Our Staff’s Best Bets for Juventus vs. Porto, Borussia Dortmund vs. Sevilla (March 9))

Two European soccer powers will take one other step ahead in Champions League motion Tuesday, with a pair of essential Spherical of 16 matches on the cardboard.

Italian juggernaut Juventus hosts Portuguese powerhouse Porto in Turin and German stalwart Borussia Dortmund seems to be to shut out La Liga standout Sevilla in these intriguing showdowns.

Our Motion Community soccer analysts have focused 4 performs coming into these conferences, with the mixture winners advancing to the quarterfinal spherical of the showcase.

Let’s check out their detailed evaluation and featured picks.

Odds up to date as of Monday night through DraftKings. 

BJ Cunningham: Juventus vs. Porto — Complete Below 2.5 Targets (+112)

Juventus goes to have its palms full on this match for a pair causes: (1) Porto’s protection is extremely troublesome to breakdown; and, 2) it’s seemingly going to park the bus in entrance of web and check out for a 0-0 draw.

Porto’s protection has been a fortress throughout Primeira Liga play, permitting solely 0.89 anticipated objectives per match. The rationale for that’s due to the actual fact it performs out of a 4-4-2 formation, which is without doubt one of the most defensive in soccer.

I anticipate Porto to bunker in entrance of the 18-yard field and never even attempt to go ahead in assault. Why do I anticipate that situation, you ask?

Nicely, as a result of the Dragons did the very same factor towards Manchester Metropolis within the group stage when all they wanted was a draw to advance to the knockout stage. They had been in a position to safe a scoreless stalemate, however solely created 0.04 xG for the match.

Juventus is beginning to flip issues round in Serie A play. The Black and Whites have received six of their final eight matches, together with seven in a row at Allianz Stadium. Supervisor Andrea Pirlo switched Juventus to a 4-4-2 this season, which has been met with nice outcomes, because it’s averaging 2.36 xGF and permitting simply 0.97 xG per contest.

So, with each groups enjoying out of a 4-4-2, that is seemingly going to be a really defensive contest, particularly with Porto hoping for no objectives and Juventus solely needing a 1-0 win because it scored that coveted away purpose within the first leg.

Jeremy Pond: Parlay — Complete Below 3 Targets in Each Matches (+220)

There isn’t an entire lot extra I can add to what my colleague, BJ, spelled out above relating to the Juventus-Porto tilt. I absolutely anticipate the Portuguese outfit to have eight or 9 gamers behind the ball, with the hope of the match ending in a scoreless stalemate.

Do I believe that’s going to work towards such a high-powered aspect like Juventus? I don’t. My intestine tells me la Vecchia Segnora aka the Previous Woman will breakthrough for at the very least one purpose to guide its spot within the quarterfinal spherical.

Cristiano Ronaldo and Juventus not often get shut out, scoring at the very least as soon as in 32 of their 37 matches throughout all competitions. The Italian big has scored a mixed 10 objectives in its final 4 Serie A affairs, together with three objectives towards Spezia and Lazio in back-to-back triumphs.

As for Dortmund’s showdown with Spanish outfit Sevilla, the mix of the German aspect doubtlessly lacking two of its stars and a foe that defines offensive lethargy has me forecasting a low-scoring affair.

Dortmund will likely be with out Jadon Sancho and probably wunderkind Erling Haaland, who left Saturday’s thriller towards Bayern Munich with a knock. With Sancho out and Haaland seemingly solely obtainable in a reserve function, that severely limits the Black and Yellow assault.

On the opposite aspect, you’ve got a Sevilla group within the midst of a dramatic decline in kind. Sevillistas Los Rojiblancos have misplaced 4 of their final matches throughout all competitions, together with three in a row. 

Based on the xG knowledge through FBref.com, Sevilla has completed with 0.7 xG, 0.1 xG and 0.9 xG in its final three La Liga fixtures. Suffice it to say, these stats don’t scream “goal-scoring machine” when speaking concerning the customer.

That mentioned, let’s roll the cube with a parlay that includes beneath three objectives in every match at ripe +220 odds.

Anthony Dabbundo: Dortmund vs. Sevilla — Complete Below 3 Targets (-107)

Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla performed an exciting 3-2 first leg, forcing the guests to safe a two-goal comeback towards the Germans to advance.

The primary leg was increased scoring due to two early objectives, which got here through a deflected Suso purpose for Sevilla and a 25-yard surprise purpose from Mahmoud Dahoud for Dortmund. That recreation featured simply 2.3 mixed xG, with all three large scoring probabilities being transformed on high of the 2 low proportion objectives.

Dortmund will likely be with out Jadon Sancho, and Erling Haaland left Saturday’s recreation towards Bayern Munich with an harm. He’s prone to play, however won’t be one hundred pc match.

The onus will likely be on Sevilla to create probabilities, nevertheless it’s one of many slowest tempo and build-up groups in Europe. Sevillistas Los Rojiblancos aren’t used to chasing objectives, and the hosts will likely be centered on defending their 1.5-goal lead because of their away objectives within the opening fixture.

Dortmund is aware of its defensive liabilities this yr, which means it can most likely maintain extra numbers behind the ball to create lengthy durations of sluggish possession build-up for Sevilla that doesn’t result in clear scoring probabilities.

I venture 2.72 objectives on this recreation, so I’ll return beneath three objectives as my high choose and hope nice ending and fluke objectives don’t ship this one over the full.

Kieran Darcy: Dortmund ML (+125) vs. Sevilla

Each Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla are coming off losses this previous weekend, however the high quality of their opponents was fairly completely different. Dortmund suffered a 4-2 defeat towards Bundesliga chief Bayern Munich, which got here in a match it really led 2-0 at one level.

Sevilla was handed a 2-1 setback at Elche, which is in seventeenth place in La Liga and rock-bottom of the league when it comes to xG differential.

Dortmund received the primary leg of this tied through 3-2 highway victory, with Erling Haaland scoring twice. Haaland additionally scored each his group’s objectives towards Bayern Munich on Saturday, and is anticipated to play regardless of coming off within the sixtieth minute with an harm.

Sevilla entered the primary leg off the again of 9 consecutive wins in all competitions, however nonetheless misplaced at dwelling. This time, they’re coming off three consecutive defeats.