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Jones Is aware of is again within the prediction chair and sees a West Ham victory at Fulham and in addition thinks Everton are a giant worth to upset Manchester United.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal, Saturday 12.30pm
My religion in Aston Villa being a real top-six contender is wavering. Villa have misplaced 4 of their final six Premier League video games – as many as they’d of their earlier 18. Have groups labored out the best way to cease their intelligent interchanges by way of midfield? Of their final two matches, Villa have solely registered 15 photographs and conceded 39 on their objective.
Arsenal will not be affording them a lot house both on this one. In accordance with anticipated targets conceded knowledge, their season tally of 11.48 away from dwelling ranks them because the fourth greatest defence within the league. That is much more spectacular contemplating they’ve already performed Manchester Metropolis, Liverpool and Manchester United on the highway this season.
This one seems set to be a low-scoring affair settled by a advantageous margin. I am on the fence with the outcome.
An angle to assault at an interesting worth is Ollie Watkins to have a header on target with Sky Bet at 4/1. Solely Patrick Bamford (22), Aleksandar Mitrovic (19) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (18) have had extra headers on objective than the in-form Watkins this season with 5 of these hitting the goal. He managed to attain a header within the reverse fixture, too.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Ollie Watkins to have a headed shot on target (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Burnley vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm, reside on Sky Sports activities Premier League (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)
It will be a mistake to evaluate Burnley on their final two performances. They might have mustered simply three photographs throughout their final two Premier League video games (one vs Chelsea, two vs Man Metropolis), failing to register a single effort on the right track in these matches, however higher might be anticipated right here.
Saying that, the penny simply might need dropped with Brighton.
Of their final two spectacular victories they have been fairly ruthless as an alternative of fruitless in each containers. All of the efficiency knowledge suggests their course of is one among a top-half aspect and in the event that they’ve now discovered a stability inside their play at each ends of the pitch, an increase up the desk may very well be forthcoming, as highlighted on this column earlier than the Liverpool recreation the place they had been 16/1 for a high 10 end.
I believe they’re going to nick this one.
The place of Leandro Trossard in an attacking central function simply off Neal Maupay has caught my eye, particularly in how Sky Guess have priced up their first goalscorer market. Regardless of scoring the winner towards Tottenham and registering a shot on the right track in every of his final three appearances enjoying within the superior function, we’re capable of get a juicy 13/2 on him opening the scoring.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2
BETTING ANGLE: Leandro Trossard to score first (13/2 with Sky Bet)
Premier League predictions: Jones Is aware of is again along with his insights
Newcastle United vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)
They will need to have put one thing within the water up on Tyneside as Newcastle have grow to be enjoyable to observe. There’s rather more power within the staff and the again 4 are pushing greater up the pitch. Of their final three matches, they’ve managed to fireplace 56 makes an attempt at objective – that is greater than they mustered of their earlier seven matches mixed earlier than that and Allan Saint-Maximin has but to play from the beginning.
Sure, Steve Bruce’s boys have misplaced two of these three fixtures however a minimum of now there is a little bit of spark and delight of their soccer. It is all of the locals need.
Southampton make the lengthy journey north with issues, too. This present four-game dropping run is the longest dropping run in Ralph Hasenhuttl’s league managerial profession though his injury-list is easing up.
It is unlikely they’re going to shut up store with the gamers they’ve obtainable so this may very well be an action-packed recreation if Newcastle arrive in no-fear mode as soon as once more. With that in thoughts, I’m happy to take a swing at the 9/2 for Newcastle to register 16 or more shots at goal. Additionally, Miguel Almiron is changing into an vital participant simply behind Callum Wilson and charges as a really fascinating proposition to have a shot on target from outside the box at 4/1.
He is had 4 photographs from vary in his final 4 matches, hitting the goal twice and crossbar as soon as. In case you mix the 16 or extra photographs angle with the Almiron one, you get a tasty 28/1 shot. That is value a swing.
The outright costs look fairly tight to me, so when unsure play the draw.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-2
BETTING ANGLE: Miguel Almiron to have a shot on the right track from exterior the realm & Newcastle to have 16 or extra photographs (28/1 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs West Ham United, Saturday 5.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities Premier League
Saturday sixth February 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
West Ham fluked their technique to one other win on Wednesday evening… solely joking Hammers followers. No have to nibble at me.
A key facet in my world of constructing worthwhile betting choices is to confess when new proof comes alongside to vary a earlier mind-set. For West Ham to be able to dismantling each Crystal Palace and Aston Villa brings ahead the case that there is extra to this David Moyes staff than simply being reliant on a robust defensive course of and set items. It is taken them to 38 factors – essentially the most factors they’ve had at this stage of a top-division season for 35 years.
Michail Antonio is totally key to those spectacular latest performances. He is now totally match and hitting efficiency ranges we noticed after the primary lockdown the place he was important to their Premier League survival. He is now main the road in a far superior aspect to that one with the Czech duo of Tomas Soucek and Vladimír Coufal offering a lot metal alongside the ever-improving Declan Rice. What a participant he might grow to be.
Antonio solely has two targets to his identify in his final 5 matches however no participant within the Premier League has posted the next anticipated targets quantity in that point (3.72). Towards flaky Fulham, who mirror a lot of their gamers – silky to have a look at however go lacking at huge moments in matches, he ought to discover one other method by way of to objective. The 13/5 for an away win and Antonio to score makes plenty of sense.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2
BETTING ANGLE: Michail Antonio to score and West Ham to win (13/5 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Everton, Saturday 8pm, reside on Sky Sports activities Premier League
Saturday sixth February 7:45pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Everton are a big price here at 5/1, aren’t they?
Carlo Ancelotti’s staff will not win any awards for his or her type of soccer, however they’ve gained seven of their opening 10 Premier League away video games, together with the final 4 on the bounce.
Solely Tottenham and Manchester Metropolis have conceded fewer targets on the highway than Everton’s 10 this season as Ancelotti has proven his expertise and tactical nous to make the Toffees a staff with nice defensive unity. They’re going to certainly set-up to stifle United, who nonetheless do not look comfy making an attempt to interrupt down well-oiled defences at dwelling.
In case you rid the freakish win over Southampton out of your minds, then it is very exhausting to get carried away with United’s document when requested to make the working in video games. In dwelling matches towards West Brom, Wolves and Sheffield United, they scored simply three targets and managed just one at Outdated Trafford when confronted with Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester Metropolis and Tottenham. They’ve additionally conceded 15 targets at dwelling within the league up to now this season – greater than at this stage in any
earlier Premier League marketing campaign. And the anticipated targets towards determine of 13.5 backs that poor metric up.
Everton are able to irritating the hosts and utilizing their countering expertise with Richarlison and Lucas Digne down the left, plus their huge menace from set items, to make this a tough night for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1
BETTING ANGLE: Everton to win to nil (11/1 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham Hotspur vs West Bromwich Albion, Sunday 12pm
Like many Premier League matches, the match outcome and proper rating market symbolize no robust betting angles on this one. For the needs of a prediction, a house win is clearly the more than likely outcome because the Baggies will wilt beneath vital attacking strain, like they’ve carried out all season. However you already knew that.
Nonetheless, West Brom to get caught offside three or extra occasions at 9/4 with Sky Guess does attraction for these searching for an angle in.
A change to an unashamedly direct strategy beneath Sam Allardyce has seen an upturn within the quantity of occasions West Brom are getting caught offside. In 4 of the final 10 video games in all competitions, the Baggies have been caught offside three or extra occasions. And with Spurs blissful to permit opposition loads of territory – solely Liverpool have caught extra gamers offside this season than Jose Mourinho’s aspect – then West Brom’s long-ball strategy can yield three offsides.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: West Brom to have three or more offsides (9/4 with Sky Bet)
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Leicester Metropolis, Sunday 2.15pm, reside on Sky Sports activities Premier League
This has low-scoring written throughout it. However the markets are in settlement with the under 2.5 goals price much shorter than for your average Premier League encounter at 8/13.
Regardless of with the ability to name again upon Jamie Vardy and Wilfred Ndidi for this one, I am nonetheless not fairly capable of belief Leicester in a recreation the place they’re going to be allowed to have the ball and house in behind might be at a premium.
Since thrashing Manchester Metropolis 5-2, in video games the place they’ve had extra possession that their opponents they’ve taken simply 12 factors from a attainable 33 obtainable with a median anticipated targets determine of simply 1.15 per fixture. That is not wherever close to top-four customary and simply could be the explanation why the Foxes will fall wanting constantly competing with the elite once more this marketing campaign.
Each fixtures final season between these two completed goalless and one other 0-0 makes sense at 8/1.
A betting angle to think about is Youri Tielemans to choose up a reserving.
No staff have tried extra dribbles than Wolves this season with Pedro Neto and Adama Traore blissful to chop in and draw fouls from opponents. No Leicester participant has been dribbled previous greater than Tielemans (39) this season and he ranks third within the total rating of all gamers within the Premier League – solely Conor Gallagher and Bruno Fernandes have been skipped previous extra typically. The providing of 4/1 certainly underestimates the chances of him picking up his fifth booking of the season.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0
BETTING ANGLE: Youri Tielemans to be carded (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Youri Tielemans is 4/1 to choose up a reserving this weekend
Liverpool vs Manchester Metropolis, Sunday 4.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities Premier League
Sunday seventh February 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
Pep Guardiola is a distinct animal this season. Now not does he yearn for ‘stunning soccer’, all he cares about is ‘profitable soccer’, with a specific yearning for clear sheets. In such a congested and frantic season his long-term technique of plotting the best way by way of the season steadily maybe may very well be his best masterstroke but.
Metropolis followers will detest me saying it, however it’s very Sir Alex Ferguson-like. And what did Ferguson do in huge video games away from dwelling? He’d take some extent all day lengthy.
That is why I believe Metropolis are a tad too short at 21/20 here for victory. If the sport is stage pegging with half-hour to go, Guardiola will say thanks very a lot.
A standard theme this season in conferences between the highest three groups has been an absence of targets in accordance with what the market expects. All three fixtures involving Manchester Metropolis, Liverpool and Manchester United have ended as attracts with two of these ending 0-0.
It is most actually related that Liverpool have not scored in any of their final three Premier League dwelling video games, with their present goalless run at Anfield standing at 348 minutes. And whenever you throw in Manchester Metropolis conceding simply 13 targets in 21 Premier League video games this season, conserving a clear sheet in every of their final six, the possibilities of one other 0-0 look fairly believable.
More plausible than the 16/1 on offer, I’d suggest.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0 (16/1 with Sky Bet)
Sheffield United vs Chelsea, Sunday 7.15pm, reside on Sky Sports activities Premier League
Chelsea are susceptible at Bramall Lane with the 4/9 for an away win simply begging to be taken on.
It’s miles too early to be making sweeping statements relating to Thomas Tuchel’s type and skill to take Chelsea locations.
I agreed with Jose Mourinho within the aftermath of Chelsea’s win at Spurs. For all their possession and silky build-up play at Tottenham, Chelsea scored through a penalty and Edouard Mendy did make extra saves than Hugo Lloris.
Spurs weren’t unfortunate however Chelsea did not dominate the sport to the extent that many onlookers urged. Within the three video games beneath Tuchel, Chelsea have created simply two huge probabilities in accordance with Opta – and a type of was that Jorginho penalty. In that interval 15 groups have created extra huge probabilities and contemplating Chelsea have performed Burnley and Wolves at dwelling in that run, it is truly a really worrying statistic. Still want to back them at 4/9?
We have not seen Tuchel’s staff come beneath any vital strain defensively in his first three matches in cost both – however we would right here. And, with Thiago Silva lacking, they are often acquired at.
One in all Tuchel’s tactical tweaks has been to pick Marcos Alonso down the left aspect of his defence. He appears to belief him however people who have watched Alonso sufficient over time know he is very poor positionally. Keep in mind Chelsea’s first-half show towards West Brom in September? Alonso was at fault for 2 of the three targets and by no means performed for Frank Lampard once more after that.
I am anticipating the axis of Chris Basham and Jayden Bogle down the Blades’ proper to reveal Alonso when Chris Wilder’s males get the territory. As my colleague Kate Burlaga identified, no centre-back has created extra probabilities or tried extra take-ons than Basham this season.
His link-up with Bogle was very savvy within the comeback win over West Brom – it was the Blades again to their greatest. A efficiency stage that really beat Chelsea by an mixture rating of 5-2 over two conferences between the groups final season.
Moreover, in his final three dwelling matches the damaging Bogle has had eight photographs on objective which makes the 7/1 for him to have two or more incredibly appealing, particularly up towards Alonso. One objective would possibly simply be sufficient for Wilder’s boys who restricted the 2 Manchester golf equipment to only two targets mixed of their latest away days. The 11/1 for the Blades to win without conceding is certainly a runner.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace, Monday 8pm, reside on Sky Sports activities Premier League
Monday eighth February 7:00pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Attempting to foretell match outcomes and ends in the Premier League is a troublesome job at the very best of occasions however Leeds make it an unattainable one. Since drawing 0-0 with Arsenal on November 22 they’ve gained six and misplaced six of their final 12 matches. Aside from a low-key efficiency at dwelling to Brighton they continue to be fairly constant of their course of however understanding how their course of will have an effect on a sure recreation when it comes to the outcome has been hurting my mind.
Sure, six of Leeds’ 9 Premier League wins this season have been towards groups within the backside half however Palace thumped them 4-1 within the reverse fixture at Selhurst Park and Roy Hodgson’s males arrive right here with back-to-back wins beneath their belt. Like many Premier League soccer matches, all three match outcomes are simply argued with the percentages on provide. With Palace’s damage troubles, I will edge in the direction of a house win with no confidence behind it.
With the best way Leeds play at such relentless velocity, the sport will get stretched on loads of events of their fixtures. Palace prefer to play on the break and rank fourth for many fouls gained this season within the Premier League.
Mateusz Klich often finds himself uncovered chasing again counters and it is no shock to see him ranked third of all gamers within the Premier League for fouls conceded (37). He should give you a good run to pick up his sixth booking of the season at 13/5 with Sky Bet.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
BETTING ADVICE: Mateusz Klich to be carded (13/5 with Sky Bet)
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