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No award in skilled sports activities generates the extent of debate that the NBA’s Most Helpful Participant Award does.
And no participant in latest reminiscence has persistently pressured voters to rethink what the “most beneficial” facet of MVP means like James Harden has over the previous six seasons.
His enjoying model has alienated some. His life-style has made him a goal of scrutiny over the previous yr.
However his manufacturing has him within the combine for his second MVP award. So can he truly win this factor or will he turn into a four-time runner up?
We tapped two of our NBA analysts to make the case for and in opposition to Harden for MVP.
The Case for James Harden
Raheem Palmer: You’d be onerous pressed to search out too many NBA gamers who’ve put collectively the run James Harden has over the previous eight seasons.
Since being traded from Oklahoma Metropolis to Houston earlier than the 2012-13 season, Harden has averaged 29.4 factors, 7.9 assists and 6.2 rebounds, was named to the All-NBA Staff seven instances (six first group choices), made the All-Star recreation eight instances and has completed top-three in voting for league MVP 5 instances, profitable the award in 2018.
Outdoors of LeBron James — arguably the best basketball participant ever — Harden has exhibited the most effective mix of scoring and playmaking we’ve seen within the trendy period of the NBA.
His floor-raising means is famous. He turned the Houston Rockets right into a official championship contender, main them to 50 wins in 5 of the previous eight seasons.
He reached the Western Convention Finals twice and pushed the seemingly unbeatable Warriors to the brink earlier than bowing out in seven video games (a sequence during which Chris Paul missed the ultimate two video games as a consequence of damage).
Harden is basically this technology’s model of Wilt Chamberlain: a score-first participant with video-game numbers who’s hooked on partying and wasn’t universally seen as a winner for many of his profession (till he gained). Harden has his greatest shot at shedding the latter characterization since 2012.
Regardless of enjoying alongside Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, this season hasn’t been any completely different for Harden as he as soon as once more finds himself on the prime of the MVP race with oddsmakers itemizing him as little as +550 to win the award behind Joel Embiid (+500) and Nikola Jokic (-145).
Outdoors of his latest hamstring pressure, which can be re-evaluated in 10 days, Harden has been one of the vital sturdy NBA stars, hardly ever lacking time regardless of shouldering each the scoring and playmaking load for many of his profession, particularly this season the place we anticipated his particular person play to take a step again given the top-end expertise on this roster.
Though it’s actually affordable to disqualify a participant from profitable MVP on a group with Durant and Irving, Durant missed 23 video games with a proper hamstring pressure and Irving has missed time as a consequence of accidents and private issues. In the meantime, Harden was thrust again into the identical high-usage function he performed in Houston. The Nets by no means skipped a beat amassing a 27-7 file in his 34 video games of motion.
I’ve hassle believing he’s not essentially the most worthy candidate for the award contemplating his spectacular numbers — 25.2 factors, 8.0 rebounds and a league-leading 10.9 assists per recreation — are the most important motive the Nets are tied for the highest seed within the Jap Convention playoff image.
Even throughout a season with a truncated schedule, the NBA season is lengthy sufficient that we frequently overlook what occurred earlier on within the season and thus recency bias can play an enormous function in who wins these awards.
When the Nets acquired James Harden in January, they had been simply 7-6 on the season and had been fourth in Offensive Ranking (114.1). Since buying Harden, the Nets are scoring 118.3 points per 100 possessions regardless of Durant enjoying in simply 10 video games throughout this time interval. Their Offensive Ranking is 121.2 when Harden is on the ground, and so they’re +4.7 factors per 100 possessions offensively with him on the court docket vs off.
Harden is within the 93% percentile in Factors Per Shot Try, producing 123.7 factors per 100 possessions, however he’s additionally within the 95% percentile in Assist percentage. Thats’s one thing that neither LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic nor Damian Lillard can say. Whereas lots of his superior stats comparable to PER, BPM and VORP are down as a consequence of a decreased utilization fee, Harden remains to be fifth in Offensive Actual Plus Minus (6.06) and sixth in RPM wins (7.74).
For an award that has traditionally positioned a premium on group success, it looks like many are going to interrupt that precedent by taking a look at everybody however Harden primarily based on his ugly departure from the Houston Rockets.
Regardless of exhibiting up late for coaching camp, Harden nonetheless had a celebrity stage affect on a foul Rockets group that might go on to ultimately lose 20 consecutive video games with out him.
I’m not notably an enormous fan of a participant getting an award as a result of his teammates stink (ie: LeBron and the Lakers), however primarily based on how the Rockets have carried out with out Harden, that actually has advantage right here. The metrics nonetheless present he had a star-level affect regardless of the narrative that he give up on the group.
The Rockets had been +5.2 factors per 100 possessions higher offensively with Harden on ground this season, and as a group rating twenty seventh in Offensive Ranking proper now, you may think about they’d like to have these 5.2 factors again. Harden averaged 24.8 factors, 10.4 assists and 5.1 rebounds on 44.4% taking pictures with Houston, which is almost an identical to what he’s averaging since being traded to the Nets.
In some unspecified time in the future we’ve to be sincere about how poorly the Rockets have been run since Tilman Feritta took over. Given the trades they’ve made since shifting Harden, it’s fairly clear this group isn’t trying to win or go above the wage ground subsequent season.
If we’re giving different MVP candidates leeway with regard to coming into the season off form, not profitable as a consequence of accidents to teammates and whining and complaining for each foul name, we can provide a celebrity in his prime some slack for not eager to play for a tanking franchise.
The Case Towards James Harden
Matt Moore: Look, it’s superior that when once more James Harden has put up common season numbers for a top-two seed, even when it’s the East. It’s nice that he’s held a group up together with his heliocentric model, appearing as each engine and tip of the spear. Nobody is debating that Harden is an unimaginable participant.
Nevertheless, for him to be most beneficial, we’ve to contemplate your complete season.
Let’s begin right here: I don’t suppose that the autumn of the Houston Rockets is James Harden’s fault. It doesn’t take a soothsayer to learn between the strains and decipher how occasions unfolded.
Tilman Fertitta took over the franchise, and instantly started making noise about how a lot his two stars — Russell Westbrook and James Harden — made in wage. Negotiations with Mike D’Antoni a couple of contract extension shortly reached an deadlock; D’Antoni ultimately left after his deal expired.
Chris Paul, Mike D’Antoni, Russell Westbrook, James Harden. Fertitta’s priorities haven’t been delicate, particularly because the pandemic began impacting each his basketball and outside-league revenue. It’s fairly clear that Fertitta deserves the onus for the autumn of one of the vital secure and profitable organizations in sports activities.
However Harden didn’t do something to sluggish the autumn. His incapability to deal with battle partly led to the departure of Chris Paul and the acquisition of Russell Westbrook. Westbrook cited cultural issues with Houston. So far as the locker room goes, Harden was the tradition.
Then got here the primary spherical exit when, in response to sources, Harden determined the Rockets had been heading within the improper route. He partied in the course of the rise of the third wave of the pandemic and flaunted it as he was routinely seen on social media.
These are decisions Harden will get to make, the identical approach each individual can. Harden’s determination to not sit at dwelling, socially distanced, whereas studying a novel has no bearing on his MVP standing.
However the penalties of these actions — much less time in coaching camp, extra time in quarantine — whereas his teammates labored to include new schemes below a brand new coach and new teammates, harm Houston.
Harden got here in off form. My colleague will stress that in any case that, he nonetheless got here in and dropped 44 factors and 17 assists in his first recreation again, and that’s superior, the sort of unimaginable efficiency we’ve come to know Harden for.
Nevertheless, in Houston, he performed eight video games. He scored his lowest per-game common since he left OKC, together with his lowest efficient area aim share since 2017 when his utilization fee was out of this world. He shot 44% from the sector and grabbed his fewest rebounds since he left OKC.
These video games all matter. The video games he missed getting again in form matter. The video games he missed sitting out ready for Houston to commerce him matter.
And with all that, Harden is averaging the fewest factors of the six prime MVP candidates (Harden, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Damian Lillard, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo). He additionally has the bottom eFG% of that group. He’s averaging the second lowest 3-point share, the bottom PER, the second-lowest VORP and the second lowest Field Plus-Minus.
Harden isn’t an actual contender for the MVP, nevertheless it’s not due to some moralist campaign. It’s as a result of Harden’s actions had tangible impacts on the efficiency of his previous group, and his on-court manufacturing in each these video games and since in Brooklyn merely don’t match up with the opposite contenders.
James has missed video games as a consequence of damage. Embiid missed time as a consequence of contact tracing and damage. Jokic hasn’t missed any video games.
Rewarding Harden would imply that every one off-court conduct is irrelevant, after we know that chemistry, dedication and depth go a good distance in direction of group success within the common season.
He’s not a viable candidate.
What MVP Voters Are Saying
There are voters with MVP ballots who will ignore virtually all the things that’s circuitously on-court efficiency. Nevertheless, most will take into account all variables.
I polled twelve seemingly voters for MVP with the straightforward query of whether or not what occurred in Houston will affect their vote. 9 voters stated that it will.
Responses ranged by way of how a lot, however the consensus was that Harden was completely within the working and that the occasions in Houston would completely be an element of their vote.
Notably, these voters who stated it will affect their vote stated it wasn’t any type of moralist campaign, however as a substitute about how successfully scuttling the Rockets earlier than becoming a member of Houston impacts Harden’s “worth.”
“Successfully quitting on a group midseason appears to contradict the V half in MVP,” one voter stated.
Most stated that if the race was shut, Harden’s actions early within the season would successfully imply he loses the tiebreaker.
If we have a look at the broader voter base, his prospects are dim.
Would a so-called LeBron voter be swayed to vote for Harden contemplating what occurred in Houston, with the best way James has carried himself the previous two seasons in LA?
Lastly, there’s one other compelling argument in opposition to Harden, and he’s returning to the ground Wednesday evening: Kevin Durant.
Harden will miss a while with a hamstring damage, and even when he had been nonetheless enjoying, it will be obvious from tipoff that Durant is the most effective participant on the Nets. Successful MVP while you’re not the most effective participant on the group is almost unattainable; there isn’t a transparent instance of it in league historical past.
Harden’s odds have risen not too long ago, however all that actually presents is a buy-low alternative for gamers like Embiid (who was the favourite earlier than his damage) and LeBron. Harden can’t be thought of a price wager for MVP.
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