Form Analysis: Is Real Madrid a Good Draw?

Real Madrid have the kind of pedigree on this competitors that normally makes them one to keep away from, however is that true this season? Let’s check out how they received right here, how they’re doing in Spain, and whether or not their assault continues to be one thing to concern:

Actual Madrid’s Path to the Quarter Finals

You’d be forgiven when you had forgotten the turmoil Actual Madrid discovered themselves on the outset of this season’s Champion’s League group stage, however for some time it seemed as if the membership, reportedly in monetary misery, would possibly fail to progress from the group stage for the primary ever time within the (rebranded) competitors’s historical past.

The large membership’s group didn’t initially appear like a “group of loss of life,” to convey out the outdated cliché: Actual Madrid have been in Group B with Borussia Monchengladbach, Shakhtar Donetsk and Internazionale.

It turned out to be difficult, although, as Los Blancos fell to a house defeat to Shakhtar earlier than drawing away at Gladbach on the opening two matchdays earlier than profitable in two consecutive video games in opposition to Inter — however then the giants misplaced once more to Shaktar, which means that Group B got here all the way down to the ultimate day. Actual went via on the prime of the group with a win in opposition to Gladbach ultimately, however that it was so shut despatched shockwaves via the membership.

Their development via the final spherical was fairly a bit simpler, as Zinedine Zidane’s males beat the few final seasons’ hipster facet Atalanta dwelling and away to progress 4-1 on combination.

Although final season was one thing of a disappointment by their requirements, as Actual Madrid exited the Champions League within the Spherical of 16 in 2019/20, their expertise shouldn’t be underestimated: Los Blancos have reached at the very least the semifinals within the earlier eight consecutive tournaments, and gained the competitors half of those, racking up 4 European Cups within the final decade. They’ve essentially the most European Cup wins of any membership (13), and 7 of those wins got here after the event rebrand in 1992.

All of us bear in mind the final time they gained it.

Photograph by Etsuo Hara/Getty Pictures

Home Type

Actual Madrid gained La Liga in 2019/20, securing the title with one recreation to go after the league returned after COVID-related delays. The membership recorded 26 wins and secured a complete of 87 factors after ending the earlier two seasons in third behind Barcelona and Atlético Madrid.

Taking a look at their information lately it could be straightforward to say from afar that Zidane’s facet is returning to their place of energy final held within the mid-2010s, as they final gained the league within the 2016/17 season, but it surely’s unclear how a lot of that is all the way down to Actual Madrid’s higher kind and the way a lot is because of different groups’ performances in La Liga — and their present league place isn’t precisely a “return to energy.”

Actual Madrid presently sit in third place in La Liga behind league leaders Atlético Madrid and second-placed Barcelona, although their latest kind throughout the league is nothing to scoff at (significantly given, you understand, Liverpool’s personal home kind): Los Blancos final misplaced in La Liga on 30 January (dropping 2-1 away to Levante), going seven video games unbeaten (drawing two and profitable 5). They’ve misplaced simply twice in La Liga since November, although nearly all of their video games have been shut.

They’ve misplaced out within the home cups, nonetheless, which is uncommon. They misplaced to rivals Atlético within the semi-finals of the Spanish Tremendous Cup — maybe not an “upset” so to talk — however have been eradicated from the Copa Del Rey by third-tier Alcoyano — positively a shock.

Digging Deeper into Actual Madrid’s Type

So, how good are they?

Nicely, they’ve been scoring fewer and fewer targets per match over the previous few seasons, dipping from a fairly sturdy 2.3 targets per match in 2017/18 to the present price of 1.7 per match — with the current season being the primary time they’ve failed to attain greater than 1.9 targets per match throughout this era. Over the previous three seasons they’ve created the identical variety of possibilities per match (7), suggesting that their creativity has been retained even when they fail to complete (certainly, their probability conversion price has dipped to 24% this season off of a interval excessive of 28% final season).

This season, they take 15 pictures per match with an xG per shot of 0.13 — a price on the low finish of fine. That is essential to know as a result of the quantity of pictures and their price of conversion doesn’t imply as a lot if a crew is peppering the opposition with numerous low-value possibilities. They’re not doing that, even when they’ve room to enhance when it comes to probability high quality (Liverpool take a median of 14 pictures per recreation with an xG per shot worth of 0.14, so ever-so-slightly higher; image in your head all of the clear-cut possibilities we’ve missed this season paired with the seeming incapacity to create in some matches, and right here we’re).

Los Blancos have misplaced a few of their marquee attacking expertise in latest instances, most notably with Cristiano Ronaldo’s switch to Juventus in 2018/19. Different large title gamers struggled to make an impression on the primary crew, with Gareth Bale and James Rodríguez each leaving the membership this previous summer season with no nice disappointment amongst Actual Madrid followers.

The assault has not been bolstered with new additions to the extent followers would have preferred, with the promise of Eden Hazard, who arrived from Chelsea in 2019/20, struggling in each kind and in harm: he has missed extra days via harm in his two years at Actual Madrid (362, three days off a full yr) than he did over seven seasons at Chelsea (198).

Actual Madrid’s strongest performers have been in protection, with Sergio Ramos (on restricted minutes this season), Lucas Vazquez, and Casemeiro being their most standout performers over the season to date when it comes to high quality; centreback Raphael has performed essentially the most minutes this season (3,274, practically 1,000 greater than Ferland Mendy in second), and his performances have been generally uneven: he has been susceptible to error, and his poor performances are likely to line up with the squad’s poor outcomes.

Karim Benzema is the membership’s prime scorer, with 21 targets in all competitions (xG of 19). Whereas this objective haul appears nice, nobody else within the squad has a double-digit objective tally: second-place is Casemeiro on six targets, adopted by three gamers (Luka Modric, Vinicius Junior, and Sergio Ramos) on 4 targets every.

Mohamed Salah is on 25 targets for Liverpool, however he’s joined by Sadio Mané (13) and Diogo Jota (10) in double-digits, and the latter has (I don’t know when you knew this?) missed fairly a while with harm. Roberto Firmino is on seven targets, larger than Actual Madrid’s second-highest scorer, however recipient of complaints about his manufacturing on Merseyside (deserved; his xG is 14).

Photograph by David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Pictures

What Does This Imply?

All that is to say that the underlying attacking metrics put Liverpool and Actual Madrid comparatively shut, and each groups have suffered a notable dip (although Actual Madrid’s is extra gradual, whereas Liverpool’s is confined to this season solely). We will take solace in the truth that our dip is probably extra explainable as short-term — the accidents, sure, the accidents.

It’s additionally essential that we’re not over-reliant on one participant, because the targets have been unfold out via the Liverpool squad, and the attacking manufacturing has dipped furthest in alignment with essentially the most disruption in protection and midfield. It’s fairly attainable {that a} settled protection and midfield would possibly assist Liverpool regain the consistency and hazard in assault, even when the protection is not so good as their first alternative again 5 could be.

Liverpool ought to be very a lot up for the “Mo Salah’s Shoulder Revenge Match,” and the numbers do delightfully counsel {that a} much-depleted Liverpool are nearer to a fair match to this iteration of Actual Madrid than one may need thought, however loads is dependent upon the Reds discovering their kind — and the angle that enables them to beat the obstacles of their path.

It’s not the very best draw for the Reds, but it surely’s a far cry from being the worst.

Statistics on this article through InStat.