Week 16 NFL Fantasy QB Breakdown: Patrick Mahomes, MVP

The Week 16 NFL principal slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 27, at 1 p.m. ET.

On this piece, I spotlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most particularly our FantasyLabs Models. Whereas the Fashions are constructed for every day contests, that is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable data for all codecs.

As information breaks all through the week and we alter our projections, the place gamers price in our Fashions will change. For updates, go to the Fashions straight.

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High Quarterbacks within the FantasyLabs Fashions

There are 4 quarterbacks atop the person Professional Fashions that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I’ve constructed.

Right here’s the place they place inside our Week 16 fantasy football rankings (as of Tuesday night).

• Patrick Mahomes: No. 2
• Deshaun Watson: No. 5
• Justin Herbert: No. 10
• Matt Ryan: No. 14

Of those 4, the 2 who stand out most to me are Mahomes and Herbert. The opposite guys I’ll spotlight as wanted within the part on gamers with week-winning upside.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

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Odds as of Tuesday night and through DraftKings Sportsbook, the place you may get as much as a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Patrick Mahomes: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-11) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54 Over/Underneath)

Mahomes has two massive elements in his favor for Week 16.

1. He’s going through the Falcons.
2. He’s Patrick Mahomes

If simply that had been the blurb, it will be sufficient.

Opposing quarterbacks are No. 1 in opposition to the Falcons with 23.1 fantasy factors per sport on 4,241-28-9 passing and 57-320-6 speeding.

The Falcons have been marginally higher on protection because the Week 6 dismissal of head coach Dan Quinn, however they haven’t been considerably higher. This week they is perhaps with out two secondary starters in cornerback Darqueze Dennard (quad) and security Ricardo Allen (concussion), each of whom missed follow all of final week earlier than sitting out their Week 16 sport.

Mahomes has a great matchup, and it’s not as if he even wants it — as a result of he’s Patrick Mahomes.

In Week 7, I guess on Mahomes at +400 to win the 2020 NFL MVP Award (I tracked it within the Action Network App) …

Patrick Mahomes 2018 MVP season vs. 2020, Weeks 1-6:

– 2018: 29.5 PPG, 1,865-18-4 passing, 24-75-2 speeding
– 2020: 29.2 PPG, 1,699-15-1 passing, 34-165-2 speeding

Mahomes is +400 to win MVP — and he’s in MVP type.

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 20, 2020

… and now he’s a massive -400 MVP frontrunner at DraftKings.

He has merely dominated this season. Even when he hasn’t been nice, he has nonetheless been elite. Consider his street sport in opposition to the Dolphins in Week 14: He threw three interceptions and took three sacks for 39 yards — and he nonetheless handed for 393 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-27 win.

His 2020 efficiency is hardly stunning: Since turning into a full-time starter in 2018, Mahomes has by no means been worse than a fantasy QB2, and in 75% of his video games he has been a fantasy QB1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

It’s a slight destructive that Mahomes is on the opposed facet of his residence/street splits (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

• Dwelling (24 video games): 24.1 FanDuel factors | 66.7% Consistency Score
• Highway (23 video games): 26.2 FanDuel factors | 82.6% Consistency Score

However I doubt that may matter in Week 16: The Chiefs have a slate-high 32.25-point implied Vegas total: They need to put up factors.

From a sports activities betting perspective, Mahomes is 30-18-2 in opposition to the unfold (ATS, together with postseason), good for a 22.9% return on funding (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).

Investing in Mahomes tends to be worthwhile.

For the second week in a row, Mahomes leads all quarterbacks in our Models with his median and floor projections.

Mahomes is a no-doubt top-three QB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 quarterback within the Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Fashions for FanDuel.

Justin Herbert: Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos (49 O/U)

Herbert is a -950 favorite at FanDuel to Win Offensive Rookie of the Year. With these odds, Herbert has a 90.5% implied chance to win the award … so his rookie marketing campaign goes nicely.

The truth is, he’s having a season for the ages. In his 13 begins, he has not less than 300 yards or three complete touchdowns in all however two video games. That’s the kind of constant manufacturing you’d anticipate from somebody like Mahomes.

On paper, Herbert’s matchup doesn’t look nice: The Broncos are Nos. 8 & 9 with a 71.4 protection grade and 0.8% pass-defense DVOA (per Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders), however these rankings nearly definitely now not apply, because the Broncos are perilously skinny at cornerback.

Starters A.J. Bouye (suspension), Bryce Callahan (foot, IR) and Essang Bassey (knee, IR) are all out, as is backup Duke Dawson Jr. (knee, IR). This Broncos protection just isn’t the identical unit Herbert confronted in Week 8 — and even then he was a fantasy QB1 with 24.0 fantasy factors on 278-3-2 passing and 3-21-0 speeding.

Three of Herbert’s high pass-catching choices in large receivers Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (again) and working again Austin Ekeler (quadricep) had been severely restricted final week, however the Chargers performed on Thursday so that they now have 10 days to get well. With the additional relaxation, Herbert seems likely to have all his skill-position support in place for Week 16.

Full disclosure: I’m betting in opposition to the Chargers. I can’t assist myself. The Chargers are residence favorites — and that ought to theoretically be good — however head coach Anthony Lynn has a Jason Garrett-esque capability to make the worst out of an excellent scenario.

In Lynn’s 4 years with the Chargers, opposing groups are 15-8-1 ATS (25.2%) as street canines.

You possibly can bet on this game at William Hill, and that is the precise spot wherein sports activities speculators must be fading Lynn and the Chargers.

However the betting angle is irrelevant to Herbert, who has been a splits-independent participant in his first NFL season: His fantasy manufacturing as a house favourite is according to his manufacturing in all different conditions (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Even when the Chargers underperform this week as residence favorites, Herbert is prone to get his fantasy factors.

Herbert is a low-end QB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 quarterback within the CSURAM88 and Hodge Mannequin for FanDuel.

Quarterbacks With Week-Profitable Upside

On this part, I spotlight some quarterbacks I feel will outperform expectations and whom I particularly like as upside season-long and DFS event performs.

Deshaun Watson, Texans (-8.5) vs. Bengals (45.5 O/U): Even with out large receivers Will Fuller (suspension), Randall Cobb (toe, IR) and Kenny Stills (launched), Watson has averaged 8.7 adjusted yards per try (AY/A) over the previous three weeks. Within the 10 video games since head coach Invoice O’Brien’s termination, Watson has averaged 304.2 yards passing and a pair of.1 touchdowns passing. The Bengals are No. 27 with a 17.8% pass-defense DVOA.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles (-2) at Cowboys (49.5 O/U): In his first two NFL begins, Hurts is 505-4-0 passing and 29-169-1 speeding with 23.9 anticipated fantasy factors per sport (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary). He has appeared like end-of-season 2018 Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen — besides higher.

Jalen Hurts is the primary participant in NFL historical past with 500 Cross yards and 150 Rush yards in his first two profession begins. — Elias

— Tim McManus (@Tim_McManus) December 21, 2020

Of all of the quarterbacks within the 2020 draft class, Hurts might have the highest fantasy upside: As a switch senior, he was 3,851-32-8 passing and 233-1,298-20 speeding final yr at Oklahoma, ending No. 2 in Heisman voting. He has position-high +4.50 and +5.63 Projected Plus/Minus values on DraftKings and FanDuel and leads all quarterbacks in our Fashions along with his ceiling projections.

Jared Goff, Rams (+1.5) at Seahawks (47 O/U): He underwhelmed final week with simply 15.3 fantasy factors in a 23-20 loss to the beforehand winless Jets, however Goff has averaged 325.8 yards passing in 5 video games in opposition to the divisional-rival Seahawks since 2018. Opposing quarterbacks are No. 5 in opposition to Seattle with 20.9 fantasy factors per sport on 4,304-22-13 passing and 71-300-5 speeding.

Matt Ryan, Falcons (+11) at Chiefs (55 O/U): No. 1 large receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) is unsure to play. Ryan tends to underwhelm outdoors of a domed surroundings and the Chiefs are No. 10 with a 68.0 PFF protection grade, however he was 356-3-0 passing final week with out Jones in opposition to a top-eight Buccaneers go protection and he has position-high marks with seven Professional Traits and a 79% Cut price Score on DraftKings, the place he’s the consensus high quarterback in our Fashions. Since 2018, Ryan trails solely Patrick Mahomes in 300-yard passing video games with 23.

Mitchell Trubisky, Bears (-7.5) at Jaguars (47 O/U): A statistical bully of the best order, Trubisky has dominated bottom-10 go defenses below the steering of HC Matt Nagy.

The Jaguars are No. 31 with a 19.2% pass-defense DVOA and is perhaps with out beginning cornerbacks C.J. Henderson (groin, IR), Sidney Jones (Achilles) and D.J. Hayden (hamstring, IR). Trubisky makes for a terrific stacking accomplice with No. 1 large receiver Allen Robinson, who has an elite matchup against cornerback Greg Mabin, an undrafted journeyman third-stringer permitting 10.5 yards per goal this yr.

Matthew Freedman is 916-722-34 (55.9%) general betting on the NFL. You possibly can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is often known as the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Patrick Mahomes
Picture credit score: Rob Carr/Getty Pictures