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PITTSBURGH — Final September, days earlier than the NFL season started, the Arizona Cardinals signed receiver DeAndre Hopkins to a monstrous contract that included $43 million in assured cash and a median annual wage of $27 million over the lifetime of the contract.
Six months later, issues are a lot totally different. The NFL receiver market went from thriving to a close to collapse.
Receivers hoping to strike it wealthy in free company had been deeply upset. The market was down for nearly each receiver, together with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who agreed to return to the Steelers on a one-year deal for $8 million.
The richest receiver contract throughout this free-agency interval belongs to Kenny Golladay, who signed a three-year deal value $18 million a yr with the Giants. However that contract is an outlier. The others had been nearer in value to Smith-Schuster’s deal and a far cry from the contracts receivers had been signing in recent times.
Hopkins is one in every of 4 NFL receivers making $20 million or extra per season and one in every of 16 making $15 million or extra.
Extensively considered the highest receiver within the league, Hopkins is the prototypical game-breaker and earns $5 million extra per yr than the subsequent highest-paid receiver. However there are every kind of receivers making $15 million a season or extra, together with possession receivers equivalent to Jarvis Landry, who is commonly in comparison with Smith-Schuster.
Why are receivers abruptly being undervalued?
The pandemic and its monetary fallout is a part of the rationale, but it surely’s not the largest issue. The largest issue is the variety of NFL-ready receivers who’re coming into the league on an annual foundation. This yr is not any totally different.
“There’s going to be a whole lot of depth at extensive receiver all the best way round,” ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper mentioned. “I just like the extensive receiver place rather a lot. It is the strongest place total on this draft.”
And it has been that manner for just a few years now. Final yr there have been 16 receivers taken within the first three rounds of the draft. This yr is equally robust.
NFL Community draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has eight receivers in his listing of high 50 prospects and mentioned there may be nice depth after them, too.
“All the best way into the fourth and fifth spherical there are going to be good extensive receivers once more,” Jeremiah mentioned.
In essence, groups are betting they’ll get a participant within the draft similar to Smith-Schuster and at a less expensive worth on a controllable contract for the subsequent 4-5 years.
The operating again market has been depressed for a decade or extra. They’ve seen their value on the open market lower, and there was a trickle-down impact to the draft.
Operating backs are hardly ever chosen within the first spherical, and there’s a perception amongst entrance workplace sorts that the worth is getting them within the second spherical and after.
The receiver market just isn’t prone to get as unhealthy because the operating again market as a result of operating backs have a shorter shelf life than receivers, however there are some similarities within the positions which might be affecting salaries.
Along with the straightforward economics of provide and demand, NFL basic managers have come to the belief that mid- and late-round receivers might be simply as efficient as first-round receivers.
The Steelers have confirmed this to be true through the years. They have not taken a receiver within the first spherical of the draft since they drafted Santonio Holmes in 2006. But they’re thought of the league’s gold normal in the case of figuring out and drafting receivers.
Since then, they’ve loved nice success in different rounds. Antonio Brown was a sixth-round choose; Martavis Bryant a fourth-round choose; Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Markus Wheaton and Diontae Johnson third-round picks; and Smith-Schuster, James Washington and Chase Claypool second-round picks.
And Smith-Schuster is the uncommon participant to signal a second contract with the Steelers. The one different one in every of that group to do it was Brown.
For essentially the most half, the Steelers cycle by means of receivers and alter them out each few years.
One different issue is the dear franchise tag quantity on receivers. This yr it was $15.9 million. Chris Godwin of Tampa and Allen Robinson of Chicago had been the one receivers to get tagged. In 2022, the projected franchise tag is predicted to be $19 million.
This, together with some current first-round receiver busts equivalent to John Ross, Mike Williams and Laquon Treadwell, has given basic managers purpose to proceed with some warning.
In 2019, two tight ends — T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant — had been chosen earlier than any receivers. The identical might occur this yr with Florida tight finish Kyle Pitts being projected among the many high picks.
The franchise tag quantity for tight ends this yr is simply $9.6 million.
“Have a look at the franchise quantity and take a look at the distinction in cash,” Jeremiah mentioned. “I feel there is a distinction of like 6 million bucks. So not solely do you may have a uncommon mismatch participant that is onerous to seek out, however when you get to the second contract he’ll be extraordinarily inexpensive in comparison with if you happen to had been going to take a receiver with that very same choose.
“So that you’re getting the identical degree of impression with out having to pay that very same degree of value. To me, I feel that might be one thing that might be a tiebreaker while you’re making that call.”
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