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Jones Is aware of is again within the prediction chair to offer predictions and betting insights on an intriguing Premier League weekend that features the North London derby.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa, Friday 8pm
Newcastle are actually just Evens to be relegated – that is a 50/50 likelihood. I doubt the Toon followers are stunned at this growth. They’ve gained two of final 16 Premier League video games (dropping 10), taking simply 10 factors from 48 obtainable.
Issues are going to get quite a bit worse earlier than they get higher with their three most important attacking gamers nonetheless dominated out via harm. It is very troublesome to see how Newcastle are going to attain the targets to choose up factors with Callum Wilson, Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron lacking.
Steve Bruce despatched his workforce out with a needs-must efficiency at West Brom to safe a snug 0-0 draw however the toothless nature of their assaults, which equated to only a 0.47 anticipated aim determine, was a worrying sight. They now face a workforce with far higher defensive credentials. Villa have statistically the third-best defence within the league, conceding simply 27 targets and retaining 14 clear sheets – that is twice as many as final season.
A Villa win to nil at 9/4 certainly makes appeal. Villa’s final win at Newcastle was 3-0 in April 2005 – a sport by which Newcastle had three gamers sent-off, together with the notorious struggle between Lee Bowyer and Kieron Dyer.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2
BETTING ANGLE: Aston Villa to win to nil (9/4 with Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
I’m all the time cautious of Leeds in opposition to the large boys.
Marcelo Bielsa’s workforce haven’t crushed a ‘huge six’ opponent in seven Premier League conferences this season (D2, L5) – scoring 9 and conceding 21 (conceded 16 in final 4 video games). Leeds have additionally confronted a median of 16.3 pictures per Premier League sport vs the perimeters at the moment within the high 10 this season (245 in 15 video games). An away win must be on playing cards. Chelsea are unbeaten in 11 video games underneath Thomas Tuchel in all competitions, profitable eight, conceding simply two targets.
Tuchel has proved to be a difficult man to second-guess relating to workforce choice, in order that makes tipping up a variety in a player-focused market troublesome, but, Mason Mount is somebody I need to again within the pictures marketplace for this fixture.
Since Tuchel took cost, Mount is averaging 2.9 pictures per 90 minutes in a way more superior position that sees him assist the central striker. It is a median which places him in and round gamers like Kevin De Bruyne, Mohamed Salah and James Maddison when it comes to getting pictures away.
Twenty-one gamers have managed to fireside 4 or extra pictures in a fixture in opposition to Leeds this season as their open soccer philosophy permits gamers like Mount to get into central capturing positions. Attacking midfielders akin to De Bruyne, Bruno Fernandes, Jonjo Shelvey and Mentioned Benrahma have all managed to fireside 4 or extra pictures in a sport in opposition to Leeds this season. Mount can add his title to that checklist, with 2/1 on offer from Sky Bet.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-3
BETTING ANGLE: Mason Mount to have four or more shots (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs West Brom, Saturday 3pm, reside on Sky Sports activities (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)
Saturday thirteenth March 2:30pm
Kick off 3:00pm
In the case of West Brom strikers leaving a legacy, Mbaye Diagne is nearer to Markus Rosenberg than Geoff Horsfield on that exact spectrum.
Only one aim in eight video games is a reasonably wretched document however that solely tells half the story – he has been the almost man for the Baggies and will have been the subsequent Horsfield with a bit extra luck.
Since signing, no participant within the Premier League has the next anticipated aim determine than Diagne’s – in these eight video games the standard of likelihood falling his method has gathered 4.63 targets. That doesn’t embody the hassle he had dominated out for offside by VAR within the 1-0 defeat to Everton, too.
In whole, he has missed eight huge probabilities since becoming a member of on mortgage and his confidence regarded low vs Newcastle, snatching at probabilities and dropping stability at essential occasions when his teammates discovered him in area.
Nevertheless, I’m keen to roll the cube yet one more time with Diagne – contemplating this weekend’s opponents. Palace won’t be altering their game-plan of defending deep and absorbing strain even in opposition to the all-but relegated Baggies. It is a soccer philosophy that has seen them concede essentially the most headed pictures on their aim this season of any Premier League workforce (90) with 9 targets conceded through a header. Diagne can star for the away aspect by scoring first at 7/1 with Sky Bet right here in an overdue win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2
BETTING ANGLE: Mbaye Diagne to score first (7/1 with Sky Bet)
Everton vs Burnley, Saturday 5.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Saturday thirteenth March 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
I’m nonetheless having belief points with Everton, particularly in residence video games when the onus is on them to make the working.
They secured a primary win in six residence Premier League video games in opposition to Southampton, having picked up only one level from their earlier 15 factors obtainable.
Fairly staggeringly, Everton haven’t gained the pictures depend in all of their matches since drawing with Burnley on December 5. That is a 16-game run. I can not again them right here in opposition to a workforce that has misplaced simply one in all their final seven. I’ll play the draw.
The dynamic between Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin as a entrance pairing ought to proceed to show a fruitful tactic for Carlo Ancelotti although. Since switching to play as a centre-forward – he moved again to a extra left-sided position in a formation change at Chelsea – the Brazilian has scored 4 occasions in 5 video games. His intelligent motion, dovetailed with Calvert-Lewin’s physicality is an thrilling formulation for Everton not just for the rest of the marketing campaign however within the long-term too.
Richarlison celebrates his aim with team-mate Dominic Calvert-Lewin
I need to again Richarlison to attain first on this one. He seems a shade overpriced at 5/1 with Sky Bet compared to Calvert-Lewin, who regardless of having his finest goalscoring season with 18 has solely managed two targets in his final 13 video games and is being priced up because the 13/5 favorite.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Richarlison to score first (5/1 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Manchester Metropolis, Saturday 8pm
With the title all-but gained for Manchester Metropolis – they’re 14 factors clear at high of desk and 1/500 with Sky Bet – their video games might be fairly enjoyable to look at between now and the top of the marketing campaign because the shackles may come off in ahead areas. In between their defeat to Manchester United, they’ve fired 9 targets previous Wolves and Southampton. With assured Fulham more likely to play with their traditional attacking intent, this encounter must be one for the purists.
Backing targets seems a robust angle however Fulham could not maintain up their finish of the cut price – Scott Parker’s workforce have solely scored two or extra targets in a sport twice within the final 17 video games and Metropolis won’t offer up many clear-cut probabilities, will they? Fulham are additionally the bottom residence scorers within the Premier League with simply eight targets scored from 14 video games.
That leads me to the entire match pictures market. Regardless of not scoring many, Fulham do get into capturing positions as showcased by a median of 13 pictures per sport of their final seven video games. No workforce has had extra pictures on aim than Pep Guardiola’s aspect this season (458), working at a median of 16 per sport. Combining these two averages definitely makes the 5/4 with Sky Bet for 26 pictures or extra very interesting in what must be a excessive tempo sport.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-3
BETTING ANGLE: 26 shots or more in the match (5/4 with Sky Bet)
Southampton vs Brighton, Sunday 12pm
I’m stunned to see Brighton as favourites with Sky Guess for this one. The markets stay fascinated and obsessive about Graham Potter’s workforce turning their type round. They’ve some extent when it comes to their relegation probabilities and certainly they are going to have an excessive amount of to become involved in that scrap, however Southampton – to my eye – are well-equipped to win this sport.
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s aspect have put spectacular back-to-back performances collectively within the win at Sheffield United and a harsh 5-2 beating at Manchester Metropolis, the place they performed with nice bravery and confidence for giant elements however have been finally simply outclassed. Plus, underneath Hasenhuttl, Saints are unbeaten in 4 video games vs Brighton, profitable three, together with the reverse fixture 2-1 on the Amex regardless of Brighton having followers again contained in the stadium. The Evens for Southampton Draw No Bet (that means we get a full return if Saints win and our stake again if it is a draw) seems finest guess materials for the weekend.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Southampton draw no bet (Evens with Sky Bet)
Leicester vs Sheffield United, Sunday 2pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Sunday 14th March 1:00pm
Kick off 2:00pm
I’m not fully reliable of Leicester as an attacking drive in the mean time with out James Maddison.
To his credit score, Brendan Rodgers has received his workforce grinding out outcomes which has saved them firmly answerable for their high 4 ending future. Since beating Liverpool 3-1, Leicester’s attacking numbers have declined. In 4 video games in opposition to Arsenal, Aston Villa, Burnley and Brighton, the Foxes have posted a complete anticipated aim determine of simply 3.57 – the third lowest of any Premier League workforce in that interval. In case you throw within the two video games vs Slavia Prague, their common anticipated aim determine per sport has been a worrying 0.77.
That drop-off has coincided with an absence of targets for Jamie Vardy, who solely has one aim in his final 14 video games. Going additional again, Vardy solely has 5 non-penalty targets in his final 22 Premier League appearances at King Energy Stadium.
Sheffield United have scored simply 16 Premier League targets this season – the fewest within the high 4 English divisions and joint-fewest in main European Leagues (with Schalke). While you throw within the shot-shy Blades into the combo for this match then under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Sky Bet looks a worthy shout.
Fortunately for Rodgers’ workforce this weekend, one aim most likely will probably be sufficient to land the factors right here. The Blades stay aggressive in matches however confidence now seems again to ranges of their woeful run initially of the season. They are going to simply need this season to be over now and to regroup.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0
BETTING ANGLE: Under 2.5 goals (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Sunday 14th March 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
In case you like your soccer matches with a dollop of dirtiness – then fill your boots with this one.
Predicting an outright consequence on this one seems a tricky ask when assessing the chances – the bookmakers have gotten it spot on. This has the look of a really tight affair with a second of insanity or magic more likely to be the place that is gained or misplaced. My eye is drawn to the playing cards markets as now we have all of the elements for a really spicy encounter.
These two groups have drawn essentially the most yellow playing cards off opposition gamers this season. Tottenham (60) and Arsenal (53) are the Premier League kings in that regard with each groups possessing a liking for attacking with tempo and energy.
Historically, that is additionally a fixture the place playing cards are thrown round like confetti. When taking a look at fixtures with a minimal of 20 conferences, this sport sits joint-third within the checklist of most playing cards produced with a median of 4.2 playing cards per sport – solely Chelsea vs Manchester United and Sunderland vs Newcastle averages larger on the soiled ratio.
There’s two methods to assault card angles – whether or not you pinpoint a selected participant be carded or play an outright card depend involving each groups. With Thomas Partey (17/10 with Sky Bet), Granit Xhaka (21/10 with Sky Bet) and Pierre Emile-Hojbjerg (2/1 with Sky Bet) effectively discovered out there, I’m trying in the direction of the outright card depend for my guess.
Granit Xhaka was dismissed vs Burnley
I just like the look of over 50 booking points at 5/4 with Sky Bet (10 factors for a yellow, 25 factors for a purple) – so, we’re on the lookout for 5 bookings with the added likelihood of a purple card – there’s been 13 on this fixture – probably boosting our probabilities. With that in thoughts, backing Arsenal to obtain a purple card at 7/2 with Sky Bet additionally makes enchantment. No workforce have seen purple extra occasions within the Premier League (9) since Mikel Arteta took cost in 2019.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Over 50 booking points (5/4 with Sky Bet) & Arsenal to have a player sent off (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs West Ham, Sunday 7.15pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
The house win seems a giant value right here. I used to be stunned to see Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s workforce buying and selling round 4/5 with Sky Guess.
West Ham have solely misplaced 4 of their final 20 Premier League video games however these did come in opposition to the elite with defeats to Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester Metropolis and Manchester United. There appears to be an air of worry after they come up in opposition to one of many huge boys with their deep defensive position more likely to be opened up by a high quality piece of play from a high participant. United have an array of these.
The unavailability of Jesse Lingard may also be a giant miss. He has knitted West Ham’s intelligent counter assaults collectively in latest weeks – the one sport he has missed was the 1-0 FA Cup defeat at Previous Trafford the place West Ham had simply three pictures at aim and posted an anticipated aim determine of 0.11.
It is very troublesome to see West Ham scoring in opposition to a United defence that’s on the enhance, managing to maintain out Chelsea and Manchester Metropolis during the last two weeks.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: Manchester United to win to nil (9/4 with Sky Bet)
Wolves vs Liverpool, Monday 8pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Monday fifteenth March 7:00pm
Kick off 8:00pm
You may need to go get a family chore carried out within the first half of this one or take the canine out. Tune in for a little bit of pre-match Jamie Carragher, in fact, however don’t worry about watching the primary 45 minutes as the 2 lowest scoring first half groups within the Premier League (since 22 January) meet. Each groups have scored only one aim apiece of their 9 respective fixtures in that interval.
Taking it additional again, Jurgen Klopp’s aspect have scored one first half aim of their final 13 Premier League video games whereas Wolves have solely managed one of their final 9 opening 45 minutes. While you issue within the seemingly make-up of the sport too, it has to convey the 15/8 with Sky Bet for the rating to be 0-0 on the break onto your radar. Nuno’s aspect will probably be glad to sit down and frustrate Liverpool by defending deep and breaking down a defensive block is proving an unattainable process for Klopp’s workforce in the mean time.
Possibilities will most likely circulation with a bit extra regularity within the second half if Wolves resolve to open up – however the longer the sport stays 0-0, the extra seemingly they are going to be pleased with some extent. The 10/1 for a 0-0 at full-time also is worth a look.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0
BETTING ANGLE: Half-time correct score to be 0-0 (15/8 with Sky Bet)
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