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Week 16 of the NFL season was filled with playoff implications, but it surely additionally had an outsized impact on the NFL MVP discussion.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes struggled in opposition to a weaker Atlanta Falcons protection whereas Green Bay‘s Aaron Rodgers shredded the Tennessee Titans in prime time. The MVP betting odds flipped from an implied probability of Mahomes at 80% going into the week to Rodgers as an equal favourite with one doubtlessly meaningless week left within the season.
Rodgers now leads Mahomes in most effectivity measures, together with PFF passing grade (94.2 to 90.4) and expected points added (EPA) per play. And in case you consider environment friendly play — not counting stats or partial subsets like touchdown-to-interception ratios — is most necessary, Rodgers needs to be the straightforward selection for MVP, as he has small however clear leads over Mahomes in essentially the most consultant measures.
Nonetheless, worth isn’t simply effectivity. Along with statistical measures, the Rodgers MVP case is constructed on the notion of barely higher play, which could be deceiving.
Digging additional into the situations through which Mahomes and Rodgers generate their manufacturing, the assist coming from teammates and the problem of the defenses confronted, a robust case for Mahomes as MVP emerges. Including these bits of context exhibits that the worth Mahomes produces is probably going greater than any quarterback within the league, and he produces higher than anybody when the offense is most reliant on the quarterback.
Share of the offense
Worth isn’t simply effectivity; it’s additionally how a lot a participant is relied upon.
To make use of an deliberately absurd instance: if a staff was to subject essentially the most environment friendly quarterback within the league, however that quarterback solely threw 5 passes per recreation, he clearly wouldn’t be essentially the most beneficial participant.
And whereas the distinction in utilization of Mahomes and Rodgers isn’t excessive, it’s materials.
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