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Super Bowl LV between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs might be billed as a matchup between the best quarterback of all time and the younger participant who might in the future problem for that title. And rightfully so – Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes ranks as one of the crucial fascinating quarterback pairings in Tremendous Bowl historical past.
After all, as all of us perceive, Brady isn’t truly going to battle Mahomes immediately as soon as the sport begins. Brady’s foe will the Chiefs protection, which has allowed simply 20.5 factors per sport in its first two playoff contests. Within the Divisional Spherical, Kansas Metropolis held a Cleveland offense that had scored 48 factors in a Wild Card win at Pittsburgh to simply 17. The AFC Championship Sport introduced Josh Allen and a Buffalo staff that was second within the league in scoring throughout the common season, however the Chiefs held them to 24 factors.
In the meantime, the Buccaneers ranked third within the NFL in scoring throughout the common season and simply turned the primary staff in league historical past to attain 30-plus factors in three straight street playoff video games. Sure, the Buccaneers are using a successful streak of seven straight video games, however the Chiefs have gained 25 of their final 27, together with one in Tampa earlier this 12 months. And, sure, the Chiefs are again to defend their Tremendous Bowl title thanks largely to Mahomes, however the Kansas Metropolis protection is dotted with superstars, too.
So how do the Buccaneers add yet another win to their streak and yet another Lombardi Trophy to their foyer show in opposition to the hardest staff to beat over the previous two seasons? First, let’s check out how the Buccaneers’ offense matches up with the Chiefs’ protection. Later within the week, Employees Author Carmen Vitali will study the matchup between the Chiefs’ offense and Tampa Bay’s protection.
Carmen might be inspecting a matchup between the league’s top-ranked offense and sixth-ranked protection. On paper, the opposite matchup appears like extra of an edge for Tampa Bay, which is able to take the seventh-ranked offense into battle with the Sixteenth-ranked protection. (All rankings right here and going ahead are from the common season.) Tampa Bay scored the third-most factors within the league; Kansas Metropolis had the Eleventh-best scoring protection. The Bucs had been second in passing yards (to Kansas Metropolis); the Chiefs had been 14th in go protection. And so forth.
After all, this matchup goes effectively past these floor numbers. The very first thing to know about Steve Spagnuolo’s protection is that has been aggressive this 12 months. That is significantly true when it comes to blitzing, which Kansas Metropolis does rather a lot. Throughout the common season, the Chiefs introduced 5 or extra defenders on the quarterback on 39% of their snaps, the fourth-highest fee within the NFL, after which they upped that to 50% within the win over Cleveland to begin the playoffs.
Furthermore, the Chiefs aren’t afraid to tug out the max blitzes. Kansas Metropolis despatched six or extra defenders on the quarterback on 17% of their snaps throughout the common season which was greater than twice the league common of 8%. This may very well be a possibility for the Buccaneers, who’ve an offensive line enjoying at its highest stage of the complete season in January and a quarterback who has been working effectively below stress of late. Within the final 4 video games main as much as the NFC Championship tilt in Inexperienced Bay, Brady had averaged 8.0 yards per try, thrown three landing passes and no interceptions and compiled a passer ranking of 105.8.
The Chiefs’ stress fee, which was twenty third within the NFL, did not enhance a lot once they blitzed, rising from 22.6% with no blitz to 24.5% with further rushers. That latter quantity was fourth-worst within the NFL. When it comes to particular person rushers, the Chiefs’ most harmful weapon is defensive sort out Chris Jones, who led the staff with 7.5 sacks throughout the common season. Edge rusher Frank Clark had 6.0 throughout the common season and has added two extra within the playoffs. Jones led the Chiefs in QB pressures for the second season in a row (the Rams’ Aaron Donald is the one different inside lineman who has executed that) and has a team-best 10.0% stress fee. Clark, nonetheless, has seen his stress fee drop for a second straight season to a career-low 6.5%. General, the Chiefs ranked twentieth within the league in sacks generated per go play.
The Chiefs particularly wish to get aggressive with their safeties. Daniel Sorenson, who had 4 quarterback hits throughout the common season and two extra within the playoffs to this point, blitzed 78 instances in 2020, third-most amongst all NFL defensive backs. Versatile chess piece Tyrann Mathieu additionally blitzed 32 instances. The Buccaneers’ safety scheme has held up fairly effectively in opposition to the blitz within the playoffs, dealing with further rushers 32 instances and permitting 13 pressures and simply two sacks.
“I believe our offensive line and tight ends – they do not get sufficient recognition [for] how [well] they’re enjoying these previous couple of weeks and the safety has been excellent,” mentioned Head Coach Bruce Arians. “We missed one blitz pickup that led to an interception [in Green Bay]. That was in all probability the one unhealthy play. It was a five-star sport, and the five-star gamers ought to present up.”
Mathieu, who initially unlocked his versatile expertise below Arians in Arizona, continues to play at a famous person stage. Along with his blitzing, he led the staff with six interceptions this 12 months and has added one other one within the playoffs. Mathieu, whose pre-snap location warmth map on Subsequent Gen Stats appears like a Pollock portray, can line up wherever within the protection and canopy receivers, backs and tight ends. Throughout the common season, he held opposing quarterbacks to a 59.9 passer ranking when he was the closest defender.
The Chiefs’ go protection gave up 236.2 yards per sport and 6.78 yards per play, rating close to the center of the pack in these classes. Charvarius Ward, who principally performs left cornerback, wasn’t as efficient in 2020 as he was throughout a 2019 breakout season, as the previous undrafted free agent had simply six passes defensed and no picks and allowed a 102.8 passer ranking as the closest defender. However, rookie fourth-rounder L’Jarius Sneed has been an enormous asset for the Chiefs’ protection, primarily enjoying within the slot and making a giant distinction since getting back from a damaged collarbone in Week 11. He had six tackles and a sack within the AFC Championship Sport however did depart early resulting from a concussion.
Clearly, the Buccaneers’ offense has the pass-catching firepower to match up in opposition to an set of NFL defensive backs, significantly if Antonio Brown returns from his knee harm to play within the Tremendous Bowl. Assuming Sneed can get well over the subsequent two weeks, the matchup of him in opposition to Chris Godwin within the slot may very well be one of the crucial important within the sport. Godwin is coming off an enormous, 110-yard sport within the NFC Championship Sport and he was used extensively within the slot out of pre-snap movement. That is a component the Buccaneers have added more and more to their offense in current weeks.
Mike Evans, Scotty Miller and Brown might discover some excellent alternatives on the surface, and never simply because Ward has struggled to some extent. The Chiefs’ scheme is extraordinarily aggressive when it comes to press protection. Kansas Metropolis’s defensive backs pressed exterior receivers on 42% of their snaps throughout the common season, the very best fee within the NFL and double the league common of 21%. Ward, specifically, led the NFL by using press protection on 65% of his matchups on the surface; Bashaud Breeland, who performs nearly solely on the proper aspect of the protection, was second within the league with a 56% press protection fee.
The Buccaneers might be able to get some massive performs within the passing sport by beating this press protection. The Chiefs have allowed extra downfield completions since their Week 10 bye, giving up a minimum of 100 yards on such performs in seven of eight video games by the Divisional Spherical. In the meantime, the Buccaneers proceed to up their aggression in downfield passing, to excellent impact. Brady’s passes in Inexperienced Bay final Sunday traveled a mean of 11.5 yards within the air, his second-highest mark of the complete season. The Buccaneers obtained 160 yards and three touchdowns out of vertical routes, although Brady was additionally picked off thrice. A type of interception, as famous above, was the results of a missed blitz pickup. Because the Chiefs are nearly certain to blitz within the Tremendous Bowl, the Bucs have to be sound of their go safety in opposition to further rushers with a view to absolutely unlock their downfield passing potential.
Kansas Metropolis’s run protection gave up 122.1 yards per sport and 4.51 yards per carry to rank twenty first and seventeenth in these classes, respectively. Sorenson, the staff’s main tackler, is powerful in run assist and Anthony Hitchens is an lively linebacker in the midst of the sphere. The Chiefs’ line emphasizes attending to the passer, leaving a variety of the run-stopping work to the linebackers. Kansas Metropolis appeared to shore up their run protection within the season’s second half, occurring a run of permitting 89 or fewer yards in 5 of six weeks. Nonetheless, over the past three video games, the Chiefs have gone again to permitting 125.3 yards per sport.
That is one other space during which the Buccaneers’ offensive method and strengths might work effectively in opposition to Kansas Metropolis. Tampa Bay runs the ball extra successfully between the tackles however the Chiefs’ protection has been stronger on the perimeters. Throughout the common season, the Chiefs allowed 93 fewer dashing yards than anticipated (RYOE) on runs exterior the sort out, in accordance with Subsequent Gen Stats. That was third-best within the NFL. Nonetheless, the Chiefs additionally had a plus-108 RYOE on runs between the tackles, which was eighth-worst within the league.
Lastly, the Buccaneers have good matchup, a minimum of on paper, once they get into the purple zone. Tampa Bay scored touchdowns on 68.9% of their purple zone incursions throughout the season to rank seventh within the NFL in that class. They dipped in that regard to begin the playoffs, with solely 4 touchdowns of their first 11 purple zone drives in Washington and New Orleans, however they had been two-for-two in Inexperienced Bay. In the meantime, the Chiefs’ protection ranked final within the NFL throughout the common season with a purple zone landing fee of 76.6% allowed.
After all, even with Patrick Mahomes and an extremely potent offense, the Chiefs would not have gained 25 of their final 27 video games with a protection that wasn’t holding its personal. As one would anticipate from a staff enjoying in its second straight Tremendous Bowl, Kansas Metropolis is loaded with expertise on either side of the ball and is directed by a powerful teaching workers. And, in fact, we have already seen this matchup as soon as this season, in a Week 12 sport at Raymond James Stadium gained by the Chiefs, 27-24. Tampa Bay’s offense picked up 417 yards in that sport however the overwhelming majority of these yards got here within the second half after Kansas Metropolis constructed a 20-7 halftime lead. The Bucs comeback obtained shut however ran out of time, partially as a result of each Mathieu and Breeland got here up with large interceptions within the third quarter.
“That sport was one the place I believe we had been down 17 after which we got here storming again,” mentioned Arians. “Simply could not get the ball again. It needs to be a extremely good sport. They are a hell of a soccer staff they usually’re tremendous effectively coached by Andy [Reid] and his entire crew – ‘Spags’ and all people. [They have] nice gamers, so it needs to be enjoyable.”
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