Early returns on James Harden and more

Particular to Yahoo Sports activities

We’re now previous the one-month mark within the NBA season, and whereas the standings are starting to come into full view, there’s nonetheless loads of uncertainty in the case of fantasy basketball. A mix of accidents and COVID-19 problems proceed to go away managers scrambling to fill roster spots each week, making it troublesome to really discern whether or not a group is sweet, dangerous, or simply plain unfortunate.

As standard, we’ll dive into a number of the prime fantasy storylines across the league this week, however first …

Weekly COVID-19 Replace

As has grow to be customary this season, we now have to begin with a COVID-19 replace. Coming into the week, a number of groups have been nonetheless coping with virus points, however solely a few video games — Kings/Grizzlies on Monday; Grizzlies/Bulls on Wednesday — had been postponed.

That modified Monday night when the league introduced it will postpone Monday night time’s Spurs/Pelicans matchup lower than two hours earlier than the scheduled tip-off. It’s nonetheless unclear precisely what triggered the postponement, however initial reports indicated that non-team-members of each touring events had probably been uncovered to the virus. As of Tuesday afternoon, it’s unclear if San Antonio or New Orleans may have extra video games postponed in Week 6.

• Each Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are anticipated to overlook a number of video games after touchdown on COVID-19 protocols Monday night. Particulars are scarce, however neither participant made the journey to Atlanta for Tuesday’s sport, which marks the beginning of a six-game Jap Convention highway swing. The pair could rejoin the team in some unspecified time in the future in the course of the highway journey, however the expectation proper now could be that they’ll miss most, if not all, of Week 6. Start line guard Patrick Beverley is also set to miss a string of games as a consequence of a knee challenge.

• The Wizards returned to play over the weekend, with Sunday’s loss to the Spurs marking their first motion since Jan. 11. Bradley Beal shined with 31 factors, seven rebounds, and 4 assists, however the Wizards had solely three gamers in double-figures within the 20-point blowout. Russell Westbrook’s struggles continued, as he completed with an unpleasant 9 factors on 3-of-11 capturing to go together with eight rebounds, six assists, and 4 turnovers in 25 minutes.

• Boston lastly bought Jayson Tatum again from the league’s well being and security protocols on Monday night time. Tatum confirmed few indicators of rust, ending with 24 factors, 5 assists, and 4 rebounds in 31 minutes because the Celtics cruised to a 119-103 victory over Chicago. Tatum had not performed since Jan. 8, although as a consequence of a number of postponements he missed solely 5 video games throughout that span.

• Karl-Anthony Cities stays out for Minnesota after he examined optimistic for the virus again on Jan. 15. He’s and not using a clear timetable, however there’s some hope that Cities might be again on the ground as early as Friday night time in opposition to Philadelphia. Cities has appeared in simply 4 of the Timberwolves’ 16 video games to this point.

Early returns: James Harden in Brooklyn

Story continues

With Harden enjoying his sixth sport in a Nets uniform Monday night time — and fourth alongside Kyrie Irving — we now have an honest pattern from which to guage his fantasy manufacturing. Since arriving in Brooklyn, Harden is averaging 23.0 factors, 11.3 assists, 7.3 rebounds, 2.7 threes, and 1.2 steals per sport, although he’s performed 40 or extra minutes in half of these contests. On a per-game foundation, his numbers are about even together with his rocky, eight-game Rockets pattern (most likely not the best reflection of his true stat profile), however his scoring, free throws per sport, and total utilization are down significantly in comparison with previous seasons.

From 2017-18 by way of 2019-20, Harden had a median utilization fee of 37.7 %, peaking at a borderline-ridiculous 40.5 % in 2018-19. He led the league in utilization (clearly) throughout that span, ending more than four percentage points higher than the next-highest-usage participant (Giannis Antetokounmpo).

To this point in Brooklyn, Harden’s utilization fee sits at simply 25.9 %, his lowest determine since his remaining season with the Thunder in 2011-12. That quantity puts him in the same range as gamers like Gordon Hayward, Malcolm Brogdon, Jimmy Butler, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Regardless of the heavy minutes load, he’s taking greater than seven fewer pictures per sport (and 5 fewer threes per sport) in comparison with final season, so the decline is smart. Harden remains to be attending to the road at an excellent fee, however with significantly fewer drives to the basket, he’s taking solely 7.5 free throws per sport — down from a career-high 11.8 a yr in the past. His six-year reign because the league’s chief in free throws might very nicely come to an finish.

Whereas Harden’s scoring is down, his passing is on par with what we’ve come to anticipate from the perennial MVP contender. Presently main the league in assists per sport (10.8), Harden is on tempo to common double-digit dimes for simply the second time in his profession. His help fee since arriving in Brooklyn (40.2 %) is strictly the identical as his determine from his remaining three seasons in Houston.

All in all, Harden will proceed to be an especially worthwhile fantasy participant, although it’s a bit shocking how a lot he’s been prepared to defer to Durant and, particularly Irving, to this point. That would all the time change because the season progresses, however for now, Harden seems content material to serve extra as a facilitator and secondary scorer than the everything-runs-through-me man we got here to know in Houston.

Capela on the rise

During the last two weeks in nine-category Yahoo leagues, no participant has been extra worthwhile than Clint Capela. Considerably of a forgotten commodity after lacking a big chunk of final season as a consequence of harm, Capela has resurfaced in Atlanta and enters Tuesday averaging 14.2 factors, 14.5 rebounds, and a pair of.3 blocks per contest. After placing up a large 27-point, 26-rebound, five-block line in opposition to Detroit final Wednesday, Capela adopted up with 13 factors, 19 boards, and 10 blocks in simply half-hour of a win over Minnesota. Over his final 4 video games, he’s posted 22.0 factors, 18.8 boards, 5.5 blocks, and 1.3 steals.

In fact, the rub with Capela is his free-throw capturing, which is simply as poor this season (54.9% FT) because it’s been for his complete profession. Capela has vacillated between 53 and 63 % over the past 5 seasons, so a mid-career enchancment doesn’t seem doubtless. However even with that ugly quantity (on a career-high 3.9 FTA/G), Capela ranks contained in the top-35 in nine-category codecs.

Not dangerous for a participant with a preseason ADP outdoors of the highest 60.

Vucevic’s scorching begin

Has there been a extra under-appreciated fantasy participant within the final decade than Nikola Vucevic? During the last eight years, Vucevic has by no means completed decrease than 52nd in per-game worth (eight class), and he has 4 top-35 seasons, together with sixteenth total in 2018-19, to his title. The 30-year-old has taken his manufacturing up a notch this season, at the moment holding career-highs in factors, steals, and made threes per sport, in addition to three-point proportion.

He added the skin shot to his sport a number of years in the past, however his quantity has elevated dramatically. After launching 4.7 threes per sport in 2019-20, Vucevic has cranked it as much as 6.4 makes an attempt this season, leading to 2.8 makes per sport. For context, Kevin Durant and James Harden are each hitting 2.9 threes per game.

All of this has resulted in Vucevic rating because the second-most worthwhile fantasy participant to this point in nine-category leagues (complete worth). Having not missed any video games, Vucevic isn’t fairly as excessive in per-game worth, however he nonetheless ranks ninth total, forward of Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis, and Stephen Curry. Apart from a slight regression in three-point effectivity, nothing Vucevic is doing feels unsustainable. The Magic are down two starters (Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz) for the stability of the season, so Vucevic ought to proceed to function the clear No. 1 choice on offense.

Mitchell Robinson: Succeeding regardless of a (relative) lack of blocks

Fantasy managers lastly bought their want when Robinson was put in because the full-time beginning heart to start the season. Whereas his standing as a top-60 participant in nine-category leagues (per-game worth) is about according to expectations, it’s value noting that Robinson’s shot-blocking hasn’t been almost as prolific as most anticipated it will be with elevated minutes.

Regardless of enjoying a career-high 29.6 minutes per sport — up from 23.1 a yr in the past — Robinson is obstructing a career-low 1.7 pictures per sport, and his block proportion has tumbled to only 5.6 %. That’s nonetheless good for seventh within the NBA, but it surely’s nearer to James Wiseman/DeAndre Jordan territory than it’s Robinson’s off-the-charts 2018-19 (10.0%) and 2019-20 (8.0%) figures. By means of 18 appearances, he has solely three video games with greater than two blocks (18 complete video games) after reaching that feat in 22 of 61 video games a season in the past.

Robinson can also be posting career-lows in field-goal proportion (65.5%) and free-throw proportion (46.4%), however he’s attending to the road fewer than twice per sport, so the latter determine hasn’t been overly damaging. He’s insulated his worth with strong steals (career-best 1.2 SPG) and rebounds (career-best 8.4 RPG) manufacturing, however as is the case with blocks, Robinson’s per-possession numbers are nothing particular. His complete rebound proportion is all the way down to 14.6 % (16.2% final season), and his defensive rebound proportion has additionally fallen (15.1%, down from 18.8%), doubtless as a byproduct of Julius Randle’s emergence as one of many league’s finest quantity rebounders.

All of that is to say that Robinson hasn’t essentially lived as much as expectations as an ultra-high-volume shot-blocker, however he’s nonetheless managed to be a really strong fantasy commodity. For those who consider he can transfer nearer to his profession averages by way of per-possession rebounding and shot-blocking, Robinson might truly be an undervalued participant to focus on in trades.

Mike Conley’s bounce-back season

Managers who purchased low on Conley after a disastrous 2019-20 season have been rewarded to this point. By means of 16 video games, Conley has regarded far more just like the participant Utah thought it was getting when it acquired the veteran through commerce in June of 2019. He ranks forty eighth total in per-game worth (9 class) behind averages of 16.4 factors, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals and a career-high 2.9 made threes per sport whereas capturing career-highs from each the sector (46.3%) and from three (42.2%).

The latter two numbers might regress because the yr goes on, however any decline could be offset by a development on the free-throw line, the place Conley is capturing a career-worst 71.4 %. Over the earlier 9 seasons, Conley by no means dipped under 80 %, so it’s doubtless simply an early season droop. The (comparatively) excellent news for fantasy managers is that Conley is just attending to the road 2.6 occasions per sport — his lowest determine since 2011-12.

The battle for Rookie of the Yr

Our associates at the BetMGM Sportsbook have LaMelo Ball (-186) put in because the slight Rookie of the Yr favourite, with Tyrese Haliburton (+325) second. James Wiseman (+600), Anthony Edwards (+1300), Immanuel Quickley (+2000), and even Cole Anthony (+2000) are nonetheless within the combine, however with roughly 1 / 4 of the season full, it’s shortly turning right into a two-man race.

Haliburton hit a little bit of a rut earlier within the month, totaling simply 18 factors, eight boards, and 9 assists over a three-game stretch from Jan. 15 by way of Jan. 20, however he bounced again with 16 factors, 5 rebounds, two assists, two steals and a career-high 4 blocks within the Kings’ final contest (Jan. 22 vs. NYK) earlier than a pair of COVID-19 postponements. The Twelfth-overall choose leads all rookies (min. 200 MP) in win shares, VORP, and offensive score, whereas rating second (behind Quickley) in each PER and field plus/minus.

In the meantime, Ball has run a bit extra hot-and-cold of late after starting the month of January on hearth. Over his final seven video games, Ball is capturing simply 35.1 % from the sector and 25.0 % from three, however he’s nonetheless offering 9.1 factors, 5.7 boards, and 5.9 assists. Amongst rookies, he ranks fourth in win shares, third in PER, second in VORP, fourth in field plus/minus, second in defensive score, and first (by a mile) in help fee.

Right here’s how the numbers stack up on a per-game foundation:

Ball: 24.6 MPG, 11.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 1.4 3PM/G, 40.1% FG, 31.2% 3PT, 66.7% FT

Haliburton: 28.0 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 2.2 3PM/G, 50.4% FG, 47.0% 3PT, 81.8% FT

In fact, lots will change between now and June, however the Rookie of the Yr race is extremely shut on the quarter-season mark. Haliburton has a major edge in effectivity, however Ball’s counting stats are higher in fewer minutes, and he’s had extra “I have to ship this to the group chat instantly” moments. If the votes have been forged right now, it will doubtless come all the way down to a matter of choice, with no apparent appropriate reply.