Is JuJu Smith-Schuster Still a Fantasy WR1?

There’s numerous stuff occurring there. Let’s break it down a bit so it is simpler to digest:

• JuJu, together with Diontae Johnson, has principally been utilized in short-to-mid go areas (0-9 yards downfield). He has been focused 16 occasions in that 10-yard span, with only one true deep go thrown his approach (he did not catch it).
• JuJu, although enjoying principally off the slot, has but to be focused within the center zone of the sphere at 10+ yards of distance, and he is the one Steelers pass-catcher missing targets in three areas by distance/course (Ebron is the one different participant with no focused area–deep proper).
• JuJu’s catch fee of 87.5% is by far the very best of all 4 gamers included within the chart above. In reality, he is solely missed on catching one brief/mid go and his two different non-completions all went for 10+ yards.
• Digging even deeper, we see how the 2 lengthy passes he missed (right-side of the sphere, downfield) had Anticipated Completion Percentages under 50% (35%, and 46%), so it’s not that these have been going to be straightforward completions in any case.

A lot of the issues of JuJu’s fantasy manufacturing, although, may be noticed trying on the field-breakdown that’s in the course of the chart (third column: Avg. rePPR):

• JuJu is producing the second-most PPR factors of Pittsburgh on that 0-to-9 space, behind TE Eric Ebron.
• JuJu’s downfield manufacturing seems to be nice at 5.2 PPR in 10-to-20+ yards passes, however he is solely been focused 4 occasions there. Johnson, however, is producing 9.4 PPR there whereas being focused much more in these deep spots.
• Chase Claypool has been a beast of his personal in deep routes and targets, principally because of his W5 historic efficiency.
• Given how manufacturing is being shared between all Pittsburgh gamers, and though JuJu has caught passes throughout the sphere (after which some), he is removed from essentially the most used participant of the staff in mid- (Ebron and Johnson) and deep-routes (Claypool and Johnson). These passes, if accomplished, hand the very best fantasy-points per play compared to brief ones (within the 0-to-9 yards clip)
• JuJu’s is making his injury in locations and depth have been the fantasy upside is sort of restricted, having to go for additional yards after the catch himself with a purpose to actually rack up excessive fantasy tallies.

Increased Function, More durable Competitors

One other necessary level to have in consideration when JuJu’s manufacturing is the truth that, because the supposed WR1 of his staff (a minimum of on paper), opponents are (nearly) at all times going to throw their greatest cornerbacks towards him week after week, forcing JuJu’s into the toughest of coverages to beat on a recreation foundation.

The great factor for JuJu, although, is that he is Pittsburgh’s slot receiver each left and proper to the ball and barely does he lineup on the skin. He has 178 snaps within the slot (78%) in comparison with simply 46 exterior (20%). PFF Grades over the 2020 season, solely 5 slot-corners rank contained in the top-25 on the place this 12 months, which bodes effectively for slot receivers like JuJu.

Per PlayerProfiler.com, these have been JuJu’s recreation logs this season, together with the cornerback tasked with masking him for the most important variety of snaps in every of these matches.

Let’s take a look at every of these individually, simply to know a little bit bit extra about them and the way they may have impacted JuJu’s upside:

• Darnay Holmes is a rookie, and his first project within the NFL was JuJu (not good for the Large). Up to now via 5 weeks of play, Holmes has 13 tackles however simply two passes defended. It was going to be a cupcake of a matchup for Smith-Schuster, and it was certainly his greatest recreation of the season catching each goal and scoring two touchdowns.
• Essang Bassey can also be a freshman this season, and as soon as extra he could not do something to cease JuJu, who completed with 7-of-8 caught targets, solely lacking on a red-zone one. However this marked the primary letdown in JuJu’s season, and it got here when lined by a low-end CB like Bassey (45.7 PFF Grade, 71st amongst CBs). Unhealthy outlook.
• Eric Murray is the very best nook JuJu has confronted as much as Week 5. Murray is the Twenty second-best CB per PFF Grades, and one in all solely 5 slot-corners inside the general cornerback rankings. JuJu improved his W2 rating, however might solely catch 4 passes for 43 yards. He scored a landing, although, so I am undecided this might be labeled as a dud given the manufacturing and competitors.
• Nickell Robey-Coleman, though having dropped from seasons prior in PFF Grade (61st-best CB this 12 months), remains to be a stud slot-corner and he restricted JuJu to his worst final result of the season at simply 6.8 PPR factors on 4-of-5 receptions.

Even enjoying on the slot position–which means avoiding top-dog CBs in most cases–JuJu has solely been in a position to actually benefit from one cover-man in his 4 video games (he was a rookie making his NFL debut) whereas having one other comparatively good recreation towards stud Eric Murray in Week 3.

 

Will JuJu Produce At WR1-Degree Going Ahead? The Verdict

The equation all of us need to resolve, am I proper? And the reply is completely in Pittsburgh’s palms, people.

Why? As a result of JuJu Smith-Schuster is producing as a WR1, whereas used as a WR2–at greatest.

Typically in fantasy soccer, conserving issues and evaluation easy is one of the simplest ways to go. And that’s simply a few issues associated to the 5 weeks of play already within the books and the way JuJu has accomplished in them… solely in a few easy metrics. That’s all we have to have a good suggestion of what has gone unsuitable with him.

I’ll use two numbers right here: Anticipated Factors, and Fantasy Factors Over Expectation. Here’s a plot together with each receiver with a minimum of 4 video games performed and 20 targets on the 2020 season. JuJu is highlighted in yellow.

As you see, not many receivers have been put in such a place as JuJu by way of anticipated factors via Week 5. JuJu’s EP (39.3) over that span rank forty ninth among the many 70 certified WRs. His FPOE (20.5), however, are eleventh in that very same interval. Do you see what’s taking place right here?

We’ve got gone via numerous stuff within the sections above, and we already knew that JuJu has appeared fairly good at catching each ball thrown his approach, that he is used principally in short-pass performs leaving a lot of the work to him to do after the catch, and that he is been actually environment friendly via 5 weeks each towards dangerous and good corners.

EP/FPOE, we will affirm our early takeaways. It’s not that JuJu is not enjoying as a WR1, it’s that Pittsburgh isn’t placing him able the place he can rack up WR1 fantasy factors. So simple as that.

Right here is the chart above, now displaying the EP/FPOE per goal as an alternative of the uncooked quantity over the season (min. 4 video games performed, 20 targets).

That, my mates, is exactly how you do not use a WR1. Test the names of the gamers highlighted within the chart. Chase Claypool and Justin Jefferson have had one and two explosive video games respectively which have their FPOE marks above the sky. Apart from them, solely D.K. Metcalf and D.J. Chark are getting used as a WR1 and producing at unimaginable ranges of effectivity.

JuJu, whereas the fifth-most environment friendly participant on a FPOE/TGT foundation, is simply not used how he ought to given his dominant manufacturing.

Whereas nobody is right here to argue about Diontae Johnson’s viability because the Steelers no. 1 receiver (he very effectively can play that position), the reality is that JuJu has completely overperformed Johnson up to now. JuJu is posting up 0.85 extra FP/TGT than anticipated, whereas Johnson is at -0.17 via Week 5.

All of this will get magnified by JuJu’s personal work on the sphere together with his spectacular yardage after the catch, which makes his “low” utilization much more puzzling.

JuJu has the second-highest YAC% amongst receivers with 20+ targets in a minimum of 4 video games mixed. In just about two of every three catches, he is racking up extra yards after the catch than via the air. Think about if he might add that yardage to longer, downfield completions.

Pittsburgh has a WR1 one in its roster, but the Steelers are utilizing him in locations, conditions, and roles akin to these of Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, or Curtis Samuel.

JuJu is the true deal, however Smith-Schuster is simply restricted in what he can do on the sphere so far as his utilization goes. It is time to #FreeJuJu, and let him pair his personal exploits (take a look at his Tenth-best FPOE, and his RACR-rank–Receiver Air Conversion Ratio: what number of receiving yards a participant creates for each air yard thrown at him–in the determine under, which is the third-best within the NFL) with a greater placement of passes liable to generate extra fantasy factors per goal (as an alternative of that putrid 54th rank in EP via W5…).

Conclusion: Take into account JuJu a WR1 even when his complete FP aren’t nonetheless there, full cease, and hope he and Pittsburgh can discover a widespread approach to profit from one another and unleash his true upside as we get deeper into the season. The whole lot is there for the Steelers to use, and it is solely a matter of time Huge Ben involves his senses, Mike Tomlin schemes extra long-ball throws to JuJu and Smith-Schusters amps up his fantasy factors for the GMs rostering him.

If you should purchase low on JuJu in a commerce, go for it. Pittsburgh is already previous its bye week and faces the second, eighth, and third-worst defenses towards huge receivers (in fantasy factors allowed to the place) in three of the following 4 weeks, and two of these groups (Dallas and Tennessee) have slot-corners ranked among the many 16-worst up to now this season (Tennesse’s Chris Jackson is absolutely the worst CB in 2020 via W5, regardless of the alignment).

It simply cannot go unsuitable.

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