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After tipping two 33/1 winners final week, together with Declan Rice to attain first, Jones Is aware of is again together with his Premier League predictions and betting angles.
Wolves vs Leeds United, Friday 8pm
Watching their aspect have to be a irritating expertise for Wolves followers.
Why do the shackles solely come off on their thrilling attacking unit as soon as falling behind in video games? The win at Southampton the place they got here from behind to win within the second half – tipped by this parish at 33/1 – was one other instance. Because the begin of final season, solely Manchester United have picked up extra factors from shedding positions than Nuno Espirito Santo’s aspect (33). With them caught in mid-table obscurity, certainly now’s the time to unleash the excellent Pedro Neto and Adama Traore with free reign from the beginning and play increased up the pitch?
I believe in the event that they go toe to toe with Leeds, their superior high quality will shine by way of. However Nuno is a result-at-all-costs type of man and can certainly look to stifle Marcelo Bielsa’s assault then edge forward when potential, like they did within the reverse fixture at Elland Street that ended 1-0 of their favour.
It is a disgrace – simply unleash them, Nuno.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Wolves to win by one goal (3/1 with Sky Bet)
Southampton vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30
Southampton have misplaced every of their final six Premier League video games and the market has strongly sided with Thomas Tuchel’s boys right here, who’ve picked up 13 factors from his first 5 Premier League video games in cost.
Ralph Hasenhutt’s workforce are operating out of steam, for certain, however they continue to be able to making life very troublesome for any workforce that ventures onto their patch. Of their 4 conferences at St Mary’s with groups at present within the high six, they’ve crushed Liverpool, misplaced by only a single aim to Manchester Metropolis and Manchester United and drawn 0-0 with West Ham. A quick begin can be completely essential to their probabilities of getting a end result – Southampton have scored the primary aim in 9 of their 11 house matches this season, so the 7/4 for them to score the first goal makes sense. I am going to play the draw.
A betting angle to contemplate is Cesar Azpilicueta to choose up a reserving – it is a wager I beneficial with confidence in opposition to Newcastle however Allan Saint-Maximin by no means regarded at testing the Spaniard one on one, avoiding being fouled when beginning a Premier League sport only for the third time since arriving in England.
Azpilicueta stays weak to a workforce that prefer to play at a excessive tempo with the ball. He is been an ever-present for Tuchel within the Premier League on the fitting of a again three however is susceptible to a late problem on a speedy opponent. Eberechi Eze, Ademola Lookman, Anwar El Ghazi and Son Heung-min have all acquired Azpilicueta booked this marketing campaign. With Danny Ings, Nathan Redmond, Ryan Bertrand and Stuart Armstrong buzzing round him, one other wild lunge certainly awaits.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Cesar Azpilicueta to receive a card (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Burnley vs West Bromwich Albion, Saturday 3pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
The market has sided with a fairly low goal-line for this one primarily based upon these two being two of the lowest-scoring groups within the Premier League. Nevertheless, of late, the attacking processes on present from each are trending in the fitting route. That makes me need to again targets.
In three matches in opposition to groups within the backside half below Sam Allardyce, the Baggies have scored six targets with an anticipated aim determine of 4.89 backing that bettering attacking course of up. Plus, they created the higher probabilities of their 1-1 draw with Manchester United, even successful the xG battle.
In the meantime, Burnley have netted 5 of their final three video games vs groups holding a backside half place with an xG determine of 4.12 produced. Each groups appear assured in the way in which they assault and with West Brom actually requiring most factors on this one, the both teams to score and over 2.5 goals price at 6/4 looks one of the more solid short priced options ahead of the weekend.
By way of an outright prediction, I am completely satisfied to aspect with Burnley, who did us a favour final weekend strolling previous Crystal Palace, showcasing their capability at successful matches in opposition to equally ranked groups.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (6/4 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Saturday twentieth February 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
That is the place Liverpool come roaring again to kind, is not it?
They threatened it final weekend within the first 70 minutes in opposition to Leicester however hit the implosion button as particular person errors price them factors but once more. Liverpool have made essentially the most errors resulting in targets (8) this season and rank second for many errors resulting in photographs (13). I nonetheless imagine the method of this Liverpool workforce stays sturdy nevertheless it’s a case of errors and a major drop in conversion fee accountable for a fairly horrendous run of outcomes.
Speaking of conversion fee, Everton have one of the best shot conversion fee (15.56 per cent) within the Premier League and the third finest taking pictures accuracy (53.4 per cent). This explains how they’ve managed to get on the coattails of Liverpool regardless of only a aim distinction of +2 this season.
That statistic might be checked out two methods, however I am very a lot completely satisfied to file it below the unsustainable class. Liverpool ought to have an excessive amount of firepower with Everton near operating on empty having been tasked with taking part in 4 video games in 10 days.
That is formally the dirtiest fixture in Premier League historical past, with 22 purple playing cards in 57 Premier League conferences and there could be important needle even with out followers contemplating the extended fallout from Jordan Pickford’s problem on Virgil van Dijk in a spicy 2-2 draw at Goodison Park. A sending off is 4/1 with Sky Bet if that floats your boat.
I used to be enthusiastic about attacking the reserving factors traces as Liverpool have picked up 17 playing cards of their final 9 video games – a giant upturn from their ordinary numbers. Compared, earlier than that they’d acquired simply 12 playing cards in 19 video games. Nevertheless, Sky Guess are on the ball with three or extra Liverpool bookings solely a 3/1 shot so I might quite again their most persistent foul service provider to choose up a card.
Thiago can be charging round in ordinary reckless trend in midfield, particularly in a derby. No participant has made extra fouls than him in 2021 within the Premier League (22) and at 100/30 he looks a nice spot of value to be carded for the fourth time this year.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 3-0
BETTING ANGLE: Thiago to pick up a card (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Sheffield United, Saturday 8pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
To coin a horse racing phrase, Fulham are finest recent.
After they’ve been given eight days or extra between matches they’ve picked up spectacular victories at Leicester and Everton. Nevertheless, outcomes dip when the schedule catches up with them, as seen by their limp displaying within the 1-1 draw with Burnley on Wednesday. A 3rd sport in six days can be a tricky ask and their continued flaky ranges might be seized upon by the battling Blades, who’ve been nicely discovered available in the market for this one with solely 5/2 obtainable on the away win. I believed they’d be larger however I am completely satisfied to place religion in them.
A greater angle to assault truly lies within the offside markets. Now, sure groups just like the Blades are at all times price a glance within the offside markets when dealing with Fulham. Solely Liverpool have caught extra gamers offside this season than Fulham (61) with Burnley falling foul of their offside entice six instances within the 1-1 draw on Wednesday evening.
Premier League predictions: Jones Is aware of is again together with his insights
This weekend’s opponents prefer to work the area in behind defences by way of their marauding large gamers and are not afraid to go lengthy straight into their entrance males, therefore extra doubtless alternatives to be caught offside. Solely Manchester United, Burnley, Southampton and West Ham have been caught offside extra this season than the Blades (48).
Within the reverse fixture at Bramall Lane, Chris Wilder’s males had been caught offside 5 instances in opposition to Fulham as they gave the Fulham again 5 a superb exercise with their intelligent motion down the channels.
I might count on comparable numbers for this weekend’s assembly, particularly as each groups can be going for max factors and there needs to be loads of alternatives for the Blades to interrupt. Punters needs to be pointed in the direction of the very beneficiant 10/11 for three or more offsides. As quick costs go, it is one of the vital tempting ones I’ve seen all season, particularly if Billy Sharp retains his place in assault. He will get caught offside 1.4 instances per-game.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1
BETTING ANGLE: Sheffield United to be caught offside three or more times (10/11 with Sky Bet)
West Ham United vs Tottenham Hotspur, Sunday 12pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
After I see the phrases West Ham, I come over in the identical response as to when somebody asks me to do some algebra. My head simply goes to jelly. West Ham are my unsolvable equation.
After I fancy them, they lose. After I take them on, they flip into the Brazil workforce from the Seventies.
Deep down my intestine and the numbers are telling me they’re overperforming nonetheless and popping out on the fitting aspect of some effective margins however David Moyes has created a well-oiled machine and has invested shrewdly in gamers with factors to show in ahead areas.
Saying that, I am unsure Moyes has the instruments to beat the elite groups. There’s in fact an argument to recommend whether or not Tottenham needs to be included in that class after choosing up simply 11 factors of their final 11 Premier League video games. However, Hammers followers rejoice, I am completely satisfied to play the away win right here.
Moyes has by no means crushed a Jose Mourinho aspect in 15 makes an attempt – essentially the most he has confronted a supervisor in his profession with out successful and certainly Mourinho has to let his aspect off the leash right here.
And when the boss permits his entrance gamers to licence to play, there is a good probability Harry Kane and Heung-min Son are going to hyperlink as much as devastating impact. Kane has assisted a Son goal nine times this season and I’m happy to take a punt on the 8/1 for another.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2
BETTING ANGLE: Heung-min Son to score a goal assisted by Harry Kane (8/1 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Leicester, Sunday 2.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Sunday twenty first February 2:00pm
Kick off 2:05pm
Has Aston Villa’s season peaked? Halfway by way of January, I used to be significantly near backing them for a top-four end however their performances have stalled within the final 4 video games. In truth, Dean Smith’s aspect can rely themselves fairly lucky to come back out of that run with seven factors when assessing their attacking knowledge. In that interval, they really sit backside of the anticipated targets scored desk within the Premier League, registering a determine of simply 2.65. Earlier than that, they’d ranked third within the division for whole anticipated targets scored. Solely West Brom have had fewer photographs than them of their final 4 video games too with simply 33 registered.
I’ve acquired to be in opposition to them this week the place that lack of attacking menace comes up in opposition to a brick wall of a Leicester defence.
Brendan Rodgers’s aspect have conceded only one aim of their final 5 video games – Mohamed Salah managed to interrupt by way of within the win over Liverpool, however that is been it. It is no coincidence this effective run has developed with Caglar Soyuncu again to full health. The truth that Leicester have coped so easily with out the Turkish worldwide this season is a testomony to the administration of Rodgers and the potential proven by Wesley Fofana.
It was solely lower than six months in the past that Soyuncu was being talked about as a possible Manchester Metropolis goal after a formidable season with the Foxes the place he helped them ease the burden of shedding Harry Maguire. Soyuncu’s affect, added to a tailing off of Villa’s attacking course of, makes me just like the look of the 5/2 for a Foxes clean sheet.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1
BETTING ANGLE: Leicester clean sheet (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Manchester Metropolis, Sunday 4.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
So, the run goes on.
Victory at Everton was Manchester Metropolis’s seventeenth win in a row in all competitions, their twelfth within the Premier League. They haven’t trailed for a single minute in any of their final 16 Premier League video games – the final time they fell behind in any sport was in opposition to Sky Guess League Two aspect Cheltenham City, who had been simply 9 minutes away from knocking them out of the FA Cup. Humorous previous sport.
Can Arsenal develop into that workforce to finish this successful run? They’ve the defensive capabilities to take action. Very like Pep Guardiola’s successful machine, Mikel Arteta’s workforce play with imperious construction with out the ball and have the power to malfunction a free-flowing assault, like they did to Metropolis of their 2-0 FA Cup semi-final win final season. I believe they’ll get a end result.
A typical theme this season in conferences between the standard “massive six” has been a scarcity of targets in response to what the market expects with 5 0-0’s seen already this season.
Though it isn’t a wager for everybody to get on board with as a aim ends all curiosity, the 0-0 is price just a little tickle at 12/1 with Sky Bet. It wouldn’t be a disaster for both teams.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0 (12/1 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Newcastle United, Sunday 7pm
I need to get Newcastle on my aspect on this one.
Manchester United look a workforce on the verge of encountering a foul run of kind that each one the top-six golf equipment have confronted sooner or later this season. You could possibly argue Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s are literally already within the midst of a sticky patch with only one win from their final 4 league video games vs Sheffield United, Southampton, Everton and West Brom.
It was that efficiency on the Baggies, backed up by equally nervous showings of late, that means to me that it should be a battle for them to carry onto second place for for much longer. Sam Allardyce’s males defended resolutely, sure, however they had been by no means put below any stress from United’s ahead play. An anticipated targets determine of simply 0.47 – their second lowest recorded this season – showcased simply how a lot inspiration they lacked within the remaining third. They’re simply swerved right here at 1/4 with Sky Guess.
There appears to be a sense that Newcastle are critical relegation contenders however a fast have a look at the desk sees them six factors away from the drop. I might be very stunned in the event that they even get dragged into the scrap if they continue to be taking part in on this extra attack-minded model we have seen of late. This is not the Newcastle of some weeks in the past that embarrassed themselves in a 1-0 defeat at Sheffield United. It is a braver, extra forward-thinking method.
Since switching to this diamond-like formation midway by way of their defeat to Leeds with Miguel Almiron taking part in within the pocket, Newcastle are averaging slightly below two targets a sport nonetheless and 12.5 photographs a sport. I believed they dealt with themselves fairly nicely at Chelsea, registering 10 photographs at aim – essentially the most Thomas Tuchel has confronted within the league since taking up at Stamford Bridge. Sure, there’s going to be an issue ending these probabilities with out Callum Wilson however taking part in this manner will nonetheless get Newcastle into harmful areas of the pitch with Allan Saint-Maximin an apparent menace.
There’s plenty of betting angles I am eager to assault. Maybe the strongest one, by way of nailing a return, could be to again Newcastle with a two-goal head start at 10/11. So, for the wager to win Newcastle both have to win, draw or lose by one aim.
This can be a wager that might have gained backing the opposing workforce in 14 of Manchester United’s final 16 matches.
I additionally just like the 11/10 for Newcastle to have 10 or extra photographs and would not be in opposition to taking part in the 9/2 for 13 or extra photographs.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle +2 (10/11 with Sky Bet)
BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle to have 13 or more shots (9/2 with Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Monday 8pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
If Crystal Palace proceed to play with the identical lacklustre perspective on present of their final two defeats at Leeds and at house to Burnley, then Fulham might need an opportunity of chasing them down within the relegation battle. They’re seemingly meandering in the direction of the tip of the season the place Roy Hodgson is out of contract and a change within the dugout is most likely afoot. It isn’t a perfect situation if they’re to be dragged into the scrap. Will the gamers be motivated?
Brighton, in the meantime, are a membership heading in the other way below Graham Potter. Sure, cricket rating scorelines aren’t going to be racked up of their favour however their course of with and with out the ball could make them a possible power on this league if gamers proceed to enhance. With Wilfried Zaha nonetheless within the therapy room, beleaguered Palace could battle to reside with Brighton’s elegant method.
Someway Palace walked away with a 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park within the reverse fixture regardless of having only one shot on aim in the course of the 90 minutes in comparison with Brighton’s 20. It’s totally troublesome to see how Hodgson’s boys are going to bother a defence that has conceded simply two targets of their final seven matches. Dwelling win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: Brighton to win to nil (7/4 with Sky Bet)
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