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It lastly occurred. For the primary time since 2016, somebody not named Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer gained a Grand Slam title. Granted, Djokovic needed to get himself disqualified for it to occur, however it occurred nonetheless. That, adopted by Daniil Medvedev’s scintillating unbeaten run to victory within the ATP Finals in London offers rise to an essential query. Because the 2021 tennis calendar kicks off in earnest, we should as soon as once more ask whether or not it’s lastly the beginning of the tip for the “Huge 3.” So, has the brand new era lastly arrived? Or was 2020 merely a slight lull for 3 of the best males’s tennis gamers of all time? We check out what you possibly can anticipate this 12 months.
2021 Males’s Tennis Predictions
The previous guard nonetheless going sturdy
In 2021, the “Huge 3” gained two of the three Slams out there (Wimbledon was cancelled as a result of coronavirus). This was even supposing Federer missed two and Nadal chose not to defend his US Open title. Solely two different Grand Slam finals since 2004 haven’t featured at the least one of many “Huge 3.” (The 2014 US Open ultimate noticed Marin Cilic defeat Kei Nishikori. In 2016, Andy Murray defeated Milos Raonic within the Wimbledon ultimate.) As such, you possibly can be forgiven for pondering their vice grip on males’s tennis is perhaps loosening barely.
Nevertheless, Djokovic didn’t lose a tour-level match in 2020 earlier than defaulting at Flushing Meadows, so I feel it’s truthful to say {that a} little bit of luck performed its half in ending that streak. The query is: Will 2021 convey the beginning of a brand new dominant streak for the “Huge 3,” or will extra newcomers make their debut in Slam finals within the close to future? To reply that, we have to perceive simply how troublesome it’s to win a Slam off the “Huge 3.”
Since 2004, solely 5 males (Thiem is now the sixth) have gained a Grand Slam outdoors of the “Huge 3.” The truth is, the timeless trio account for 56 of the 67 Slams titles since then. They gained at the least three yearly besides 2016, after they gained two. Of the 5 males to greatest them in that point, solely Andy Murray was a constant menace to their rule. The truth that there was, for a time, the idea of a “Huge 4” is a testomony to only how efficient his problem was. Stan Wawrinka additionally gained three Slams, however will not be his unplayable greatest constantly sufficient to be thought of a daily menace. The actual fact is, solely Murray upset the standing frequently during the last 17 years. How shut then are the following era to doing the identical?
New children on the block
Of the brand new era, these thought of doubtless Slam winners within the close to future are Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Dominic Thiem. I additionally need to give particular point out to Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime, who each present heaps of expertise. Each appear like protected bets to be contenders for large trophies within the years to come back. Nevertheless, they aren’t fairly able to be on this dialog simply but. An excellent place to begin when assessing the 4 contenders listed above is to check the place they’re now with the place the “Huge 3” have been at their age. Let’s begin with Zverev. Of the 4, he confirmed probably the most promise on the youngest age.
Zverev won the ATP Finals at 21. He gained his maiden Tour-level title at 19, and lots of had him tipped as the following large factor in tennis. He seemed to be the primary actual menace the “Huge 3” would face since Murray was sidelined with damage previous to the 2018 Australian Open. Comparatively talking he’s accomplished effectively, with three Masters 1000 titles and an ATP Finals win. Nevertheless, he underperforms in Slams, solely reaching his first ultimate final 12 months on the US Open. Earlier than that ultimate, he had made solely two quarterfinal appearances and one semifinal look. Fairly poor returns for somebody ranked constantly within the prime 5 or 6 on the earth for the final 4 years. Compared, every of the “Huge 3” had gained a Main by the point they have been 21, they usually carried on successful them.
By the point they reached 24–the age Zverev turns in April–Djokovic had two Grand Slam victories to his title. Nadal had six already, and Federer had 5 by 24. Nadal and Federer had reached No.1 on the earth by then, with Djokovic first incomes prime billing a number of months later. I feel it’s protected to say then that Zverev doesn’t stack as much as them when evaluating the early years of their careers.
Thiem, Medvedev, and Tsitsipas
As for Thiem, he’s already 27 and gained his first Slam 4 months in the past. He was a comparatively late bloomer, thought of a clay court docket specialist till current years. He has proven he can go toe-to-toe with the “Huge 3” from time to time. Nevertheless, his recent battle with Djokovic on the ATP Finals exhibits there may be nonetheless a gulf in high quality between Thiem and the “Huge 3.” Thiem won the match, however Djokovic was massively off his recreation and nonetheless had a 4-0 lead in a 3rd set tiebreak he ought to have gained. The identical was true in Australia earlier within the 12 months. As soon as Djokovic discovered his recreation, Thiem couldn’t sustain. It seems, then, that Thiem and Zverev are unlikely to be critical challengers for Grand Slams. What about different two challengers in Tsitsipas and Medvedev?
Medvedev turns 25 in February and is but to win a Grand Slam, having made just one ultimate. He does have 3 Masters 1000 titles and an ATP Finals to his title, however doesn’t appear to own the sport required to repeatedly be within the combine for Grand Slam titles, notably given how hard-court oriented his recreation is.
Tsitsipas does little to vary the narrative both, as he’s but to succeed in a Grand Slam ultimate. He has an ATP Finals win to his title, however little else of significance. The truth is, like Zverev, he has developed a repute for underperforming on the 4 large tournaments (see his first-round exit in Wimbledon 2019). It seems to be like this crop of younger expertise is unlikely to vary the Grand Slam narrative within the close to future. Maybe hope could be present in the truth that the previous guard are beginning to ease off the gasoline?
Change within the close to future?
Sadly, on nearer inspection, that line of pondering solely brings extra unhealthy information for the younger hopefuls. Federer won in Australia in 2018 at 37, and will have gained Wimbledon in 2019 at 38. (Sorry, Djokovic followers. Federer choked, however that’s a matter for one more time). Djokovic and Nadal are six and 5 years his junior, respectively, and there’s no cause to assume they can not proceed dominating the sport for 3 or 4 extra years at the least.
In actuality, meaning three of the 4 Slams out there are primarily locks (Australia for Djokovic and Roland Garros for Nadal are mere formalities, and you may ask Federer how hard it is to put Djokovic away at Wimbledon). That leaves the US Open. The Slam that has appeared probably the most open lately, however a Slam every of the “Huge 3” have nonetheless had success on and so nonetheless no simple feat to win. The place does that go away the way forward for males’s tennis then?
Nicely, in the event you’re a fan of thrilling tennis then preserve watching. New gamers like Jannik Sinner, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Dennis Shapovalov have purchased flare and persona to the game in bunches. If, nonetheless, you’re hoping to see an finish to the dominance of the “Huge 3,” I recommend you come again in three or 4 years and check out once more then. In any other case you possibly can pray that Andy Murray makes it again to his peak stage. Once he shakes of the recent setback of a positive COVID-19 test, hopefully we’ll then have a “Huge 4.”
For now, sit again and revel in what must be one other 12 months of brilliance from three of the very best ever to step onto a tennis court docket. 2021 will not be completely different, however it would nonetheless certainly be spectacular.
Predominant Photograph from Getty.
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