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The official begin of 2021 NFL free company is simply across the nook. Dozens of huge names are set to hit the open market, and whereas a handful might be locked up (no less than briefly) with franchise tags, a lot extra will get the possibility to discover new properties across the league. With a reduced salary cap so as after 2020’s pandemic-related losses, how a lot can we anticipate the highest free brokers to command? We determined to look again on the prime earners from each place final offseason, then forecast this 12 months’s market primarily based on provide, demand and up to date contract precedents.
In doing so, we excluded the next gamers from 2021 projections as a result of they’re extensively anticipated to obtain the franchise tag: QB Dak Prescott, WR Allen Robinson, WR Kenny Golladay, OT Taylor Moton, DE Carl Lawson and S Justin Simmons. We additionally sorted prime contracts from 2020 by common cash per 12 months fairly than complete cash. For instance, Teddy Bridgewater obtained extra complete cash ($63 million) than Philip Rivers ($25 million) in 2020, however the latter averaged extra per 12 months. One last observe: Solely gamers who really entered free company’s authorized tampering interval with out a contract are included in our overview of the highest 2020 offers.
Quarterback
High 2020 free agent earners: Tom Brady ($25 million), Philip Rivers ($25 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mitchell Trubisky
Projected market worth: $5 million-$10 million per 12 months
This can be an unprecedented offseason when it comes to QB motion, however it’s most positively not a superb one when you’re trying so as to add a starter in free company. Even within the occasion Winston or Fitzpatrick finagles a group for a two- or three-year gig with beginning upside, the height QB deal this 12 months should not come near these earned by the previous (however profitable) winners of 2020. That is as a result of not a single 2021 free agent right here is deserving of an unquestioned beginning job.
Operating again
High 2020 free agent earners: Melvin Gordon ($8 million), Todd Gurley ($5.5 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Leonard Fournette
Projected market worth: $10 million-$15 million per 12 months
In contrast to the 2020 market, the place outcast starters struggled to get near $10 million per 12 months, there is a strong crop of youthful, multipurpose backs this time round. Jones ought to tempo all of them and coax near $15 million out of the highest bidder if he escapes Inexperienced Bay, roughly matching stars like Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott. Carson might conceivably hit the Dalvin Prepare dinner/Derrick Henry vary of $12 million.
Extensive receiver
High 2020 free agent earners: Amari Cooper ($20 million), Robby Anderson ($10 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Chris Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Will Fuller
Projected market worth: $12 million-$20 million per 12 months
If there’s one group that might blow the numbers out of the water, it is WR, the place (together with tag candidates) we might see upwards of eight or 9 guys prime $10 million per 12 months. Godwin could properly get tagged, however the Buccaneers have others to pay, too. Smith-Schuster, Fuller, Corey Davis and Curtis Samuel might all clear $12 million as high-upside starters. T.Y. Hilton, Nelson Agholor, Marvin Jones and Antonio Brown may all be bargains simply due to the amount right here.
Tight finish
High 2020 free agent earners: Austin Hooper ($10.5 million), Jimmy Graham ($8 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Rob Gronkowski
Projected market worth: $9 million-$11 million per 12 months
Neither of 2020’s prime offers look significantly nice, with Hooper trying simply so-so and Graham probably on his means out of Chicago. There is a bit extra promise this time round, albeit in a top-heavy group, with each Henry and Smith able to fetching greater than $10 million per 12 months as No. 1s. Gronk looks as if a certain wager to re-up in Tampa Bay with one other one-year pact within the vary of $9-10 million.
Offensive line
High 2020 free agent earners: Jack Conklin ($14 million), Graham Glasgow ($11 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, Joe Thuney
Projected market worth: $13 million-$20 million per 12 months
High quality blockers are at all times in excessive demand, and this 12 months, there’s really a strong group of plug-and-play starters at every place — Williams at sort out, Scherff and Thuney at guard, and Corey Linsley at middle. Contenders with cash to spend might simply dish out near $20 million for a blind-side starter like Williams, whereas each Scherff and Thuney are Professional Bowl-caliber inside males.
Defensive position
High 2020 free agent earners: D.J. Reader ($13.25 million), Javon Hargrave ($13 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Leonard Williams, Dalvin Tomlinson
Projected market worth: $12 million-$20 million per 12 months
This could be one of many greatest boom-or-bust teams when it comes to how a lot cash it will command. Williams’ inventory appears to maintain rising as he approaches the market, and somebody will inevitably discuss themselves into shopping for his Chris Jones– or Fletcher Cox-level upside on the value of $17 million-$20 million per 12 months, until the Giants achieve this.
Move rusher
High 2020 free agent earners: Dante Fowler Jr. ($15 million), Robert Quinn ($14 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Shaquil Barrett, Bud Dupree, Yannick Ngakoue
Projected market worth: $15 million-$20 million per 12 months
Groups have paid a fairly penny for move rushers for a very long time, which is why they simply have the best financial flooring of any place group. Barrett may very well be tagged, but when he is not, he’ll wish to rival the typical salaries of fellows like Cameron Jordan ($17.5 million), Frank Clark ($20.8 million) and Demarcus Lawrence ($21 million). Neither Dupree nor Ngakoue are essentially elite on their very own, however like others on this class (Trey Hendrickson, Matt Judon, Leonard Floyd), they’re going to nearly definitely get top-25 edge rusher cash.
Linebacker
High 2020 free agent earners: Cory Littleton ($11.75 million), Joe Schobert ($10.75 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Lavonte David, Matt Milano, Jayon Brown
Projected market worth: $10 million-$14 million per 12 months
We are likely to overlook off-ball linebackers in immediately’s NFL (properly, possibly not after what Tampa Bay’s protection did within the Super Bowl). However the trio of David, Milano and Brown — every of whom brings an actual tenacity to the center of the sector — might shock with the offers they get. David, particularly, makes a ton of sense as a one- to three-year wager for a contender.
Cornerback
High 2020 free agent earners: Byron Jones ($16.5 million), James Bradberry ($14.5 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Shaquill Griffin, William Jackson III
Projected market worth: $9 million-$14 million per 12 months
A 12 months after Jones set the stage without spending a dime agent corners in Miami, it will be exhausting for anybody to match, not to mention prime, him in 2021. Griffin is a a lot streakier starter popping out of Seattle, and whereas Jackson has youth on his facet, even a Trae Waynes-level overpay in his favor is not more likely to crack $15 million per 12 months. Needy groups could be higher off on the lookout for smaller gambles like Xavier Rhodes or Chidobe Awuzie.
Security
High 2020 free agent earners: Logan Ryan ($10 million), Jimmie Ward ($9.5 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Marcus Williams, Marcus Maye, Anthony Harris
Projected market worth: $11 million-$15 million per 12 months
A 12 months after battered or older veterans led the market on the again finish of the secondary, the 2021 security class is chock-full of up-and-comers. Williams, Maye and Rams vet John Johnson III might all ink profitable offers with a handful of cap-loaded groups on the hunt for brand new defensive starters. Harris could also be on the lookout for one final main payday after enjoying 2020 on the tag.
Particular groups
High 2020 free agent earners: Stephen Gostkowski ($2.75 million), Greg Zuerlein ($2.5 million)
Projected prime 2021 free agent earners: Younghoe Koo, Ryan Succop, Zane Gonzalez
Projected market worth: $3 million-$4.5 million per 12 months
Koo may very well be in line for one thing near the extension Graham Gano ($4.66 million per 12 months) obtained with the Giants late in 2020 because of his efficiency in Atlanta. In any other case, it is enterprise as normal right here, with most groups preferring the waiver wire or undrafted rookie pool.
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