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Beginning 2021 Fantasy Soccer projections in February can really feel just a little foolish, even in a traditional yr. With commerce rumors swirling round Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson, and with a free agent class that features Aaron Jones, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, and Allen Robinson, it feels greater than just a little foolish heading into the 2021 offseason. Whereas it might be considerably foolish, diving into projections now additionally supplies worth. This preliminary run of projections will look little or no just like the completed product in early September, however there are a couple of shocking truths that caught out anyway. Listed here are 5 early observations from the primary run of my 2021 projections.
1. Mahomes to interrupt the mould?
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 3.8 extra Fantasy factors per recreation than another energetic quarterback because the begin of 2018. My preliminary projections for Mahomes have him at 4,900 yards and 40 touchdowns. If that is not ridiculous sufficient, he is projected to outscore each different quarterback by 50 Fantasy factors. Projections, by their very nature, aren’t supposed to provide these sorts of outliers. But it surely’s precisely the type of outlier Mahomes has been.
His 16-game tempo over the previous three seasons is for 4,931 yards and 41 touchdowns. In any given yr there could also be one other quarterback who pops up and outscores Mahomes, however two of the previous three years he is been higher than 29 Fantasy factors per recreation and nobody else goes to get near that type of expectation. The one yr Mahomes wasn’t elite (he was nonetheless superb) he performed with a banged-up Tyreek Hill half the yr and left one recreation because of an damage after 11 makes an attempt.
The true shocker is what this sort of projection means for Mahomes’ draft worth. Yearly we inform you to not draft a quarterback within the first two rounds. I can not make that advice presently. Value Based Drafting (VBD) is a well-liked formulation to make use of in figuring out when and the place gamers needs to be drafted throughout positions. It helps inform you what number of operating backs, broad receivers, and tight ends are price greater than the No. 1 quarterback as properly.
There are numerous completely different baselines you should use to find out worth; common starter, worst starter, common bench participant, or, because the linked article suggests, the variety of gamers at every place chosen within the high 100. Every of these baselines suggests Mahomes needs to be drafted within the high 18 picks. Half of them would peg Mahomes as a borderline first-round decide.
I have never determined precisely the place I am going to rank Mahomes in my preliminary 2021 rankings, however except one thing vital adjustments, he will probably be within my high 24.
2. Falcons passing recreation is on discover
Matt Ryan has averaged 617 move makes an attempt per yr over the previous three season. The Titans averaged 466 underneath Arthur Smith in Tennessee. It is needed to think about a much bigger juxtaposition than the offense Ryan has run the previous three seasons versus what Smith referred to as in Tennessee. As a rule, I am going to belief playcaller/coach tendencies over what the staff has performed previously. If that performs out in Atlanta it is unhealthy information for Ryan, and it isn’t nice for Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley both.
The obvious factor to level out is that the Falcons do not have Derrick Henry. It is unlikely Arthur Smith would feed Ito Smith and/or Qadree Ollison with the identical enthusiasm he fed Henry. However the free agent operating again class consists of guys like Jones, Chris Carson and James Conner and there isn’t any scarcity of gifted backs on this draft class both. It appears unlikely the Falcons would use the fourth total decide within the 2021 NFL Draft on a operating again, however decide 35 could possibly be the right spot to land a distinction maker.
If the Falcons make operating again an enormous precedence, then my preliminary projection of 516 move makes an attempt for them will keep near the place it’s. That retains Ryan out of the highest 18 quarterbacks and retains Ridley and Jones exterior of the highest 10 broad receivers. That is as a result of at their goal charge (23%) a drop of 100 move makes an attempt for the offense would price them 23 targets, which is greater than 40 Fantasy factors at their profession effectivity. The most important loser could possibly be Hayden Hurst, who could be a distant third within the pecking order and was a borderline starter even with a excessive quantity move assault.
To be clear, my preliminary projection could possibly be too low. Possibly we’ll hear extra out of Atlanta that makes us really feel higher in regards to the move quantity. Possibly they will not make operating again a lot of a precedence in free company or the draft. Till then, I will be out on the Falcons passing recreation at their anticipated price.
Quarterbacks are on the transfer this offseason and the projections have shifted. We have realized so much from quarterback stat projections during the last a number of seasons and Chris Towers broke down the key takeaways you should use to enhance your fantasy football recreation in 2021.
3. What Stafford’s arrival means for Rams WRs
Cooper Kupp averaged extra targets, catches, and yards per recreation than Robert Woods in 2020. Upgrading from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford ought to make each of the Rams broad receivers higher however I believe it is vital to rectify the notion that Woods had a fantastic yr and Kupp was a bust. The reality is, Woods obtained into the tip zone greater than Kupp, which isn’t one thing anybody ought to have seen coming.
In his first three years in Los Angeles, Woods had a 3.7% landing charge, which may be very low for a large receiver. Final yr, that quantity improved to 4.7%, a extra regular charge. Kupp had a 7.4% landing charge from 2017-2019, which plummeted to 2.4% final yr. For 2021, I’ve each Kupp and Woods projected for 130 targets, however Kupp is projected for yet one more rating.
After all, touchdowns aren’t the only real cause Woods outperformed Kupp final yr. Woods scored 27.5 Fantasy factors within the operating recreation. That is not one thing I usually wish to depend on for broad outs, but it surely was Woods’ third straight season with not less than 115 dashing yards. Kupp has by no means had greater than 33 yards on the bottom. For that cause, Woods remains to be projected for extra Fantasy factors within the first run of the 2021 projections, however the hole is way smaller than it was in 2020.
4. Johnson might proceed to be a sneaky worth
David Johnson was a top-15 PPR again on a per-game foundation in 2020. I do not actually know what to make of Johnson’s season in any respect, apart from the truth that he was an excellent No. 2 fantasy operating again when he was on the sector. His 4.7 yards per carry was a career-high and he continued to be properly above-average within the passing recreation, averaging 9.5 yards per reception. He solely had one recreation under 10 PPR Fantasy factors and he topped 19 Fantasy factors in a 3rd of his video games.
May the Texans tank their 2021 season by buying and selling Watson? Completely. May they lower Johnson to save lots of wage cap? Yep. May he disintegrate in his age 29 season? After all.
With all of these issues duly famous, Johnson got here in at No. 19 within the preliminary projections. My presumption is that will probably be significantly increased than the place he’s drafted. If the Texans maintain Johnson and discover a solution to mend issues with Watson, Johnson will probably be certainly one of my exceptions within the dreaded operating again lifeless zone.
5. What to make of the Panthers WRs
Curtis Samuel (14.14), D.J. Moore (14.1), and Robby Anderson (14.01) have been mainly equivalent on a per recreation foundation final yr in PPR. Just like the blurb above, I’ve combined emotions on this one. For one factor, Curtis Samuel is a free agent. For one more, it positive sounds just like the Panthers would favor to improve at quarterback. And the Panthers will hopefully have Christian McCaffrey for 16 video games in 2021. However there are a few takeaways.
First, Joe Brady’s offense actually emphasised the “unfold” within the unfold offense. Anderson, Moore, Samuel, and McCaffrey all averaged between 6.3 and eight.5 targets per recreation. Mike Davis noticed not less than 5 targets in 9 of his 15 video games. 4 completely different Panthers topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
Second, very similar to Kupp, I might anticipate Anderson to be a price on draft day due to his poor landing luck in 2020. Anderson owned a 5.2% profession landing charge heading into 2020, then he scored thrice on 136 targets (2.2%). Whereas a few of that could be a change in his function, I undertaking Anderson for extra scores in 2021 (and a top-25 end in each codecs).
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