WR Breakouts & the Historical Implications from 2020 (Fantasy Football)

I received’t lie… my job affords me to be interested by statistics. Piecing collectively our present docs for the Fantasy Footballers podcast offers me the chance to leap down the rabbit gap and ask the query: has anybody else ever executed this?

Utilizing historic comparisons when analyzing manufacturing is tremendous useful to present you a grid for what has been executed and is it an indicator for future success. Not too long ago, we’ve been discussing the TRUTH about Fantasy WRs in 2020 and after working via the information, there have been a few historic marks that I believed wanted to be shared.

I would like to present a shoutout to Stathead, the statistical analysis instrument for SportsReference.com. That is by far the simplest search engine to fill out all the precise standards I would like to start out getting interested by participant manufacturing. #NotaSponsor however I can not advocate extra extremely the advantage of getting a subscription there.

Justin Jefferson Setting the World on Fireplace

You possible know all about Jefferson breaking Anquan Boldin’s rookie receiving yards file. However to place 1,400 yards in perspective, listed here are all of the receivers since 1990 to place up 1,300 yards earlier than the age of 23:

What does this inform us? First off, dang how good was Josh Gordon? RIP for fantasy. Jefferson really has room to develop which is insane to say. His expectation based mostly on the yardage would’ve referred to as for nearer to 10 TDs. He may go the route of Juju the place I’d guess that his 2018 marketing campaign will go down as the most effective of his profession. He may take one other step ahead within the TD division. Regardless, we noticed the most effective rookie receiving seasons on a run-first offense that for a lot of the season he was the perceived WR2 on his personal group. Adam Thielen hogged all of the TDs (14) bolstered a league-leading 20(!) end-zone targets. I anticipate a few of that quantity to shift to Jefferson in Yr Two. Talking of two, we have to throw out the primary two weeks of the season…when teammate OLABISI JOHNSON OUTSNAPPED him! Okay sufficient yelling, Jefferson was the WR4 from Weeks 3 to 17. This isn’t a small pattern measurement or a few fortunate video games. He’s a 100-yard recreation ready to occur and based mostly on that rookie manufacturing profile, he’s a top-10 WR for me at this level.

Did Tyler Lockett Have the Worst 100 Catch Season Ever?

In the event you jumped aboard the rollercoaster generally known as Tyler Lockett in fantasy, you perceive the agony that 80 p.c of the yr introduced. He had the highest “bust fee” ever for top-10 WR for the reason that TRUTH sequence was birthed. In line with PFR’s Approximate Worth metric, Lockett’s season was 2nd worst ever for a participant with 100/1000/10+ in a season. In different phrases, he didn’t outperform traditionally these with related statistical markers. However after we take a look at the remainder of his profession, the uptick in general targets masked what really was happening: he was inefficient. Examine 2020 to Lockett’s earlier years and the stats don’t look so attractive.

What does this inform us? Lockett’s counting stats aren’t useful in deciphering his effectiveness. The roundedness of 100/1000/10 appears good however let’s unpack the way it actually occurred. Weeks 3, 7, and 17 accounted for 49% of his whole fantasy manufacturing.  For a participant with 1,000 yards to go over 100 solely twice is nuts. Russell Wilson and Lockett are so in-sync more often than not that their effectivity collectively has turn into virtually legendary. In 2018, Wilson had an ideal QB Ranking when focusing on him. Issues have slipped a bit as no-one may sustain that ridiculous tempo. However Lockett is coming into a contract yr so there may be extra at stake in 2021. Lockett’s finish of season top-10 end may trigger informal drafters to place extra inventory within the stats. However come draft season, his draft value may enter into WR15-20 vary which nonetheless makes him greater than palatable as your group’s WR2.

A.J. Brown Can’t Be Stopped

We began this offseason with a viral video the place A.J. Brown admitted that he performed of the yr with two bum knees after recording himself on his hospital mattress post-surgery. However did you discover out on the soccer area? No-one desires to deal with this man. The truth is, Brown has the 2nd highest Yards per Goal (11.19) for the first two years of a profession (135 goal min) in NFL historical past.

That’s proper, it’s former pace service provider Mike Wallace at #1. And in case you haven’t caught on, this text is principally an ode to Randy Moss. He reveals up in virtually each chart.

What does this inform us? Okay, you already know he’s a beast with the ball in his arms. However can we get the person extra targets? With Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith testing free company, we may see Brown break the 120-target barrier and take the subsequent step ahead among the many elites of fantasy. His draft price will likely be an intriguing story as soon as summer season hits if Tennessee decides to not add every other high-profiled go catchers in free company or the draft. Consider him as a younger Julio Jones. He is likely to be hobbled half the time he’s on the market however when this man will get a goal, it’s value its weight in gold.

Breaking Information: Juju Smith-Schuster Nonetheless is Younger

We all know, we all know… he’s nonetheless younger. For some time, Juju was the usual for WRs underneath the age of (insert no matter you need) to check with. Regardless of 2019’s full dumpster fireplace at QB and an up-and-down 2020, he’s nonetheless on tempo with different current historic children. By 4 seasons, he’s tied with Randy Moss for the 4th most receptions by a WR earlier than turning 25.

What does this inform us? Actually, you may go both approach with this one particularly as he’s about to hop groups as a free agent. You’ll be able to take that factoid and easily file it away as Juju’s star burned shiny at an early age. Possibly we’ve seen the most effective we’re ever going to see with this man. Sure, there is likely to be some maturity points however when it comes to long-term dynasty implications, Juju additionally may have one other 4-5 yr run prepared relying on the touchdown spot and scheme match. As a giant slot WR, he actually has to seek out himself in a state of affairs the place he can win persistently versus zone as a result of he’s been atrocious in one-on-one battles towards man protection. He’s additionally a quantity man which made him so particular his 2nd yr within the league when he noticed 166 targets. In dynasty, that is the proper time to commerce for Juju IF you assume he lands in a high-octane offense even on a nasty group. He possible will likely be dearer after he finds a brand new residence. The anomaly of “what’s he?” offers you the kind of low cost you need if it’s for the appropriate value.

MapleTron Has a Nostril for the Finish Zone

Maintain onto your shorts individuals. Chase Claypool is considered one of Mike “The Fantasy Hitman” Wright’s favourite gamers within the league and for good cause. With 11 whole TDs, he put himself in an elite group of rookie wideouts over the past decade with 11 whole TDs: Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr, Tyreek Hill & Claypool. That’s it. These guys are distinction makers on the place and we noticed it early on of their careers. He additionally completed this regardless of seeing restricted quantity on a Steelers group with Juju Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson greater within the pecking order. Listed here are the rookie wideouts with 9 or extra receiving TDs over the past decade on fewer than 65 receptions:

What does this inform us? That bodes effectively for the younger playmaker that at that younger of an age, he visited the end-zone and the Steelers noticed that it was an efficient a part of their gameplan as soon as he was utilized that approach. In his Week 5 4-TD explosion, it was clear Pittsburgh game-planned round getting the ball to Claypool on the slants and letting him take it to the home. I feel the most effective comparable for who Claypool may turn into in fantasy circles is Mike Evans. He’s a red-zone monster able to two TDs anytime he’s out on the sector however not simply as a post-up presence. Evans made his mark early-on with 50/50 balls from Jameis Winston. The QB play will likely be fascinating to see who pairs up with Claypool long-term. He additionally has one other younger WR on the opposite facet of the formation who calls for targets. Diontae Johnson had the best goal fee per snap within the NFL. With Juju out the door, it’s not inconceivable to assume Claypool sees 115+ targets in his second season.

Joe Sargent/Getty Photographs

Stealth Mode: Ceedee Lamb Flying Underneath the Radar

Maybe you forgot about Ceedee Lamb as Justin Jefferson‘s monstrous effort possible solid an enormous shadow over the Cowboys rookie wideout. By the primary 5 weeks of the season, he had a 16-game tempo of 93/1385/6. He already has cemented himself as one of many league’s premier slot wideouts rating 2nd in slot targets, receptions, and yards. However he additionally stands amongst an elite group of rookie wideouts with 70+ receptions and 900+ receiving yards over the past decade.

What does this inform us? This man was drafted within the 1st spherical for a cause. His manufacturing profile and Reception Perception article by Matt Harmon screamed that he’s going to be a WR1 on this league. The opposite choices in Dallas cloud a few of our imaginative and prescient which is why his ADP (WR37 / 8.06) made him the WR3 behind Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. However he appeared like he was on an historic tempo with Dak via that 1st month and with the hopes that Dak is again in 2021, I’ll gladly hitch a experience on the Lamb practice. In dynasty, he’s simply a top-15 WR for me and I may see that come to fruition in redraft leagues as effectively this yr. Consider 2020 as a constructing block to a participant that I’m bullish sufficient to hit 85/1100/7 however you possible can get him exterior the top-24 in drafts.

Can Somebody Purchase a TD for DJ?

D.J. Moore is as gifted a WR you’ll discover within the NFL particularly when you think about his manufacturing at this younger of an age. He’s gathered the tenth most receptions ever earlier than turning 24. However as you take a look at this gifted listing (which in fact has Randy Moss on it) he’s missing in a single main division for fantasy: touchdowns.

What does this inform us?  By three seasons, Moore has ten whole TDs. His expectation based mostly on his yardage is extra like 18 so there may be room for optimistic regression. However Teddy Bridgewater possible will likely be throwing him the rock for a minimum of yet another season in Carolina earlier than they might even take into consideration reducing him. Moore finds himself in an analogous place as Juju Smith-Schuster: a younger receiver with boatloads of receptions at such a younger age who’s coming into a contract yr. It’s loopy to assume this man is three years into the league and will likely be solely 24 when he’s able to hit a payday. Carolina definitely may lock him up with an extension this low season which additional boosts his dynasty inventory for my part. He’s slowly slipped in dynasty rankings to WR18 after being routinely a top-10 WR.

Burrow to Higgins is Going to Be a Factor

I wrote an article a few years in the past entitled Can Rookie QBs Sustain WR Production? as a chance to dive into the information over the past 20 years. However what about when a rookie QB is paired up with a rookie wideout? That would spell double bother and but Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow had a season the likes of we haven’t seen… since virtually a decade in the past in Cincinnati. I appeared on the high rookie QB/WR pairings yearly over the past decade:

Sure, I perceive it is a bit down the rabbit gap of statistical evaluation however having nostalgia for names like Corey Coleman and Dorial Inexperienced-Beckham is an opportunity to chuckle and/or cry from the dynasty roster spots these two destroyed.

What does this inform us? It isn’t regular or optimum for a rookie pairing for fantasy. And but, Higgins was greater than serviceable ending because the WRx. You can also take a look at his snap counts and see Weeks 1 and 17 weren’t precise video games that he labored with. Higgins did all of this in 14 video games performed. He’s one other man who was overshadowed by Justin Jefferson‘s greatness and but he was all the pieces the Bengals may’ve wished from their second-round draft decide. With A.J. Green and John Ross gone, Higgins and Tyler Boyd are going to command a ton of targets however solely a type of guys has the flexibility to win o 50/50 balls and be an end-zone difference-maker. Boyd led the group with 16 red-zone targets however solely 4 of these have been standing within the end-zone, the actual gold for fantasy. Higgins had seven such targets and can look to construct off of that in 2021. Joe Burrow‘s devastating damage casts a little bit of a shadow on this dynamic duo however I’ll take the dip and the amnesia fantasy managers might need over the low season. Higgins is a WR2 in fantasy ready to occur in 2021.