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The good fascination for the Bears and their followers with buying and selling as much as draft Trey Lance, Justin Fields or Mac Jones is comprehensible.
They’re dynamic school quarterbacks and athletes.
Those that love this stategy even have to understand doing it means a nasty Bears season in 2021.
In reality, if that occurs it may result in a nasty 2022 as nicely as a result of there may very well be firings and a home cleansing. Inevitably, home cleanings result in shedding the primary season of the brand new regime whereas the whole lot will get put into place.
So a rookie quarterback drafted in Spherical 1 almost definitely wouldn’t result in a profitable Bears crew till 2023 on the earliest.
That is all primarily based on the truth that first-round rookie quarterbaks hardly ever do a lot optimistic. Within the case of this Bears crew, the commerce up would imply sacrificing picks they should plug roster holes. So it will be expensive.
Within the final 5 drafts, there have been 18 quarterbacks taken in Spherical 1 and three led their crew to profitable information in video games they began. One was Lamar Jackson, who was 6-1. Tua Tagovailoa final 12 months was 6-3. Patrick Mahomes was 1-0.
Solely Deshaun Watson (3-3) and Paxton Lynch (1-1) led their groups to .500 information. The opposite 12 who began posted shedding information and a mixed beginning report of 45 wins to 96 defeats.
Naturally, first-round quarterbacks have gone largely to unhealthy groups and their win-loss report in addition to passing statistics will not be helped by taking part in with poor groups.
It is not at all times the case, although. Seven of the 18 went to groups with profitable or .500 information within the earlier season.
The 18 first-round quarterbacks put up a median passer ranking of 87.66 as rookies however solely 5 of the 17 who began went over that mark and 11 of the 12 who did not go over it posted passer rankings within the 70s, which is Rex Grossman-bad.
The 87.66 mark is inflated by the superb effort of Justin Herbert final season (98.3) with 15 begins. Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Joe Burrow all went over that 87.66 ranking and did it with sufficient passing makes an attempt to inflate the quantity.
By and huge, seasons like Mitchell Trubisky posted with a 77.5 passer ranking are the norm.
Then you’ve got the Joshes.
In 2018 Josh Allen had a 67.9 passer ranking and Josh Rosen 66.7. They’ve since gone down barely completely different paths.
The tell-tale stat for rookie passer distress is yards per move try, a key stat which normally displays a very good degree of competence.
Solely Herbert (7.3), Baker Mayfield (7.7), Jackson (7.1), Mahomes (8.1) and Watson (8.3) managed to get within the 7s or increased. These are good numbers.
The remaining all had within the 6s, which is mediocre to unhealthy. Then there was 5.3 for Jared Goff and 5.8 for Rosen. These figures are completely embarrassing.
So if the Bears commerce up for that first-round quarterback, anticipate he: 1) will not play a lot as a result of Andy Dalton is the starter, 2) if the QB does play he’ll be mediocre to unhealthy after which the probabilities exist your complete group is turned over for a restart and extra years of distress.
A crew must be sure a participant is particular to take gamble and transfer up for them, after which use them as a rookie starter.
Both that, or they have to be solely determined.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
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