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Did you see it?
A minute into the fourth quarter of the NBA season opener, James Harden dribbled casually by the lane, then hit a slicing Joe Harris heading to the ring. What may need been a layup was rejected to Brook Lopez on the rim, robbing Harris of two factors and Harden of an help — and in the end leaving each our Nets performs underneath as a substitute of over, as we played them.
That’s how shut the margins will be within the NBA, and it’s a very good reminder to not panic. The season is a marathon, not a dash, and we now have tons of and tons of of props forward of us this 12 months. We gained’t win each single guess, not even shut. Typically, just like the 76ers, we simply must take a deep breath and belief the method.
These prop strains will probably be a bit wonky early on. We don’t know precisely what minutes or roles to count on and even which guys are wholesome or enjoying, and neither do the books. Count on the strains to fluctuate lots as we settle in over this primary week, however belief your instincts whenever you spot a play you want and pounce earlier than the worth is gone.
For individuals who are new to this text, we’ll be utilizing the Action Labs Player Prop tool to match our NBA projections to the props posted at a wide range of sportsbooks. Every guess is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the absolute best grade.
Under, I’ve laid out three prop bets that I’m enjoying, the case for every guess and the perfect books to search out odds on these participant props.
NBA Participant Props & Picks
LaMelo Ball, over 5.5 rebounds (+105)
Pacers at Hornets | Pacers -1 |
Time | 7 p.m. ET |
Finest Guide | BetMGM |
LaMelo Ball is the reigning Rookie of the 12 months, and what a debut marketing campaign it was. He averaged 15.7 factors, 5.9 rebounds, and 6.1 assists his first season within the league, dazzling crowds with spotlight passes on the nightly.
These numbers truly obscure Ball’s nice rookie marketing campaign a bit. In the course of the month of February, LaMelo actually stood out. With the Hornets a bit shorthanded, Ball received further minutes, enjoying nearly 35 MPG, and he leapt to over 20 PPG throughout that span. That was largely because of the absence of Devonte’ Graham from the Charlotte guard rotation, and now that Graham has moved on to New Orleans, Ball must be a everlasting fixture in Charlotte’s lineup with loads of minutes.
Ball is an enormous level guard at 6-foot-6, and he’s a wonderful rebounder for a guard due to his measurement. He averaged a rebound each 4.86 minutes as a rookie. At that fee, he would solely want 26.8 minutes to go over this rebounding line on common, and it’s apparent he ought to get effectively greater than that the majority nights going ahead.
As a starter final season, Ball went over 5.5 boards in 17 of his 31 video games, overlaying this line 55% of the time. That was even higher over Ball’s closing 10 video games after he returned from an extended harm spell, when he went over 5.5 rebounds in seven of these 10. And now that we’re seeing a stronger, extra bodily LaMelo within the preseason, he ought to have a good simpler time snagging boards.
I feel this line is a rebound low and possibly will get to six.5 fairly rapidly. That’s nearer to what I count on from Melo, in order that leaves actual worth right here, particularly at plus cash. We project Ball proper at 6.5 boards, and I’ll play to -120.
Robert Williams, over 14.5 factors + rebounds (-110)
Celtics at Knicks | Knicks -1.5 |
Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
Finest Guide | PointsBet |
Of us, it’s Timelord SZN.
Robert Williams has at all times produced whereas on the courtroom. He’s an outrageous athlete, even by NBA requirements. Williams swallows pictures complete on protection, and he leaps previous opponents for rebounds or alley oops like he’s enjoying towards junior excessive schoolers on the market.
The issue has been staying on the courtroom. Partly on account of fixed foul bother and partly to simply not wanting like he is aware of the place to be at occasions, Williams has had a tough time getting constant minutes. That led to means an excessive amount of Tristan Thompson final season in Boston, and it’s in all probability a part of why the Celtics added Al Horford.
However Williams is wanting extra dependable currently and as springy as ever, and with Thompson gone and Horford out for the season opener, the Celtics don’t have a lot selection however to offer Timelord as many minutes as he can deal with. And if he will get sufficient time, he’s going to supply and will smash this quantity.
Williams performed at the least 22 minutes in 20 video games final season. In these 20 video games, he averaged 19.8 factors + rebounds, and he went over 14.5 in 18 of the video games, overlaying this line 90% of the time and often with ease. Williams is beginning, and with Enes Kanter and possibly Grant Williams the one different “large” choices on the roster, he ought to get enjoying time effectively north of twenty-two minutes if he can keep out of foul bother.
You by no means understand how these minutes will go together with Timelord, but when he truly performs sufficient, he might simply prime this line by practically halftime. You may isolate factors or rebounds in the event you favor, however they’ll come collectively if he will get the minutes so I favor to play them each. At 14.5, I’d play all the way in which to -175, and I don’t thoughts enjoying over 15.5 if it will get there both.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, over 4.5 assists (+115)
Jazz at Thunder | Jazz -13.5 |
Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET |
Finest Guide | BetMGM |
As I went again over the information from final 12 months this offseason, one of many missed gamers who leapt off the web page to me was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This dude was an absolute star final season — we simply collectively forgot to note and hype him sufficient as a result of the Thunder have been so horrible and since SGA was means too good to tank proper so Oklahoma Metropolis shut him down for the ultimate couple months.
I feel Gilgeous-Alexander may need been a prime 10 guard final season. He’s already that good.
If he’s that good, OKC could also be caught with one other tough tanking choice later within the 12 months, however proper now Gilgeous-Alexander is a full go, and all of the numbers from final season guarantee us he ought to play a full minutes load when he’s able to go. So how did SGA do within the 35 video games we truly received final 12 months? Fairly darn effectively. He averaged 23.7 factors, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.9 assists, and he did that as a 22-year-old with treasured little assist and a brilliant younger roster round him.
That half actually hasn’t modified. The Thunder have intriguing younger expertise like rookie Josh Giddey and sophomore Aleksej Pokusevski, however SGA remains to be the engine of this offense and can get all of the touches and utilization he can deal with.
Gilgeous-Alexander noticed an enormous leap in factors and assists final 12 months with Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder out of the image, and that is sensible. Giddey will get some touches, however he’s a rookie coming over from worldwide play so it’ll be a steep studying curve. SGA will get his and already did simply fantastic as a creator within the preseason, averaging an help each 4.4 minutes. That’s even higher than final season’s breakout, when he was at one dime each 5.7 minutes.
Even at that previous fee, something north of 25 minutes offers us an amazing probability at an over, and if the help fee goes up this 12 months, this line will find yourself far too low. SGA went over 4.5 assists in 25 of his 35 video games a 12 months in the past, overlaying this quantity 71% of the time. I feel the books are overreacting to Giddey’s presence right here. Gilgeous-Alexander will see greater than his fair proportion of the ball, and he’ll put up numbers even towards a tricky Jazz protection.
That is one other line that I feel will probably be at the least a full help larger quickly sufficient. And we’re getting it at plus cash? Appears to be like like OKC isn’t the one one feeling a bit Giddey. I’ll play at any plus quantity or right down to -120.
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