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Eight groups stay within the NFL playoffs as we head into arguably the most exciting weekend on the league’s calendar. The playoffs this yr are a research in contrasts; a handful of groups clinging desperately to the ultimate years (or possibly video games) of their franchise quarterbacks’ careers and a handful of groups excitedly rubbing their fingers collectively on the prospect of a few years to come back with their under-25 star sign callers. Now that the weak hyperlinks have been plucked from the sphere, we’re left with a handful of groups which can be (largely) able to occurring a run to the Tremendous Bowl.
Right here, we’ll rank their possibilities of doing so, explaining somewhat bit concerning the how and why alongside the way in which.
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports activities
1. Inexperienced Packers
Greatest key to profitable all of it: Why am I so assured in Inexperienced Bay versus the Chiefs or the Saints? Two causes, each of which should do particularly with how the Packers would match up in opposition to the defending Tremendous Bowl champions. In 2019, Andy Reid and the Chiefs confronted a gentle eating regimen of groups operating the brand of offensive football that has been popularized by Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco however advanced upon by the likes of Matt LaFleur in Inexperienced Bay and Arthur Smith in Tennessee. Of the Chiefs’ worst defensive efficiency within the 2019 season, two of the bottom by way of Anticipated Factors Added (or eliminated) defensively had been in opposition to Inexperienced Bay and Tennessee (in addition they misplaced to each groups within the common season earlier than beating the Titans within the playoffs). It’s a system that may problem the guts of what the Chiefs’ protection does nicely at its most elementary tenants, however it’s also piloted by the masterful Aaron Rodgers, who’s having the kind of season that’s tough for all of us to disregard.
I’m additionally making a giant wager on defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, whose unit was pantsed by the 49ers within the convention championship sport a yr in the past. They completed the yr fifteenth defensively in Soccer Outsiders’s DVOA metric, which takes under consideration situational occurrences and the energy of an opponent. Nonetheless, his historical past of simulated stress defenses and the education he has in that self-discipline may successfully speedbump the Chiefs if given the chance. The Packers’ QB stress numbers are down from a yr in the past however I’m wondering if Pettine can name upon his previous, which traditionally confirmed a capability to hurry the passer organically and from each spot on the sphere. That’s key for managing Patrick Mahomes; getting after him with a mix of each measurement and velocity.
What may go mistaken?: As we talked about earlier than, there are defensive vulnerabilities. Every of the remaining opponents within the NFC Inexperienced Bay may face after the Rams have regular veteran quarterbacks and devastating offensive ability units. Past Jaire Alexander, whose standout 2020 yielded an opposing quarterback completion share of 51.3% and an opposing quarterback score of 67.4, the Packers are going to have a tougher time eradicating groups deeper at broad receiver from the sport.
2. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Greatest key to profitable all of it: Simply being the Chiefs. Placing them No. 1 on this checklist can be the simple factor to do, if solely due to the way in which they successfully jogged by their worst moments this yr and remained unscathed. That is an offense so subconsciously skilled that most of the tough in-game conditions groups face are completely routine for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. All of this we all know. Nonetheless, certainly one of their finest belongings would possibly really be the elevation in play they’ve gotten from surprising locations this season, particularly guys like L’Jarius Sneed, who since Week 13, has carved out a bigger function for himself on protection and has proven versatility in each the slot and as a large nook.
What may go mistaken? My sole hesitation in placing the Chiefs No. 1 on this checklist is the sheer issue and improbability of profitable two Tremendous Bowls in a row. I don’t know if this meritless statistic can someway counterbalance a crew that basically had one loss this yr and is tearing by the league with probably the most environment friendly offense we’ve seen in fashionable NFL historical past. They didn’t have a sport this yr with a damaging EPA offensively however … however! … they did have a few of their worst video games offensively in opposition to groups that both had an distinctive pass-rushing presence or a deep, versatile set of defensive backs. There are a number of groups like that remaining within the discipline proper now.
3. New Orleans Saints
Greatest key to profitable all of it: I just like the Saints for a number of causes, however nearly all of them begin with their protection. Their divisional weekend opponent, Tom Brady, had by far his worst slate of video games in opposition to New Orleans this season, with a mean PFF grade 30 factors decrease when going through the Saints. In each contests, Brady was basically shut out of utilizing the deepest 25% of the sphere. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore additionally tends to play exceptionally nicely in opposition to Mike Evans (9 catches on 20 targets over seven video games). New Orleans has elite gamers at each section of its protection and with gamers like Sheldon Rankins approaching on the proper time, its fleet of pass-rushers may evolve from disruptive to one of many nice, revered playoff defenses in current NFL historical past.
What may go mistaken?: That’s a loaded query for the Saints, proper? Of their losses this season, they’ve struggled to maintain tempo offensively in shootouts, which is an odd distinction for a crew led by Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Over the ultimate seven weeks of the season, New Orleans’s protection has taken a pronounced lead in dictating its successes and failures, whereas the Saints’ offense has settled right into a middle-of-the-pack efficiency. Their Anticipated Factors Added from Weeks 10 to 17 are extra according to the Vikings, Texans, Colts and Browns than the NFL’s prime, elite offenses.
4. Buffalo Payments
Greatest key to profitable all of it: It’s a good time to be a Bills fan. They’re driving the longest profitable streak within the NFL, Josh Allen scratched his manner into the MVP dialog and there’s a sound argument to be made that Buffalo is among the three finest offenses within the NFL this yr. They’re a matchup-generating nightmare that has picked aside opponents this season and created snug throws for his or her creating quarterback. If their offense can survive this weekend in opposition to a particularly versatile entrance—comparable defenses have resulted in a few of Buffalo’s tightest video games this season—it’s tough to see what, exterior of an exciting shootout, goes to cease the Payments.
What may go mistaken?: I believe if the Payments’ protection permits Lamar Jackson to get right into a rhythm throwing the soccer, which might power them to lighten the field with the intention to get assist to their secondary, Buffalo’s season will likely be over this weekend. The Payments’ protection struggles to cease the run when undermanned within the field, which is an attention-grabbing observe from NFL’s Subsequent Gen Stats, whereas the Ravens rely on opponents lightening the field to allow them to hammer groups with their super-potent speeding assault (despite the fact that their steady of operating backs are additionally fairly efficient in opposition to eight-man containers or larger). Buffalo’s protection has tightened significantly down the stretch this season however reverted to outdated habits in opposition to the Colts. Solely a handful of groups in NFL historical past allowed 470 or extra yards of complete offense and received a wild-card playoff sport.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Greatest key to profitable all of it: The Buccaneers are a type of groups that might barrel their option to the Tremendous Bowl and make us all remorse the obviousness of it, or a crew that might catastrophically present its age on the worst second and flame out unexpectedly. If we didn’t see a number of signature lows this season in opposition to elite competitors, this is able to be out of the query. Nonetheless, the Buccaneers’ marriage of what Tom Brady is most snug with and what Bruce Arians has traditionally executed nicely was not with out its rising pains. No staple of Arians’s offense explains that higher than Brady’s wild successes and failures within the deep passing sport. There have been weeks of complete ineffectiveness adopted by stretches of historic efficiency. If we are able to get the latter, once more, a giant ask in opposition to New Orleans, I’d warning the remainder of the league.
What may go mistaken?: Greater than Brady, if their protection buckles it is perhaps too tough for the Buccaneers to climate a visit to the championship sport. Devin White’s return is a constructive and nearly ensures the league’s prime speeding protection stays damaging whilst their opponents get higher, even in opposition to a Saints crew that has been marvelous at selecting aside groups on inside runs this yr. Nonetheless, Tampa has displayed some vulnerabilities in opposition to the go this season and a classic efficiency by the likes of Brees and a more healthy Michael Thomas may throw a wrench of their plans.
6. Baltimore Ravens
Greatest key to profitable all of it: I may see a postseason run in Baltimore that makes a variety of NFL groups really feel foolish. I appreciated a bit executed by NFL Community’s Peter Schrager on Baltimore’s defensive coordinator, Don Martindale. The 57-year-old was not interviewed for any head teaching vacancies this yr, regardless of curiosity on his finish, and I may see this being a postseason the place he lets us all know what a mistake that was. In most conditions when the league’s second-best scoring protection is going through the second-best scoring offense, I’ll favor the quarterback. On this case, Baltimore intrigues me in opposition to Josh Allen due to all of the Ravens’ expertise and institutional reminiscence. Is there an opportunity they might play him in a manner that he has not seen earlier than?
What may go mistaken?: Lamar Jackson was situationally efficient in opposition to the Titans, which ended up being sufficient. His efficiency final Sunday although was extra according to a middle-tier playoff quarterback than the form of efficiency that may diversify and raise a run-first offense sufficient to take all of them the way in which. Marquise Brown’s starring function final week in opposition to the Titans may bode nicely for a state of affairs the place Jackson has extra possibilities to stretch the sphere, however and not using a weapon set that lends itself to extra confounding seems to be for opposing defenses, there may be extra stress driving on Jackson alone.
7. Cleveland Browns
Greatest key to profitable all of it: I notice I’m about to sound like Terry Bradshaw right here, however Cleveland’s capability to manage the road of scrimmage and run the soccer has been vital to its success this yr and if the Browns someway handle to get on a roll like that in opposition to the Chiefs, there are few groups which can be going to have the ability to steal sufficient possessions to maintain tempo. Cleveland was imperfect within the win over the Steelers, however with their finest offensive linemen now in place and a head coach extra in tune with clock administration, the Browns could possibly be one of many hidden strongmen of the postseason this yr.
What may go mistaken?: Due to Kevin Stefanski’s system and a rebuilt offensive line, Baker Mayfield has been surprisingly efficient in opposition to the blitz this yr. His earlier two seasons have been a relentless, maddening take a look at how an offensive coordinator can grasp certainly one of his finest gamers out to dry, forcing him to drift within the pocket endlessly on the lookout for choices. Mayfield just isn’t Russell Wilson, although, which is why Stefanski has executed a very good job inserting him inside parameters and giving him outlined choices. That mentioned, the Chiefs have one of many 5 finest opposing passer scores and completion percentages when blitzing this season. If Mayfield begins to battle and reverts to his pocket meandering days, Cleveland is in huge hassle.
8. Los Angeles Rams
Greatest key to profitable all of it: We’ve written about the Rams’ historic defensive effort this season, which landed Brandon Staley some well-deserved buzz in the course of the teaching course of. If they’ll someway, miraculously restrict their opponents to 14 to 17 factors over the course of a sport, permitting a battered offense to maintain up, then they’ve an opportunity. Will we think about that taking place in opposition to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers? In all probability not. Is it potential? Sure. This Rams employees is exceptionally nicely ready on a weekly foundation, which is the one factor that perpetually retains them within the dialog. If they’ll reap the benefits of Inexperienced Bay’s (relative) mushy spot in opposition to the run, we may see a state of affairs the place they pull of a miraculous win and get their QB again to preventing energy sufficient to make some critical noise.
What may go mistaken?: A struggling Jared Goff, who was nursing a damaged thumb and slinging knuckleballs all through the sport final week can stroll right into a buzzsaw this weekend in opposition to the Packers. Seattle’s inconsistent protection helped, whereas Inexperienced Bay can successfully restrict huge performs and stays tough to attain on within the crimson zone.
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