tucker. However these strikes aren’t what’s going to form the franchise’s subsequent decade. Houston’s future will largely be dictated by what comes of Brooklyn’s picks, and extra importantly, the outcomes of the 2021 lottery.

Land in prime 4, and Houston can add a blue-chip prospect alongside Christian Wooden and Kevin Porter Jr. Miss out on the highest 4, and the choose goes to Oklahoma Metropolis. Such a scenario could be a relative catastrophe. Proprietor Tilman Fertitta has proven resistance to the concept of a full-blown tank, and even with the suitable free-agency selections, this isn’t greater than a fringe playoff staff at finest. The Rockets waded via the NBA wilderness for years previous to the Harden commerce, with no discernible path again to competition. Stone is now betting on a bevy of draft picks to keep away from that very same destiny.

What to Do About James Harden’s MVP Candidacy?

Erick W. Rasco/Sports activities Illustrated

Talking of Harden, there’s been rising chatter relating to his MVP case in current weeks, and rightfully so. Brooklyn’s new main man has been downright dominant since becoming a member of the Nets in mid-January, main the Nets to the East’s second-best file regardless of Kevin Durant’s extended absence. Harden is averaging 26 factors and 11.2 assists per sport in a Brooklyn uniform. He’s closing in on the highest 10 in PER, and he already sits No. 6 in win shares. Harden has arguably been the very best participant in basketball since becoming a member of Brooklyn, and if the Nets seize the East’s prime seed, he’ll have a official case because the MVP.

But regardless of Harden’s brilliance, it nonetheless feels a bit, effectively, unseemly to present him the 2020–21 MVP. Celebrity commerce calls for are nothing new, although Harden’s exit from Houston was notably unseemly. Harden skipped coaching camp and flouted COVID-19 protocols as he jet-set across the nation, and he rapidly undermined first-year head coach Stephen Silas upon arriving in Houston. These actions shouldn’t essentially be held as a cudgel towards Harden’s profession legacy. He stays one of many biggest scorers in league historical past, and he may very effectively win Finals MVP this summer season. However as for the regular-season race, Harden’s eight shameful video games in Houston must be considered. We must always look to gamers who logged a full season (hello, Nikola Joki ć) when making our choose for MVP.