Should Atlanta be concerned about QB success rate?

The Falcons have an getting old veteran at quarterback, a top-five decide, and each a brand new common supervisor and head coach. Typically, these are indicators {that a} workforce is on the verge of a rebuild and doubtless searching for a brand new franchise quarterback. With only one QB on the roster, Atlanta will nearly definitely add one by the draft, however by which spherical?

After two pre-draft trades, the primary three picks at the moment are locks to be quarterbacks. The San Francisco 49ers, who traded as much as No. 3, publicly confirmed their intentions, and New York, who traded away Sam Darnold to the Panthers, have revealed their draft plans as nicely. This implies the Falcons’ decide at No. 4 is the true begin of the 2021 NFL draft. And whereas Atlanta might very nicely choose a quarterback, this could imply taking the fourth-best participant at a place that isn’t excessive on the workforce’s precedence record.

This begs the query: How profitable are QBs taken within the high 10? Success for a quarterback is outlined by efficiency, consistency stage, and longevity with the workforce the participant was chosen by. Some folks wish to throw in workforce wins, however this includes outdoors variables and subsequently, is one thing I’ll pass over.

These numbers symbolize the quarterbacks chosen within the high 10 of every draft from the years 2000 to 2018. In complete, there have been 32 quarterbacks chosen, 13 had been No. 1 total picks. These numbers replicate every quarterback’s tenure with the preliminary workforce they had been drafted by. For context, I’m trying previous the Chargers drafting Eli Manning and solely associating him with the Giants, similar goes for Philip Rivers.

NOTE: Patrick Mahomes, John Allen and Baker Mayfield had been disregarded in “common seasons” as a result of them nonetheless taking part in on their rookie contracts with their preliminary groups.

One thing you might discover is the regular decline in manufacturing and the low period of time spent with the preliminary drafted workforce. Of the 32 quarterbacks in query, 19 of them did not final past their rookie contracts. Jared Goff and Carson Wentz each signed extensions however had been traded away earlier than they absolutely kicked in. Their fifth years had been exercised previous to the 2019 season and saved them with their drafted groups by the 2020 NFL season.

As you see, a majority of quarterbacks do hit the three,200-yard benchmark. The truth is, 21 of the 32 top-10 picks do. Nevertheless, solely 28 p.c of these quarterbacks replicate this similar success greater than 5 occasions of their careers. Solely Eli Manning (14), Philip Rivers (14), and Matt Ryan (12) have replicated this success 10 or extra occasions.

To go a step additional, of the 14 QBs who handed for 4,000 yards or extra, solely 28 p.c of those quarterbacks handed for this many yards greater than 5 occasions. As soon as once more, Philip Rivers (11) and Matt Ryan (10) are the one two gamers who did this 10 or extra occasions. Like those who handed for greater than 3,200 yards, this feat was additionally achieved a mean of 4 occasions.

Through the use of the identical knowledge, solely two QBs have posted over 4,800 yards greater than as soon as: Matt Ryan (2) and Matthew Stafford (2). Eli Manning, Jameis Winston and Patrick Mahomes have all performed it simply as soon as. Albeit, Mahomes nonetheless has loads of time left to broaden on this. To common out, this feat has solely been achieved one time.

It’s additionally necessary to notice that these benchmarks set with the NFL’s former 16-game schedule. Now that the NFL added an additional recreation, the benchmark for achievement can be pushed even additional. Guys like Carson Wentz, Eli Manning, and Baker Mayfield would common over 4,000 yards per season, one thing they did not do in 16-game seasons.

The toughest space of manufacturing to attain is getting over 40 touchdowns in a season. Of the 32 quarterbacks, solely three gamers obtained over this mark and solely did so as soon as. Matt Ryan just isn’t one among them, however he was solely two touchdowns away in 2016, and 5 away in 2018 from becoming a member of the 40-touchdown membership.

So when assessing which quarterback to usher in, the Falcons have to verify they will replicate the present manufacturing of Matt Ryan. Throughout his 13-year NFL profession, Ryan has averaged 4,353 yards passing by a 16-game schedule. When bearing in mind the final 5 seasons and the extra seventeenth recreation this 12 months, Ryan is projected to go for practically 5,000 passing yards in 2021.

One other 4,000-yard season in 2021 and Ryan will go Peyton Manning for the report for many consecutive seasons. Moreover, Ryan has essentially the most seasons by which he has handed for 4,500 yards or extra, with seven.

By trying on the knowledge readily available, it’s unlikely the Falcons get that very same type of manufacturing from any rookie. It’s also necessary to notice that the No. 6 total choice within the 2020 NFL draft did shatter the rookie passing report with 4,336 yards. Nevertheless, till Justin Herbert will get extra expertise below his belt, we don’t know if this stage of manufacturing shall be sustained.

What if the Falcons don’t select a QB with the fourth decide? Clearly, the deeper within the draft you go, the much less seemingly you’re to hit on a constant starter that provides you excessive manufacturing worth. Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott are the one quarterbacks not drafted in high 40 to begin all 16 video games of their rookie seasons since 1978.

This isn’t essentially to discourage the concept of choosing a quarterback altogether, as every has to begin their profession off one way or the other. That is simply to indicate that for each Mitchell Trubisky, there’s a Patrick Mahomes, and for each Matt Ryan, there’s a Joe Flacco.