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With the NFL inching ever nearer to formally announcing a 17-game season, I made a decision it was time to replace the projections for the approaching actuality. Most Fantasy Football leagues are weekly leagues, so the modifications are extra about exhibiting extra life like numbers than altering participant’s worth relative to one another.
Principally.
As a result of soccer is a violent sport, I’d count on extra accidents in a 17-game season than what we expertise in a 16-game season. Will it’s precisely consistent with the 5.8% enhance in video games? That is debatable, but when something I would lean extra in the direction of the harm fee going up by extra. In spite of everything, the gamers will play extra weeks in a row as properly, for the reason that league is not including one other bye week.
The place that considerations me most in that regard is operating again, with quarterback on the other finish of that spectrum. It is extra of a rankings dialogue than a projections dialogue, however I do suppose it is attainable an extended season makes quarterbacks barely extra fascinating and operating backs barely much less fascinating.
The one blanket assertion I could make in regards to the change in projections is that the separation on the high seems much more extreme. Christian McCaffrey is now projected to attain 70 extra Fantasy factors than every other operating again (and 208 extra Fantasy factors than RB170). Patrick Mahomes now has a 55-point benefit over QB2 and his projection is 103 factors away from QB12. Travis Kelce is projected for 53 extra Fantasy factors than Darren Waller. And a few of these projections look a little bit foolish, as properly.
- Patrick Mahomes is projected for five,234 passing yards and 500.05 Fantasy factors. That is solely 243 yards shy of Peyton Manning’s single-season file
- Christian McCaffrey is projected for two,300 yards from scrimmage. That is solely 209 yards shy of Chris Johnson’s mark.
- Travis Kelce is projected for 1,408 receiving yards, simply eight yards off his record-breaking 2020.
In different phrases, it is best to most likely prepare for some data to fall. You additionally have to recalibrate your affinity for spherical numbers. I’ve obtained 31 receivers projected for a minimum of 1,000 yards receiving and 19 operating backs projected for 1,000 yards dashing. These marks not signify something near greatness when you think about you solely have to common 59 yards per sport to achieve the mark.
And at quarterback, the numbers are much more jarring. There are 27 quarterbacks projected to throw for 4,000 yards. 4 projected for five,000 (Solely eight quarterbacks have performed that ever). And, as an indication of the altering occasions, 13 quarterbacks projected to run for a minimum of 300 yards.
The opposite place the 17-game projection actually stands proud is tight finish, even in case you take away Kelce. The distinction between No. 2 (Darren Waller) and No. 5 (T.J. Hockenson) is almost Fantasy factors. One other 20-plus Fantasy factors separates Hockenson from No. 12 (Austin Hooper). Possibly the additional sport will assist individuals to extra clearly see the distinction between the elite tight ends and the remaining.
We’ve got an extended offseason to totally digest what this implies for Fantasy, nevertheless it does make me extra considering getting each an elite quarterback and an elite tight finish, as I did in our current mock draft. Because the offseason progresses we’ll have extra on what to anticipate from a 17-game 2021 season.
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