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The red-clay street to Roland Garros was closed to all site visitors as a result of COVID-19 pandemic final 12 months. Paths to glory in locations like Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Stuttgart and Budapest went untrodden. Even the French Open was postponed. Nary a pair of white socks emerged from the resort dryer in Paris in Could, defiantly suffused with a purple tint.
It will likely be totally different this 12 months. Precisely how totally different, we don’t actually know, as a result of the pandemic has run an unpredictable course that retains well being officers in most locations on excessive alert. However let’s take a look at among the juicer questions looming because the European clay stretch gets underway.
1. Have all the acquainted tournaments survived?
Tournaments that don’t have the cushion of a major broadcast deal—primarily, bottom-tier ATP and WTA 250 occasions—have suffered. Half-a-dozen occasions have been canceled or postponed, however the same quantity has been shortly sanctioned and added. Essentially the most painful loss: the Marrakech occasion, which was an ATP staple for some 30 years.
The WTA’s latest embrace of the ATP’s three-tier match system, through which tournaments are recognized by the variety of rankings factors awarded to the winner (250, 500, 1000), will assist make clear the importance of the 9 WTA occasions on the slate. (Ten, together with this week’s green-clay Volvo Automotive Open in Charleston.) The ATP has ten tournaments on faucet.
2. Will there be some semblance of normalcy on the tournaments?
Effectively, the “new” normalcy, anyway.
Protocols regulating gamers and followers haven’t totally been spelled out, and they are going to be topic to vary proper as much as the beginning of play on an event-by-event foundation. Gamers will doubtless must reside with “bubble” or semi-bubble laws, limiting their freedom of motion. Their hope to play for spectators is hanging within the steadiness.
Monte Carlo has already determined towards permitting followers. Barcelona has posted a fingers-crossed “wait record” for tickets. Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros are aggressively planning to usher in followers.
Nadal followers have a good time on the Caja Mágica in Madrid. (Getty Photographs)
“The Mutua Madrid Open will permit followers to enter the Caja Mágica,” communications supervisor Rafael Plaza wrote in an electronic mail. “As a result of the state of affairs is altering loads virtually day by day, proper now it’s inconceivable to present an actual quantity. The situations can be studied periodically along with the well being authorities till the start of the match.”
Amelie Oudea-Castera, the French Tennis Federation’s (FFT) new chief, has advised press that Roland Garros hopes to host the “highest attainable variety of spectators” and is modeling totally different attendance situations.
3. How will the restrictions on attendance have an effect on prize cash?
The gamers proceed to take an enormous prize-money hit. The Monte Carlo ATP pot is down by roughly 60 %, to $2.4 million. The winner will take dwelling $300,000, an $800,000 distinction than what the 2019 champion gained. Decrease-ranked gamers in Monaco will take in much less of a blow, percentage-wise. First-round losers will financial institution $14,338, a 37 % drop from final 12 months’s determine of $21,313.
Most of the different occasions have but to announce prize-money figures. Among the many 250s, this 12 months’s purse in Estoril is $481,270—over a 50 % drop from 2019. On the WTA aspect, the prize cash in 2019 in Stuttgart was $888,007. This 12 months, it’s $565,530.
4. Will Rafael Nadal dominate—once more?
In previous years, the “King of Clay” has usually run the desk whereas on European filth. Not so in 2019. Nadal didn’t play a remaining till he gained Rome, as a prelude to the French Open. This 12 months, he has been hampered by a again damage, and lately advised Brazilian journal Veja:
“Up to now few years, I’ve been experiencing ache extra usually and you should be taught to reside with it, so long as it doesn’t cease you from enjoying. I needed to change loads in my recreation and in my coaching. I modified routines, educated much less hours than I would love, improved my serve and my positioning.”
Anticipate Nadal to peak bodily and mentally for Roland Garros. (Getty Photographs)
It’s unlikely that Nadal can reprise the times when he completely dominated his friends within the spring. Nevertheless it’s additionally unlikely that the banged-up 34-year outdated is bent on doing that. At this stage, Nadal will do no matter he must be in optimum form for Roland Garros.
“Rafa at all times tuned up with 4 occasions: Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome,” elite coach and ESPN analyst Brad Gilbert advised me. “He didn’t play as properly in these in 2019 however then he nonetheless went and gained the French. It goes to indicate, till somebody beats Rafa at Roland Garros he’s nonetheless the very best.”
5. Will Naomi Osaka be efficient on clay?
Osaka left the Miami Open, the place Maria Sakkari halted her 23-match, hard-court win streak, feeling upbeat in regards to the coming clay phase, regardless that her greatest consequence on the floor as a professional was a semifinal in Stuttgart two years in the past.
“Positively I might like to win a match on clay,” mentioned Osaka. “I feel for me, I will be taught loads from Wim [Fissette, Osaka’s coach since the start of the 2020 season]. He is very energetic and excited to maneuver on to the brand new surfaces.
Fissette and fellow coach Yutaka Nakamura each perceive what it takes to win on clay. Fissette has coached 4 No. 1 gamers, together with clay skilled Simona Halep, whereas Nakamura has beforehand labored the kinks out of the muscle tissues of Kei Nishikori and Maria Sharapova.
Osaka is worked up to check her recreation on the clay this season. (Getty Photographs)
Take notice: If latest WTA historical past has taught us something, it’s that have isn’t all it’s cracked as much as be. Ash Barty, the 24-year-old French Open champion from 2019, has gained only one different clay occasion—a 25K sub-tour occasion means again in 2012. And defending champion Iga Swiatek, simply 19, hasn’t gained on tour-level on clay both. The very best-ranked participant Swiatek defeated in 5 different lower-level occasions was ranked No. 203.
6. Which of the occasions main as much as Roland Garros is most vital?
This can be a advanced query. The Monte Carlo Masters 1000 (ATP solely) encourages the lads to hit the bottom working. However whereas it provides the highest complete of sub-Slam ranking-points, it’s also for acclimatizing to the purple clay and European situations after a strenuous hard-court phase.
The Madrid mixed 1000-level match can also be a selection prize, however due to the altitude the balls fly with extra zip than on the different occasions, it favors extra aggressive gamers. It isn’t as related to the last word prize, the French Open.
The clay on the Italian Open has a golden tint. It’s totally different from the rust-colored clay courts in Paris and normally performs a bit quicker—thanks in massive measure to the typically sunnier, drier local weather in Rome. However with per week off between Rome and Roland Garros, it stays probably the most important tune-up match.
7. Who within the ATP has probably the most to realize?
High-ranked Novak Djokoic can slender the Slam title hole that separates him from Nadal and Roger Federer to at least one (Djokovic has 18), organising a career-closing race to say GOAT standing. And Serena Williams may equal the all-time Grand Slam singles title report held by Margaret Court docket (24), however the extent of her participation on the purple clay is unsure.
Issues look murky round two-time French Open runner-up Dominic Thiem. The 2020 US Open champion had a tough begin this 12 months, exacerbated by a foot damage (his father claims it is not going to impair him on clay). But Thiem opted out of Monte Carlo, then entered Belgrade, a 250 that may happen throughout the identical week because the Barcelona ATP 500.
Thiem ranks second solely to Nadal on clay, which makes his scheduling selections that rather more mystifying.
“I am having robust weeks forward of me,” he lately mentioned. “I’ve numerous work to do.”
And about these acquainted, profitable Subsequent Gen graduates: Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Denis Shapovalov want to look at it or they is perhaps pushed out of the best way by quickly creating contemporaries—and even youthful, rising stars. These embody Andrey Rublev, Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti, Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Korda.
8. Will the WTA “regular suspects” re-assert themselves after 2020’s disruption?
“Final 12 months, I mentioned there have been 20 girls who may win the French Open, and (the champion) Iga Swiatek wasn’t even one in every of them,” Gilbert mentioned. “We have now simply as many professional contenders lately at each WTA occasion, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the development of a distinct participant successful each week continues on the clay.”
That could possibly be disturbing information for acquainted names, together with Karolina Pliskova, Elina Svitolina, Simona Halep, Sloane Stephens, Petra Kvitova and Victoria Azarenka. Halep is the gold commonplace amongst WTA clay-courters. She has 9 tour-level titles on clay, together with the 2018 French Open. However she’s approaching 30 and has struggled with again and shoulder issues already this 12 months.
It’s straightforward to miss No. 4 Sofia Kenin in gentle of her tepid 7-5 begin this 12 months, due partly to latest appendix surgical procedure. However she is the defending Roland Garros runner-up, and the clay is a playing-field leveler for gamers like Kenin, who makes up for what she lacks in dimension and energy with strategic savvy, endurance and nice psychological energy.
9. What can we anticipate of American gamers?
Sebastian Korda, simply 20, performed seven matches (together with qualifying) in his breakthrough at Roland Garros final fall. He’s since backed that up, rising to No. 87 after beginning 2020 ranked No. 242. Extremely, he will get the nod as the highest U.S. hope.
John Isner remains to be the most experienced and successful American man on clay, however the extent of his participation is unsure. Taylor Fritz, who has changed Isner because the top-ranked American (at No. 30) has come agonizingly near a breakthrough and retains working onerous at it. His stablemate Tommy Paul is a former French Open junior champion who has been on the upswing.
Clay is perhaps hard-hitting Tommy Paul’s greatest floor. (Getty Photographs)
Kenin and 2019 semifinalist Amanda Anisimova, who remains to be simply 19, are the highest WTA hopes from the U.S., however Jennifer Brady and Jessica Pegula have taken nice strides on onerous courts, and will problem the established order. Coco Gauff, No. 36, retains enhancing, however clay in the pros still remains a mystery to the 17-year outdated former Roland Garros junior champion.
The perfect-case state of affairs for Serena followers is that she decides to play the French Open, and enters Rome to get her recreation tuned.
10. Apart from pandemic and draw-related points, are there any important unknowns heading for Europe?
The largest unknown is at all times the climate, which may have an outsized affect on who performs properly. The drier and sunnier the situations, the extra they assist execs who hit an enormous ball and/or play aggressively, on or contained in the baseline.
That quantity consists of jack-of-all-trades Djokovic, together with many in that logjam of comparatively younger expertise—Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Rublev and others. On the WTA aspect, the primary beneficiaries of quicker courts can be, amongst others, Osaka, Bianca Andreescu, Aryna Sabalenka, Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova.
Cool, damp climate will profit gamers who’re match and blessed with rock-solid groundstrokes along with endurance. Nadal will surely profit, however moist, cool situations assist all constant, defense-minded baseliners.
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